The Price of Progress
By Larry Johnson on August 31, 2007 at 9:48 PM in Current Affairs
If you caught the intellectual lightweight, Michael O’Hanlon, on CNN this morning you would have been treated to a masterful display of toadying and sucking up that puts the “sick” in sycophant. O’Hanlon continues to insist that his DOD arranged and controlled trip this summer to limited areas of Iraq proved beyond doubt that the surge is working and we are progressing in Iraq.
Of course his confident claims are not attended by any benchmarks or empirical evidence. So as a public service we will take a look at the specifics in Iraq and you can judge for yourself whether or not we are making progress and whether or not we are getting value for our money and the blood of our sons and daughters.
U.S. Casualties:
Compare the current number of U.S. fatalities in Iraq with previous eight month periods for 2006 and 2005. For the first eight months of 2007 there have been 735 American troops killed and 4430 wounded. This is significantly higher than the casualty rate in 2005 or 2006. We have 1000 more dead and wounded this year than last year for the period January-August. The following chart tells the factual story (source, icasualties.org):
Comparison of American Casualties in Iraq
The Iraqi Population:
Higher casualties, by themselves, tell us nothing about progress one way or another. One could make the case that because of the casualties the situation in Iraq has stabilized and Iraqis are rushing to celebrate the “new peace”. Sadly, that is wishful thinking.
The number of Iraqis seeking refuge in the United States is increasing, not diminishing. According to a Reuter’s report this week:
A senior U.S. official said on Tuesday the United States would speed up the immigration of Iraqis who worked with its military in Iraq, after congressional criticism that it has taken in so few since the 2003 invasion.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Ellen Sauerbrey said a faster resettlement policy into the United States this year could more than double the rate of migration.
“Two thousand will have made it to the country, we hope if not by the end of September, by the end of October, and a couple of thousand more in November,” she said.
“So by the end of the calendar year, there might be a possibility we will have moved the entire original 7,000 number that was talked about,” Sauerbrey said, referring to figures for the number of Iraqis recommended by the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for resettlement in the United States.
Iraqis seeking refuge in other countries continues to mount. The BBC today reports:
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari was informed of the new measure by his Syrian counterpart, Walid Muallim, in a telephone conversation on Thursday.
Syria had been the only country in the region to allow Iraqis to enter and stay up to six months without a visa.
The UN refugee agency says 1.4 million Iraqi refugees are living in Syria.
With the number increasing by an estimated 30,000 every month, Syria’s health and education systems are struggling to cope.
The Syrian government estimates the Iraqi refugee crisis is costing it around $1bn a year.
Well. At least the U.S. presence is healing the rift between Sunnis and Shias. Nope! Today’s New York Times details the growing chasm between these groups in Iraq:
In Parliament three months ago, she shouted down her colleagues for standing by as Sunni extremists in Diyala Province killed hundreds of Shiites. When the speaker, a Sunni, smirked, she screamed: “Why are you laughing, Mr. Speaker? I want to know why you’re laughing.” (He waved her away: “Leave it to the women,” he said.)
Ms. Musawi, though loyal to the more moderate Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, also now defends some actions of the Mahdi Army, the militia loyal to Moktada al-Sadr, the anti-American cleric, saying that it has filled a necessary void.
“The government couldn’t protect the people,” she said. “They couldn’t save them. The Sadrists did that.”
When asked about accusations that the Mahdi Army forced innocent Sunnis out of the Hurriya neighborhood, which borders Adel, she said Shiites had no time to sift the innocent from the guilty because Sunnis were killing Shiites.
She says the basic problem is that too many Sunnis will never accept Shiite rule. Just as galling, she said, they refuse to accept responsibility for the sins of Mr. Hussein, the Baath party or today’s extremists.
And the list goes on. Sunnis have walked away from the Maliki Government. What passes for a government has been on vacation for a month and no significant agreements regarding the equitable allocation of oil resources or the rights of former Baath party members have been achieved.
As I warned in a blog more than a month ago, the Bush Administration and hacks like O’Hanlon are insisting things are better in Iraq. But, fewer deaths in certain neighborhoods has an alternative and darker explanation. Violence is down because there are fewer people. The absence of respiration is not a sign of life.
Oh, and did I mention the problem of corruption? A congressionally appointed panel headed by the highly respected Marine General, James Jones, reports that:
the rampant sectarianism that has existed since the formation of the police force requires that its current units “be scrapped” and reshaped into a smaller, more elite organization, according to one senior official familiar with the findings. The recommendation is that “we should start over,” the official said.
David Corn has another piece of the corruption puzzle:
according to the working draft of a secret document prepared by the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the Maliki government has failed in one significant area: corruption. Maliki’s government is “not capable of even rudimentary enforcement of anticorruption laws,” the report says, and, perhaps worse, the report notes that Maliki’s office has impeded investigations of fraud and crime within the government.
With British forces vacating southern Iraq, the United States must either further divide and weaken its over strapped units and send them to Basra or cede the territory to the Shia militias that are in defacto control.
How many American lives and how many billions of dollars must we expend in Iraq ostensibly to make America safe? We can not afford to be the sole peace keeper in the world. We should not be enabling the Iraqi army and police who continue to swear allegiance to sectarian leaders rather than embracing national interests. This is ultimately a problem the various Iraqi factions must sort out. US troops should not be in the middle of this dispute.
If US roads and bridges were in great shape. If American schools, particularly in inner cities, were the envy of the world. If every American had access to health care, then I could tolerate wasting $3 billion a week. But asking almost 3 Americans per day to die in Iraq? Not worth another drop of our blood.
Larry,
neither bush nor cheney care a hoot how many american military personnel they put through the iraqi meatgrinder, they take their marching orders from the israel power cartel and the oil industry magnates. israel doesn’t care how many americans die, just as long as their idf doesn’t have to. and the oil industry magnates regards the blood of american military personnel as a far cheaper commodity than their precious putrid crude oil.
With British forces vacating southern Iraq, …
I only heard a smidgen of the report on NPR (BBC?) in my daughter’s car on Wednesday, but it said that thieves and others were on site, waiting for the British troops’ departure so they could ransack what was left behind.
On reflection, I guess all that means is that the Iraqi people will have to sort things out, and will do so, one way or another. They can certainly do it better, eventually, than we ever can. God, I wish them the best. They’re living in hellish circumstances.
Larry’s right. We need to take care of our infrastructure, health care, schools, environment (!) and wildlife, trade imbalance, product and food safety, and create alternative energy. Boy, think of all the jobs we could create by focusing on infrastructure repair and alternative energy … those jobs earnings will help the economy enormously.
My daughter drives to/fro work on a viaduct that gets a rating of 9 out of 100. The Minnesota bridge that collapsed had a rating of 50. PBS Newshour did a big segment on that viaduct last week. (There’s local paralysis on what to do — among far-lefty extremists who want no viaduct or tunnel, the mayor who’s smitten with a hugely expensive tunnel, and the practical Democratic governor who wants a new viaduct built — but a strong president could have stepped in and issued an edict to build a new viaduct, and that’d be it.)
Then there’s New Orleans. Jonathan Alter said something interesting to Keith Olbermann the other night. For all his imperfections, John Kerry would have taken better care of New Orleans. He told Alter that, as president, he would have practically moved to New Orleans, overseeing its reconstruction. And, since Kerry is so well-informed on the environment, he would have focused on the rebuilding of the wetlands, the degradation of which caused the whole mess to begin with.
Eeek, your daughter commutes over a 9 out of 100 bridge? She should find another way across.
NYC’s famous Brooklyn Bridge has a rating of 48 or 49—it’s a 50% bridge. Meaning, you have a 50/50 chance of making it across without drowning in the East River.
Saw that report about Basra and the gangs eagerly awaiting UK withdrawal too. And also the report about what Kerry would’ve done in New Orleans if he were preznit. If only we hadn’t invaded Iraq, if only Kerry were president, if only!
“…— but a strong president could have stepped in and issued an edict to build a new viaduct, and that’d be it.)” Scratch a liberal find a yearning for dictatorship.
“…he would have focused on the rebuilding of the wetlands.” vs “…— among far-lefty extremists who want no viaduct or tunnel,” Once upon a time, cognitive dissonance was not so open.
That’s quippy, but my idea about an Solomon-esque edict is due to the protracted debate over what to do about the viaduct and the failure of the interested parties to compromise. (You’d have to live in Seattle or nearby to know just how protracted it’s become.) Something has to be done because of the danger of the existing structure. And the Democratic governor isn’t the only Democrat who’s decided a new viaduct is the best solution, and the most practical financially. It’s an essential corridor for so many businesses and workers. But there are some idealistic city council people want the land to become condominiums and parks, with nowhere for the traffic to go. Not everyone can ride a bike or afford a million-dollar condo.
““…he would have focused on the rebuilding of the wetlands.” vs “…— among far-lefty extremists who want no viaduct or tunnel,””…. While I’ll acknowledge the ascerbic sarcasm, it’s not a logical comparison.
“Two thousand will have made it to the country, we hope if not by the end of September, by the end of October, and a couple of thousand more in November,” she said.”
If the increase in the number of refugees remains constant, between the beginning of September and the end of October an additional 110-120,000 Iraqis will have become homeless, and the party responsible for the problem will accommodate - “they hope” - around 3% of those. Thanks for nothing, America!
“So by the end of the calendar year, there might be a possibility we will have moved the entire original 7,000 number that was talked about”
The official UN estimate of internally and externally displaced Iraqis was 4.2 million, and their numbers are increasing by an estimated 55-60,000 per month. The party responsible for this catastrophe is going to take in around one tenth of one per cent of them. Thanks for nothing, America!
Shirin, isn’t it close to if not the worst refugee crisis in the world?
And, since you follow this crisis closely, do you know if the U.S. is extending any real aid to Syria and Jordan to help them cope with the refugees?
Also: If/when the occupation is over, what would you want done for the Iraqis who’ve worked for the U.S. or contractors? Do they and their families need to be protected and moved out of Iraq?
Yes, Susan, it is by far the worst refugee crisis in the world, perhaps ever. Nir Rosen, an independent American journalist, recently spent some time looking at the refugee issue, and he estimates that the total number of displaced Iraqis is closer to 5-6 million, not the official U.N. count of 4.2.
It is also important to be aware of the Palestinian-Iraqi refugees, who are living in a terrible kind of limbo because no country will accept them.
Unless they are doing so very surreptitiously - hah! THAT would be the day! - the U.S. is not doing anything whatsoever to help Syria or Jordan to deal with the refugees. Syria has been very generous in accepting and accommodating Iraqi refugees, but their capacity is just about at its limit now. Jordan was not taking any more refugees the last I heard, and puts very serious restrictions on the ones who are there.
The U.S. certainly owes it to the Iraqis who worked in any capacity for the occupation to bring them to the USA, give them green cards, and make sure they and their families are able to live decent lives here. It is the least they can do. Unfortunately, although all of them can rightfully be seen as collaborators or worse, many of them took the jobs because it was their only means of supporting their families, just as is the case with so many who joined the “Iraqi security forces” - i.e. police or military. They did not want to be proxies for the occupying power, but with their businesses destroyed, and unemployment at 50-70%, those were practically the only jobs available.
As for the real quislings, opportunists, and collaborators, to hell with them. I don’t care what happens to them, but the U.S. really DOES owe them protection and a home for life in the USA.
As I am sure you know, those Viet Namese “boat people” about whom Bush waxed so eloquent a couple of weeks ago were those who had worked for the U.S., and who were largely abandoned to their fate. The U.S. has a nasty habit of using and abandoning people, as the Kurds know better than anyone else in Iraq.
Great response, Shirin. It sickens me. Charlie Rose did a great show about the crisis in March, and everything said on that show is still timely. The New Yorker’s George Packer was on because of his piece on the plight of the Iraqis who’ve worked for the Americans, contractors, etc., and how the Americans have screwed them over.
Packer said that no other story he’s ever done made him MORE ASHAMED to be an American.
P.S. Angelina Jolie was in Iraq very recently to highlight the plight of Iraqi refugees, and she went to the refugee camps. CNN did about 15 seconds on it. If only she’d taken Jennifer Anniston with her and had staged a big cat fight, then the story would have gotten more time (if not emphasis on the Iraqi refugees she is trying to help get the word out about).
Here is something on refugeesfrom the great British journalist (and I use that word in the TRUE sense), Robert Fisk, one of the few western journalists in the Middle East who lives there, speaks, reads, and writes Arabic, and actually gives a damn about the people and places he writes about.
“For their care [of Iraqi refugees], of course, the Syrians have received not a scintilla of gratitude from the Americans who were responsible for creating the hell-disaster of Iraq in the first place. It’s worth comparing the vital statistics (though not on CNN or Fox News): Syria has accepted almost one and a half million Iraqi refugees – caring for them, providing them with welfare and free hospital services – while Washington, when it isn’t cursing Iraq’s prime minister, has accepted a measly 800 Iraqis.
“And Lebanon? No one realises that this tiny Arab country has accepted 50,000 Iraqis since the great refugee exodus began.”
http://news.independent.co.uk/fisk/article2917317.ece
Larry, i haven’t read it all, but think there’s a minor typo in third to last paragraph.
think you want “defacto.”
Thanks man. Got it.
lj
Larry, still haven’t read it all, but i agree w your conclusions. america has a simple choice: we can piss our national treasure away in the mess in mess o’potomia, or, we can take care of americans here at home. a republic or an empire.
other item: the wordsmith is me loves your sick/sycophant & abscence of respiration not a sign of life lines.
Further thoughts on the refugee situation vis a vis the U.S.:
If the U.S. provided aid to the countries that are taking in the refugees - mainly Jordan and Syria - they would not only be tacitly acknowledging that there IS a refugee problem, more importantly they would be tacitly admitting at least some responsibility for it. I don’t think they want to do either.
A number of people have suggested similar reasons for the nearly total lack of interest in providing a place in the U.S. for refugees.
It is also important to be aware that a significant percentage of the refugees are homeless because the U.S. military has destroyed or rendered uninhabitable their homes, neighborhoods, villages, towns or cities.
I have just seen an announcement that the government of Sudan has said it will accept the Palestinian Iraqi refugees. This is extremely good news for people who have been living for several years in limbo on the borders of Jordan and Syria as a result of Bush’s aggression against Iraq. I hope this really happens for them.
I read that the US won’t accept Iraqi refugees unless they’re coming from Syria or Jordan, both of which are probably unable to accept any more refugees. It’s a typical Bushie ploy: say you’re doing something while simultaneously preventing it.
At least the Palestinian Iraqis will be able to leave their tattered tents out in the deserts of Jordan…but doubt they had troubled Sudan in mind.
Jordan was never really happy about taking refugees, and did not welcome them, except for the more affluent ones. That country also has very little capacity for dealing with desperate, impoverished Iraqis. Syria is also a more friendly place than Jordan for a wider variety of Iraqis, especially different flavours of Christians, Shi`as, Sabaeans, etc. A LOT of Iraqi Christians have gone to Syria. Syria has, as I said, been quite generous until now, and provided a lot of services for Iraqi refugees that are available to Syrian citizens, but they are not a rich country and can only do so much for so many.
Yes, I doubt the Palestinian Iraqis would have Sudan as their first choice, but really the trouble there is not everywhere in the country, but only in one area. I have never been there, but based on knowing several Sudanis, I think the life is OK, and can be very pleasant in major cities like Khartoum. The Sudanis I have known - mostly women - were highly educated, very cultured and quite sophisticated professional people.
In any case, almost anywhere would be an improvement over the conditions they have been forced to live in the refugee camps. They had quite a privileged existence in Saddam’s time - it was part of his self-aggrandizement in which he used Palestinians quite shamelessly. Of course, despite Iraqis’ naturally very strong general sympathy and support for the Palestinians, and for their struggle, it caused a lot of resentment, especially during the years of the sanctions, to see those non-Iraqis being provided better and easier lives by the Iraqi government than most Iraqis had. There were also stories - maybe true, maybe not - that some of the Palestinians were earning their keep by acting as spies for the regime. That, of course, added fuel to the fire after the regime ended.
Shirin, I believe you are right when you say that bushco and all don’t want to admit that there is a refugee crisis to save face. It is far worse than any of us could ever know. I think it is somewhat the same with the Katrina debacle that is a National Shame as well.
So many people displaced and in danger. I read that there is now an outbreak of cholera, as a result of lack of clean drinking water. I also read that it is estimated that up to 55,000 people a day are fleeing Iraq, and adding to the already 4.5 to 6 million people who have already left. The time has come for Congress to tell this cabal to bring home our troops, and stop this madness and insanity that seems to have no end…
Lies, lies, lies… that is all that we have heard from our king… and he wants to have us swallow the same lies once again, different country. can a people be this stupid to believe him and his minions once again??? So much good has come from this republic. I will be sorry to see its flames of hope for so many in the past, be extinguished by this menance to society. The International Red Cross has compiled a list of 13 war crimes Bush is guilty of, just in case he is tried in a Nuremberg trial. Soon, I pray.
Preacherlady:
So many people displaced and in danger. I read that there is now an outbreak of cholera, as a result of lack of clean drinking water. I also read that it is estimated that up to 55,000 people a day are fleeing Iraq,
My son tells us that the most important thing they can do is deliver bottled water to the Iraq people..esp.when he was in Haditha. (I think that is the spelling)
He is near…and i think this is proper logistics for our troops..near..the green zone.
We are not sure.. Leslie said you had 3 boys that went to Iraq. Our Communications are limited..Marineparents.com has been somewhat helpful.
Do you have any advice or websites that would be helpful?
Hi Hoosierhoops,
No, you misunderstood. I said PrchrLady has three sons who have gone to Iraq. Not sure how many are back now or if any will return?
I’m only acquainted with people who’ve gone there, and I’ve lost touch with them. One man was in his late fifties, and he was called back into active service early in the war, working with intelligence. Another man was an officer, in charge of others, and very worried about his men. He was a single father, and he kept returning to Iraq again and again.
The only websites I know about offhand that offer support are: Veterans Against the War
Military Families Speak Out
Vote Vets, Jon Soltz’s group
All these groups have links to other groups. I’m very resourceful at finding information, it’s something I do for a living…so let me know if you need more help?
“can a people be this stupid to believe him and his minions once again???”
It appears that they can.
Another big problem for potential Iraqi refugees to the US is the insane anti-Muslim hysteria that the rightwing is stirring up. It’s the only way they can possibly keep their justification for this unholy war going or try to build a case for what they want to do in the rest of the region. The refugees all look like terrorists to them. It also helps the administration build up their case for the war they want with Iran.
Yes, it’s insane. Yes, it’s immoral. Yes, it’s going to wreck this country as surely as it wrecks the Middle East. But when have they ever cared about anything except their own wealth and comfort?
Dear Winning Side,
I suppose this will shock you, frankly it shocks me, but I’m no longer rooting for “our side”. I really can’t believe that I can even admit it, it’s such a foreign notion to me, but it’s the honest truth.
I hope you will stay with me long enough to understand how I could possibly feel this way. When I was a girl my father was part of the air-lift operation in Germany and we were assigned there for about 12-14 months. It wasn’t very long after the war and much of the country was still in ruins. It never occured to me at the time, I was only 11 or so, but recently I wonder about the docility of the German population. Many of the depravations brought about by the war were still with them, we lived like kings compared to them, yet they showed no recentment, there were no incidents between occupiers and the occupied, no insurgency, no fleeing of the country to escape their fate. And it came to me that it was because they had been completely beaten and humiliated and not only accepted their fate but accepted that they were responsible in great part for that fate. Consequently, they were no longer a force to be reckoned with, nor have they been since. So, please bear with me a little longer, I have decided that the worst thing that could happen to America would be “winning” this war. No country on earth would ever be able to feel free of fear of invasion. Can you even imagine the unspeakable strutting and posturing of this president, if he were to be able to claim a victory? The unspeakable acts he would feel free to commit? This is our deserved momment of humiliation, we have earned it, we must accept it or learn to live with even more dispicable burdens on our already overburdened collective consciousness.
This is not to say that I don’t “support the troops” because I do, I support bringing them home alive. And leaving as many breathing Iraqis behind as possible, but no more fantasy tales of “victory” in Iraq. The only way we can “win in Iraq” is to accept that we have done a terrible thing to that country, to then get the hell out, and bring as many as want to come with us, and accept that we will spend the next 20 year paying reparations to rebuild Iraqs infrastructure. My greatgrandchildren will be paying for this obscenity.
“the worst thing that could happen to America would be “winning” this war.”
I would - in fact, have from the beginning - gone a step farther than this and say it would be the worst thing that could happen to the world, and to humankind.
“My greatgrandchildren will be paying for this obscenity.”
Yes, they will, but I am quite sure they will not be paying reparations to the victims of the crime. The Iraqis will never see a cent of reparation money. Your great grandchildren will be paying for the bombs, and other instruments of death and destruction that were purchased on borrowed money.
“….asking almost 3 Americans per day to die in Iraq? Not worth another drop of our blood….”
Thanks for the great analysis. I totally agree with the concluding, last paragraph of your piece (as with the rest of the piece). However, our soldiers are going there voluntarily, and fully knowing that this is an illegal war of occupation. They are making this continued disaster, including wasting $3 billion a week, possible. As such I can no longer support the troops.
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