By Larry Johnson
closeAuthor: Larry Johnson
Name: Larry Johnson
Email: larry_johnson@earthlink.net
Site: http://NoQuarterUSA.net
About: Larry C. Johnson is CEO and co-founder of BERG Associates, LLC, an international business-consulting firm with expertise combating terrorism and investigating money laundering. Mr. Johnson works with US military commands in scripting terrorism exercises, briefs on terrorist trends, and conducts undercover investigations on counterfeiting, smuggling and money laundering.
Mr. Johnson, who worked previously with the Central Intelligence Agency and U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism, is a recognized expert in the fields of terrorism, aviation security, crisis and risk management.
Mr. Johnson has analyzed terrorist incidents for a variety of media including the Jim Lehrer News Hour, National Public Radio, ABC's Nightline, NBC's Today Show, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, and the BBC. Mr. Johnson has authored several articles for publications, including Security Management Magazine, the New York Times, and The Los Angeles Times. He has lectured on terrorism and aviation security around the world, including the Center for Research and Strategic Studies at the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, France. He represented the U.S. Government at the July 1996 OSCE Terrorism Conference in Vienna, Austria.
From 1989 until October 1993, Larry Johnson served as a Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. He managed crisis response operations for terrorist incidents throughout the world and he helped organize and direct the US Government’s debriefing of US citizens held in Kuwait and Iraq, which provided vital intelligence on Iraqi operations following the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Mr. Johnson also participated in the investigation of the terrorist bombing of Pan Am 103. Under Mr. Johnson’s leadership the U.S. airlines and pilots agreed to match the US Government’s two million-dollar reward.
From 1985 through September 1989 Mr. Johnson worked for the Central Intelligence Agency. During his distinguished career, he received training in paramilitary operations, worked in the Directorate of Operations, served in the CIA’s Operation’s Center, and established himself as a prolific analyst in the Directorate of Intelligence. In his final year with the CIA he received two Exceptional Performance Awards.
Mr. Johnson is a member of the American Society for Industrial Security. He taught at The American University’s School of International Service (1979-1983) while working on a Ph.D. in political science. He has a M.S. degree in Community Development from the University of Missouri (1978), where he also received his B.S. degree in Sociology, graduating Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa in 1976.See Authors Posts (889) on January 8, 2008 at 9:42 PM in Current Affairs
Damn. The media favored story line just blew up. The Obama romp over Hillary was wrong. It’s still early and Obama may eke out a statistical win but he lost. Why? Because the media made the story all about his commanding double-digit lead. Senator Clinton’s staff can make the valid claim that they “came back”. Media loves the underdog story, normally.I don’t know about you, but I am thoroughly pissed off at the lame, unprofessional conduct of the various networks–MSNBC in particular. They knew that the polls had at least 17% undecided. Rather than simply report that there were a significant number of undecided voters and any projections were not reliable, they danced around like crack addicts celebrating the demise of the Clintons. Hillary is too wimpy. Hillary is too stern. Hillary is too manipulative. Hillary is not manipulative enough.
Special offenders include Chris Matthews, Andrea Mitchell, and Howard Fineman. They were so busy dancing on the Clinton grave that they did not have the decency to do some objective analysis. Hell, they tried to deceive the American people. So much for the death of Hillary’s campaign.
For the sake of our democracy, can someone smack the crap out of the media? Jesus! (take that as a prayer and/or a curse). Oh yeah, MSNBC, fuck you too.
Preach it brother Johnson!
Amen and Hallelujiah!
Deacon Johnson,
I’m afraid that we are going to have to expel you from the Church of NBC if you are going to keep questioning our dogma. We believe in the Trinity of the Three O’s: Obama (Barry), Obama (Michelle) and Oprah. If you cannot support this faith, please go elsewhere. We are also very anti-Royalist (i.e., King Bill and his Evil Queen), like our Irish and American revolutionary ancestors.
You call our God an “empty suit.” Well, we would remind you that every suit is empty when it is getting dry cleaned. And every clock stops ticking when it’s getting cleaned, as well. The very essence of our faith is a burning hope for change, any change, and whether or not our Lord has ever delivered change (outside of buying coffee at Starbucks) is irrelevant to persons of our faith.
So get your act together and get with the faith, or you will not be flying in with our advance team to Tehran three days after His inauguration to prepare for our promised bilateral, no-conditions talks.
Funny as hell. I’m an unrepentant sinner.
Add tonight to the suppression of Edwards and you can see that nothing has changed. Remember how a few months ago there was talk about how the media realized that this stuff was important and there might very well be an end to the “Gore-ing” of candidates?
Fat chance.
What suppression? Lack of media coverage?
Can anyone tell me if this is from the Onion?
I got it via email yesterday
Monday, January 7, 2008 9:29 AM
Article Font Size
Hillary Clinton is having so much trouble drawing large crowds of New Hampshire voters to her rallies that she’s been busing in supporters from out of state.
That’s what NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell reported on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Monday.
Mitchell said she was surprised to find at a recent Hillary Clinton rally in New Hampshire many attendees who were from Long Island and Upstate New York.
NBC Washington bureau chief, Tim Russert, also appeared on the show and offered more confirming details.
Russert said he was attending a Clinton rally at Nashua High School this weekend and was tipped off by the school’s maintenance man to check out the license plates in the parking lot. Russert said he was stunned to find the school’s lot filled with cars bearing Massachusetts plates.
Word from New Hampshire is that Hillary is simply not drawing strong grass-roots supports and has to rely on union activists from outside New Hampshire to fill out the crowds at her events.
Following Obama’s win in the Iowa caucuses, he now holds a double-digit lead in several New Hampshire polls, and it’s becoming clear that Hillary can’t compete with Obama’s charismatic appeal when it comes to attracting crowds at campaign events.
Obasma actually did that in Iowa.
Classic deflection tactic, get word out your biggest opponent is doing what you do.
Not that I’m against busing in its classic political sense. Mitchell getting out a slander on Hillary re: busing is classic coded bigotry.
When will Mrs.Greenspan get the honor of Ron Paul duty, so he can harass her about Gold Standards and the Fed?
You know darn well that neither candidate bused in ineligible voters.
I thought to send it after Larry mentioned Andrea.
A storm woke me up so I’m listening to the pundits STILL tearing into Hillary.
She re-tooled her message.
She got the women sympathy vote.
She copied Obama ( I do agree with this)
Chris Matthews sitting with his arms folded tightly across his midsection. Heh.
Yeah, Cee, I noticed Chris Matthews sitting with his arm folded across his chest, too. What does that mean in “body language”? I’m not going to let any pro-Hillary talk into my personal space?
Andrea Mitchell is a conservative who is married to Alan Greenspan who we can thank for contributing to our current financial mess. Federal reserve chairman.
BTW the only bussing was done in Iowa by Obama who had them coming in from Schools from ages 17 to 25. Technically he could get away with it and he did.
There were absolutely no improprieties by anyone but the Media yesterday.
Blame the people who corrupted the process. The Media. Not the candidates who are all superior to anything this shameful GOP has visited on our house.
Andrea Mitchell is a rabid conservative who is married to uber conservative former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan who aided and abetted Bush in destroying our economy.
She’s a joke of a “journalist”, and lied,lied.lied.
Mr Murder,
thank you. what are we going to do about a run amok irresponsible media that is trying to derail our elections?
Andrea Mitchell was a disgrace. Matthews should be drummed off the networks. There should be a concerted effort to rid our Democratic process of those who try to destroy our airwaves in front of our eyes. Matthews is beyond contempt, and bears no resemblance to a newsperson or whatever this creature calls himself. The whole gang on CNBC [even Keith Olbermann who was meek] went riding into this orgy of excess and cruelty that was so biased the truth had totally disappeared.
The network’s licenses of our airwaves demand that they adhere to certain minimum standards of decency and fair reporting. Hmmm.
The media made up their minds in advance that Obama was on a landslide, and trolls like Zogby just kept adding the numbers. There is no excuse for this sort of inaccuracy, and I would not be surprised if Ad Agencies don’t shriek as their client’s money is spent based on Neilson ratings and other marketing data. All subject to question.
Remember Al Gore and Fox polling data in 2000?
If I worked for Gen Electric I’d flip out at the network heads who sell their time based on this kind of phonied up bullshit data.
This disgusting sexist media showed its true colors towards women. Innuendo whenever it could be worked in was used to the fullest extent.
Taking a genuinely sad moment from Hillary Clinton and inferring that she pulled fake tears. UGH!
And the dysfunctional and poisonous Maureen Dowd who lives by the vitriol she can exude had the nerve to call Hillary..Girfriend.. in her NY Times rant today. Despicable.
Dowd’s hatred for Clinton is so pathological and out of control that she is unreliable in all ways to report objectively, or opine with any sense of truth or reality.
Dowd joins Kristol, Matthews, Mitchell, et al in the cesspool of journalism we see in our MSM.
Pathetically they couldn’t even deliver high school level journalism that at might have been properly researched. We should band together and start a concerted internet movement
to put a halt to this dangerous abuse of our Freedom Of The Press.
Yesterday every news media could have been Murdoch’s Fox.
If there was any justice, Tim Russert would be off the air.
He has no busines running one of the shoddiest news groups ever seen on TV outside of Fox.
Too right Larry. I swing back and forth frequently about supporting Obama or Clinton, given the strengths and weaknesses of both. Maybe a lot of other Democrats do, too. The media bias (I think Mathews lost some gray matter during the drunk years.) is beyond reason.
Matthews has lost any sense of decency he may have had in his sober days. This loud,obnoxious,rude bellicose bully is not practicing journalism and should be drummed off the air. Actually I believe Matthews has lost it. Mitchell looked like a gloating witch on a bad hair day, and the entire pack were a disgrace.
Russet is running a media whorehouse.
the pollsters were on drugs!
Image says it all I think.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/81571751@N00/2104720508/
Matthews is an idiot and competes with O’Reilly to see who can be the biggest overbearing jerk. I wonder how many votes were swung to Hillary because of Matthews gleeful bashing of her.
According to Rachel Maddow quite a few. But if votes were going to go to a candidate that Matthews has bashed and undermined the most. I believe that would be Edwards
None of this guesswork game helps. People vote for many reasons if they are Indies, Dems,Repus.
There is no party loyalty, and Indies are known to be the most unreliable group of voters, many who don’t even show up. This time may be different, but we won’t know until it’s all over. Usually the younger voters don’t show, but this time may be different?
What’s important here is that we saw a democratic process of media coverage get totally trashed by a pack of vultures tearing their prey to shreds in an orgy of excess.
They serve no one and trash us all. News coverage is supposed to be objective and fair. Those are the rules, but the degredation of Fox’s poisons have seeped into the entire MSM.
It really is up to us to make an uproar at CNBC that the networks won’t forget.
If this is the influence that Matthews has had on women voters…then why would votes not go to Edwards?
Matthews has been nuts when it comes to Hillary but even more so when it comes to fair and balanced coverage of Edwards. I have had it with Matthews personal agenda. give us the facts Matthews the fucking facts.
when will we hear one mainstreamer or progressive media outlets challenge both Obama and Clinton on their stances on Iran? When
Obama has picked up Edwards no lobbyist theme (but Edwards is not taking Pac money) and Hillary is picking up Edwards personal stories theme.
Parrots
Kathleen,
I know you’re for Edwards, but your inability to see why Hillary won is a bit one sided.
You have absolutely no reliable data that Matthews provided votes to Hillary that might have gone to Edwards. This is as bad as what the Media did. Assume. Flawed behavior and flawed information, and corrupted data.
Edwards has not found the support he thought his 4 years in Iowa would bring. He’s staying in this, so we shall see what happens.
The best voting and voter analysis is done at the Annenberg Foundation, and Bill Moyers has them on so watch for his PBS show and you’ll get rational sophisticated polling analysis that makes what we hear yeserday sound like a pack of hyenas let loose.
What is inportant is that we watched our MSM disintegrate into a wild wolf pack. Ugly and dangerous to us all no matter who we’re voting for.
Edwards is on right now making the valid point that less than 1% of the voters have had a chance to offer their view who should be the next President.
I fear, however, that the reality of money will intrude and keep Edwards from staying in. Who benefits more if Edwards stays in? Hillary or Obama?
Obama
Everyone except the Republicans.
The US public gets a better discussion, and the Dems can provide greater protection to one another.
The Republican oppo researchers want a single candidate to lambast. Why make their lives easy?
This kind of guesswork hurts the entire elective process. We are looking at “fixed” polling data from the pollsters whose assumptions are often corrupt and/or inaccurate and who propel this junk numbers game to further their pockets.
The insane assumptions of “bumps”, and momentum all affect the psych of the voters, and the media feeds this guesswork and changes reality minute to minute.
In 2000, the Fox Network declared the election for Bush after all other networks called Gore the winner. Then the fun started in Florida and you see the results of the poll numbers guessing game. The fix was in.
Our media pundits are all out of control. Their disregard for the patient evaluation polling data requires was missing because of the short time lapse from Iowa, but also because the pollsters and media assumed [without any data] that Obama came in with a 35 lead from a “bounce”.
The entire system is corrupted when the media behaves like animals, and many pollsters [Zogby] are notoriously and often wrong. Polling is not an exact science, and certainly whatever credibility polling can have wasn’t seen in Iowa or New Hampshire.
God help us all.
I have been sickened by the anti-Hillary schadenfreude among many liberal bloggers, too (her reward for championing liberal values for 15 years). They’re all a bit deadpan tonight.
I am deadpan tonight. Very sad very discouraged that the two war with Iran candidates won.
I’m happy for you Larry.
Super Tuesday is sure going to be super. Just as it should.
Staged. Now I am convinced that the two last days “stunts” (the phony tears and the perfectly placed protestor) by Hillary were staged to draw the female vote which was stronger than in Iowa. Anyone who bought into that act by the iron lady is foolish.
One other issue that is troubling has nothing to do with Hillary. McCain drew more independents than Obama. So race may still be an issue in this country.
McCain drew more independents than Obama.
Independents are republicans and democrats that for the last 20 years have been driven to the center. Give them room to decompress and that is a force to be reckoned with.
NH Independents are the 44% of us, who do not want to be harrassed by the invading hordes, do not want the equivalent of 10-12 dead trees worth of campaign literature in our mail boxes, do not want 20-30 campign telephone calls each night, and do not want gaggles of stangers knocking at our door and trying in every which way for entry into our homes so they may “talk” with us, and then have to be almost literally thrown out.
It has absolutely NOTHING about how we vote, what we think, or how well informed we are. Truth is 99% of us make up our mind within a week or two of the primary - and then lie about it to pollsters so the out of staters are not camped on our door steps.
Is NH the only place left in the country where people value their privacy, and just want to live their lives as normally as possible during the Quadrennial invasion and occupation?
S, Markom,
I don’t agree with you regarding her tears.
I do agree with the rest.
Independents pulled McCain through before so I dismiss the issue of race.
Not according to Bill Schneider of CNN. He inferred this AM that one reason the polls were in stark contrast to the results was, as he put it, likely Obama voters said one thing and changed their minds when they went into the voting booth. And then said it might have had to do with race. NH may be very liberal but there are not many African Americans living there.
The tears and the protest were contrived and she should be applauded for it.
There are several ethniticities in NH. I will mention places where they have a very STRONG presence.
A black man, deceased in 2004, was the one who introduced Bill Cinton to NH. His 6 daughters, one of whom I am very good friends with, continues his work in the State Legislature and on Martin Luther King.
Lantinos and blacks are strong in the small city of Derry NH, and well as in the Central East side of Manchester.
Vietnamese, Cambodians and blacks are in Manchester, Nashua, and Salem NH.
Serbians in Manchester and Franklin NH.
Indonesians and blacks are strong in the Rochester NH area.
I am white and was for 4 years Recreation coordinator for the NAACP.
The NO-NOTHINGS in the media are called that by NH locals for good reason. If you want to know about our state ask US, the people who live here, not the idiots who show up only every 4 years.
The protesters were from a radio station doing some mindless stunt. Tearing up is what most human beings do at one time or another. Granted Hillary Haters try their best to pretend she is not a human being in spite of all evidence to the contrary. All those that are so worried about a moment when a tired and besieged woman teared up for a few seconds should go stand in the corner with lil Bill Kristol. Because you are delusional and insulting if you think that women are so stupid that they are that easily swayed. Evidently men are because so many of them are outraged either by the thought that she shed phony tears or that she is a weakling because she shed said phony tears. Either way, in their tiny little minds, she loses. Kinda irrational, don’t ya think?
Obviously her timley acts worked with you.
These inconsequential radio stunt men got a front rwo seat to Hillary’s town hall meeting. That is awfully thought to do and coincidental.
Frankly I have a very high regard for her political savvy and acting ability after what transpired two days ago. I did not find them to be dirty tricks, just brilliant political ploys to get teh votes she needed.
I find what her husband did in suing the race card (see Donna Brazile comments) deplorable.
Whether it was a genuine moment, or a brilliant political ploy, it seems to have worked. I am hearing her show of emotion is what decided many of the women who voted for her.
More examples of superficial, emotional, irrational decision-making on the part of voters. Unbelievable - well, not really. Sadly, very believable.
Actually, it appears that women voters in NH WERE that easily swayed. I understand that a lot of them decided to vote for her based on that tearful moment.
Frankly, though I have not watched or listened closely to that little scene, it looks genuine to me. And maybe it is the camera angle, but I have never seen her look as soft or as pretty as she did then. I know acting very well, and believe me it would be extremely difficult even for a very well trained and experienced actor to pull that off and make it look really genuine. I will watch it more carefully one of these days and see if I change my impression, but I doubt it. Something like that would never influence me to vote for someone, but it increases my respect for her as a human being.
I think that Hillary’s tears were completely authentic and due to exhaustion. I recognized the feeling from times when I have been there. The person who I believed was calculated in his tears was Romney but the misogenist in the media didn’t question his motivations at all, only Hillary’s
I don’t buy the theory that race was an issue. For God’s sake, Iowa is 95% WHITE! where Obama didn’t seem to have any trouble trouncing both Edwards and Clinton by 8% and 9%, respectively.
Dipsuting the NH results sounds like a whole lotta sour grapes to me.
it seems to me john may have to do some real soul searching within the next couple weeks … hey a clinton/edwards ticket doesnt sound bad to me …
i just love the defeaning silence from the obama camp tonight. double digit lead my ass LOL …
No way Clinton would take on Edwards. I believe General Wesley Clark has been in the line up for quite some time. I trust Clark more than Hillary on Middle east issues.
We have heard for years that if Hillary ever won … our Governor Strickland would be a contender for VP (was the congressman for the district I live in, worked my ass off for him, he is a straight shooter and voted against the Iraq war).
I think that any talk about who anyone might select as a running mate is premature. Let’s see what happens after feb. 5th. Could it be possible that we could go into the convention without a candidate with enough votes for the nomination? In either party? That could be interesting. I am reminded of the ancient Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times!
I predict Hillary’s VP choice will be Wes Clark. The Clintons both supported him during his presidential run, and now he’s returning the favor. Their ties go back a LONG way. If he’s chosen, with his excellent military background, he’ll give John McCain a run for his money.
Silver,
Maybe. Hmmm. a Rhodes scholar, who speaks several languages fluently, first in his class at West Point, masters in economics from Oxford, a decorated combat vet, has a street named after him in Kosovo and Alabama. And he beat Colin Powell in a friendly shooting match at the pistol range.
Oh yeah, Powell used a new Glock and Clark had the old Army issue 1911 Colt .45.
The 1911 and 1911A1 Colt: things over 80 you can trust!
Good one, Fred.
And who intentionally and openly bombed civilian targets in Serbia.
I would not trust any military man on Middle East issues, particularly one who directed bombing campaigns against civilian targets in Serbia (or anywhere else). He might be talking a good talk now, but who knows what he would actually do if he were in a position to do it?
Hey, bama_baron, you never did tell me what I have said here that was demeaning to women in general, or what I have said to women here that demeaned them as a woman.
shirin … as i said before you gave me this impression from your posts. ergo, review some of your postings … self reflection isnt a bad thing you know
No, bama_baron. It is not my responsibility to engage in “self reflection” over your “impression”. You made the allegation that I have demeaned women in general, and individual women here because they were women, and now it is your responsibility to back it up with something real.
In fact, maybe it is YOU who needs to engage in “self-reflection” about exactly where that “impression” of yours is REALLY coming from.
the idiot chris mathews at msnbc can’t get over the fact that hillary is the one to beat, but i think that all of the msn is afraid to speak ill of obama because they are afraid that they will be called a racist. did anyone see the racism in the tone of Donna Brazile on cnn, bitching about bill’s remarks. she is an idiot being so obvious playing the race card. obama has no qualifications to be prez, look at who he beat in his senate race, wasn’t it the continual candidate alan keynes?
I love it when the MSM believes it’s own bullshit and it bites them squarely on thier collective ass.
It is crazy to think these cave dwellers have not learned a dam thing. What a Orwelian mass delusion our 4th estate has become….
Larry, it is not worth getting your blood pressure up over some crackheads tripping over each other lookin for the last rock to smoke. They can suck all the butane they want.
Hillary has been pounded more than any other candidate without a doubt.
I am convinced more than ever before Matthews is a complete and utter ass. He kept pushing for Edwards to concede but did not say anything about Richardson or the Republican candidates that came in third on down.
What the fuck does Matthews have against Edwards? Christ I just wish the arrogant fuck would stop determining everything from his agenda. Give us the info, the facts without your arrogant and smug comments Matthews.
It just feels like the two war candidates won. I will be praying for the Iranian people tonight I do not trust Hillary of McCain on Iran
Matthews have against Edwards? He is not Irish.
Rumor has it Clark will get the VP nod.
I’d rather see him get NSA. It’s more crucial than Sec. of State for policy directives.
Though the man who helped command NATO and secure the Kosovo crisis could arguably lever the diplomatic tasks we need as Secretary of State to help with our growing demand for coalition building as we dilute the risk and share the success of future security items…
Edwards is an ideal VP pick because he would not hurt the Senate seat count on a ticket and that could be crucial in the coming votes.
Put Clark in any of these positions as far as I am concerned. Clark always seems so reasonable, knowledgeable not a warmonger. A military man not looking for a fight
Clark actually caught a bunch of Crap at the beginning of the invasion of Iraq when he was on CNN and constantly raising the FUBAR issue.
Save me !! I just heard a spinning Exorcist head compare a politician to a thoroughbred horse….
ahhhhhhhh!!!!! Santa Ana 5th race goes off at 50 to 1.
So Biden and Dodd have more important jobs than running for president? Looks like Obama and Clinton are in it for the long haul.
Whoever gets the nomination should consider lots of Democratic VP candidates. (I don’t want to think of a Clinton/McCain ticket.) Maybe an ideologue like Cheney. Hey - it’s worked for Bush!
Wonder what the odds are of both political conventions this year not having a clear winner going in?
I believe Senator Evan Bayh will get the nod for VP.
re: Edwards vote loss and third place finish there, Iowa was also more a Union state. Just about the differentiation(plus margin of error, give or take) trends against his total percentage.
John will trend well in Union states, and expectedly in the South.
As for the biggest foreign policy concern at this time, Dubya flew to Israel…
“First and last trip to Israel” the paper said.
I can see it now Omert asking….
“Mr Bush when are you gonna start bombing Iran? they might have, or could have, or thought about having Nookular weapons and we think the good old U S of A should start it’s 3rd war for no reason to protect us. After all, we are a heavily armed and subsidized Nuclear armed country . NATURALLY this makes us pretty helpless in the middle of all these damn ARABS. Oh did I say Arabs, i meant Persians. Like the cat. meow…
Zogby, the conflicted questioner who joined ranks with Nixonite Brian Lamb of Cspan, had Obama over 40%.
So much for his legitimacy.
I am reading and hearing a lot of complaints about Matthews. It’s about time. What a sexist pig! Tucker Carlson also. I could not believe that these guys had explicitly talked about Hillary as castrating, yet there was no discussion about it. Apparently a lot of us out here in flyover land noticed. Let’s hope this is a turning point. NBC should be ashamed.
Not only sexist but jingoist/racist/bigot. I won’t repeat my story about what he said on local radio regarding wounded and dead Afghans, but it was hideous and disgusting.
Fantastic article!!
Chris Mathews is a bloated, two-faced jerk whose time has come to RETIRE - already! I cannot believe how skewed this guy’s political punditry has become.
Perhaps now we can also dispel the idea that Obama is the new Moshiach. I cannot believe the polls could be so far off. Something is very fishy here. Is Rove anywhere in the vicinity?
The new Moshiach? Nah - he’s actually the twelfth Imam. You will see soon enough.
Of course, it’s not news by now, but MSNBC declared Clinton the winner. Looks like the margin will be three percent.
The short version of why this happened? It looks to me like folks who were going to vote for Richardson and Biden, or someone else who wasn’t the top three, voted mostly for Hillary. That’s not such an unreasonable thing - she’s closer to them politically than Edwards and more experienced than Obama. Anyway, I’m trying to gather the numbers together that will confirm or disprove my guess. Unfortunately, the official results won’t be posted until tomorrow.
Yep, that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.
Eight percent appears to have shifted from voting for someone not among the top three to voting for Hillary Clinton.
And the “independent” vote split?
That, I don’t know. Polls use various ways of determining who a “likely voter” is. I don’t know any of that. It seems to be something of a trade secret.
As your question implies, it’s also possible that there were just a lot of people there no one expected to vote Democratic. But since both Edwards’ and Obama’s share of the vote was pretty much as predicted, I’m guessing that it has more to do with change of heart by folks voting for candidates who don’t have a chance of winning, plus undecideds.
Of course, it’s possible that Edwards’ and Obama’s shares working out as predicted was just a coincidence in otherwise bad data.
Anyway, as I wrote in the article, it’s possible exit polls will tell a different tale.
Not that we have any reason to distrust those …
McCain might have siphoned some as well.
Is it just me or is The “high drama” on this site for Hillery is getting very odd? I have always liked Bill & Hillery and do believe that Bill will go down as the best president of my life time. And I do believe that the right wing have always hated them for making the GOP look as stupid and evil as they really are, but this is really getting strange.
It was already pretty strange by a couple of weeks ago, and it has only gotten stranger since. I sure hope the madness subsides soon.
I don’t really follow your concern about “the Drama” - seems like the usual political exchange with most having valid supportable points . . . it would be strange to NOT have drama . . . as for Clinton - you are right! The GOP has never recovered from being made TOPTAL asses by his term’s economic and political heights with RepubliCON assplugs controlling Congress compared to the economic, diplomatic and military disaster under EIGHT YEARS of RepubliCON control of EVERYTHING!!!
We all know America would have been better off if we had just boarded up the White House after Clinton left . . . not much to brag about since - wide stance, war profiteerin’, money grubbing, pork barrelin’, lobby puppet, Page pokin’ budget bustin’ bovin buggering bums . . . ‘course I could be wrong and Captian Bunny Pants could go to the Middle East settle it on one fell swoop, and bring everlastin’ world peace and nookie-clear disarament with health care for all . . . and passes it on to President Julie Annie . . .
Maybe the pollsters were smoking all that crack you and your scumbag CIA buddies brought in?
I am minded of the 2004 presidential polls which were quite out of line with the reported vote tallies. The exit polls even moreso than the prior day polls. Also reminded of how much closer many of the races in 2006 were than the polls had them on the day before the election. I am minded that the polls showed Fred Thompson at 2% in Iowa on the day before the election. I wonder if people are lying to the pollsters. Yesterday Obama was anywhere from 5 to 11% ahead, today he is 2% behind. That is one hell of an error around a mean of 30%.
3 down 48 to go ( DC has a primary )
Someone made the point that people in Iowa declared in public.
These folks could say what they wanted before they shut the curtain.
I don’t think there is much doubt that women got ticked off the past two days and made the difference.
The “Wilder/Bradley” effect at work? White folks will not actually vote for a black candidate as much as they say they will vote for a black candidate. That would translate into about 1 in every 7 dem and indy voters in NH being closet racists/generic liars given the disparity between the before polls and the actual vote count. Even if true, it does little to explain prior disparities between before polls and actual vote counts in the last presidential and in the 2006 congressionals. Turnout has been huge in both Iowa and NH. In both cases the turnout has been approx 2 or 3 to 1 in favour of the dems and overall about three times the prior presidential primary.
what they should say is “we don’t know.” “various possibilities are x, y, and z.”
i compare this election to a stress/ekg medical test. it is revealing some signs of disease.
the media does NOT exist for what we think it’s purpose is. they are whores for their corporate masters. once you realize that then the scales fall from your eyes.
larry, go into amazon and check out kristina b’s “into the buzzsaw.” don’t remember if robert parry is in there, but one of the best books on journalism out there. and what happens to journalists who commit journalism.
The U.S. MSM’s active - and still ongoing - participation in the Iraq deception should be enough to convince anyone of what American journalism really is.
Examples: Why are the likes of Dahr Jamail still, to this day, completely unheard of anywhere on the U.S. mainstream media? Why is Scott Ritter, who has been proven right on almost everything he has said, still virtually unheard of anywhere on the U.S. mainstream media? Why is Robert Fisk, one of the few western journalists who actually lives in the Arab world (for around twenty years now), “gets” the Arab world (though his recent stuff on Lebanon is quite horribly skewed by his personal affections), and speaks, reads, and writes Arabic ignored by the American mainstream media? I could go on, but, well, either you get the point, or you don’t want to get the point.