Questions Congress Needs to Ask About the Latest NIE
By Larry Johnson on July 23, 2007 at 2:06 AM in Current Affairs, Intelligence, NIE, counterterrorism
by
Larry C Johnson
There is a significant and unexplained disconnect between the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Defending the Homeland and the April 2006 NIE, Trends in Global Terrorism. The 2006 NIE made the case:
United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
Got it? Al Qa’ida is damaged and disrupted.
Now, 15 months later we are informed that Al-Qa’ida is back—-tanned, rested and ready:
Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.
So, how do we get from “seriously damaged” to “regenerated”? According to the latest NIE, a significant share of the blame resides with and in Pakistan. But do we really know what is going on?
A careful reading of the NIE on The Terrorist Threat to the Homeland fails to reveal any empirical or intelligence data to justify the conclusions. For example, if we had intelligence that an increasing number of foreigners had crossed into Waziristan during the last three years, received training, and departed the area then there would be some legitimate basis for concern about a “regenerated” Al-Qa’ida. But no such evidence or facts are proffered to make such a case. That is odd. Even in unclassified key judgments one should expect some reference to the underlying data supporting the assessment that a capability has regenerated. But there is none.
More troubling is the underlying assumption that there are active training camps in this area? Really? Then why are they still standing? Why have we not seen a smoking hole in the ground where these alleged camps once stood? George Bush promised in the wake of 9-11 that a country must decide if it is with us or against us. And that countries that harbored terrorists would pay a price.
Let’s concede that the Waziristan portion of Pakistan is wild and ungovernable by the authorities in Islamabad. If there are such camps then Predator drones armed with hellfire missiles should be taking those camps out. If people trained in those camps are coming out equipped to do terror why have none been arrested or detained?
I agree that Osama Bin Laden and Dr. Ayman al Zawahiri want bad things to happen to Americans and American cities. But their malevolent intent and desires do not translate into hard capabilities. So what is up DNI Director Mike McConnell? Is the DNI and the NIC confusing their fears with reality? It sure looks like it. It is time for the Senate and House intelligence committees to get some firm, clear answers.
“It is time for the Senate and House intelligence committees to get some firm, clear answers.”
Right, now only if we really had Senater and House oversight we then may get some “clear” answers.
Better call Spider Pig for help!
Too funny! Maybe this is how we get our intelligence for the NIE? It does put a whole new meaning to the term secret squirrels…
http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/07/20/280529.aspx
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Direct from DO and the cover shop…
The reference to “the Homeland” is so freaking creepy. That they don’t even refer to us as “America” anymore is so 1984. Gotta love those euphemisms.
The idea that remote areas of Pakistan are safehavens for Osama and friends has been around for years. The old excuse for not taking care of the problem is Musharaf’s delicate position: strongman not in total control, don’t want him overthrown by worse characters, lots of extremists want him dead, etc.
The cynic might think Bush needs Al-Qa’ida. The fear and terror card has been played so much that a ‘regenerated’ Al-Qa’ida could be just what Rove ordered. How far can they take it?
Unfortunately, Pakistan does have nuclear weapons. If anything serious happens in Pakistan, hopefully our glorious leaders won’t make it 10 times worse.
I think the latest NIE is for domestic consumption. Can we trust anything coming from this administration?
“The reference to “the Homeland” is so freaking creepy.”
I am glad someone else feels that way. It is just so blatantly… creepily………just……..not right.
Re Homeland:
Certain of us have long thought that DHS might better be called das Heimatsicherheitsministerium.
These questions are important. Perhaps more important is what is this country doing to prevent an attack here in the states. I don’t mean, simple gwb political rhetoric.
They are all out there talking. What are we to believe? They are lying and there is no threat, Al-Qa’ida has not regroup? They are telling the truth, but are turning a blind eye as before?
Worrisome.
Mr. Johnson - “how do they/the Bushies get from here to there?” It’s called the “big lie.” As you well know. It’s a rhetorical question.
Big lies always reduce one to stating the obvious.
As for dealing with the next “non-domestic/religious” attack on our soil? How ’bout like the Brits? Talk about stating the obvious.
Anyone can attack at any time. Are we to live our lives in fear? If 9/11 changed everything, then the terrorists have already won.
Man, it’s really hard NOT to don the tinfoil hat regarding the folks running our country. First, Chertoff’s “gut” feeling. Now, the NIE and the attendant MSM coverage.
Can we really put the possibility of a false flag operation past these MoFos?
On the issue of “Homeland Security,” when the Nazis set up their Secret State Police the choice of name was purely accidental. William S. Shirer tells the story in “The Rise and Fall of The Third Reich:”
“It originally was established for Prussia by Goering on April 26, 1933, to replace Department IA of the old Prussian political police. He had at first intended to designate it merely as the Secret Police Office (Geheimes Polizei Amt) but the German initials GPA sounded too much like the Russian GPU. An obscure post office employee who had been asked to furnish a franking stamp for the new bureau suggested that it be called the Geheime Staatspolizei, simply the “Secret State Police”–GESTAPO for short–and thus unwittingly created a name the very mention of which was to inspire terror first within Germany and then without.”
THIS IS ONLY A TEST.
Please add this to the list of questions Congress ought to ask about the al Qaeda threat in Pakistan:
This stinks of cover story for a black-op/psy-op
And yes……..the fatherland…….errr homeland is kreepy….. this is THE UNITED STATES of AMERICA!