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What is Past is Prologue

John B. Judis, co-author with Ruy Teixeira of the superb The Emerging Democratic Majority, has a piece today in TNR on the damage Snob-gate has done to Obama. Judis is a respected observer of demographics and voting trends, and his words in this article are perhaps too cautious for his larger point. Superdelegates and Party bigwigs should be trembling at the potential disaster Obama poses:

Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama’s fundraising speech at a San Francisco fundraiser last week…

Judis disputes this claim. The cold, hard truth of the numbers are not kind to Obama:

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can’t carry Florida–and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

Judis has carefully taken Florida off the table for Obama, largely because of McCain’s appeal to Hispanics and the fact that many Jewish voters distrust Obama, but also because Snob-gate has already made Obama radioactive to many blue-collar whites. There’s also the selective disenfranchisement of Florida. Judis doesn’t speak to this issue directly, but as SusanUnPc wrote yesterday: by playing games with Florida, Obama is:

infuriating Floridians. Does he really think that — if he’s the general election nominee — that the Floridians will forget all about THE SNOB’S SNUB, and rally to him come November? Especially with a candidate like McCain who appeals to centrists and independents?

Furthermore, Judis doesn’t expressly say it but Obama’s inability to win 45-48 percent of white working class voters in heartland states makes him non-competitive in those places. This includes many must-win states. John Kerry won Pennsylvania by a mere 2 points in 2004. As recent polls suggest, big states like Pennsylvania may already be shutting their doors on Obama. But it gets worse:

Some Democrats insist that Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado.

Again, McCain’s ability to attract Hispanics and independents makes Colorado almost impossible for Obama, and the military/veteran presence makes Virginia even more formidable.

If you look at the upcoming presidential election in this light, the Democratic prospects do not appear to be good. McCain is an acceptable Republican–a war hero and a reputed moderate. (His greatest inherent liability, which could make him unacceptable regardless of his ideas or background, is his age.) Both Democratic candidates, whatever their protestations, are seen as coming out of the party’s liberal wing on guns and abortion.

In retrospect, Dean’s 50 state strategy comes across as wishful thinking if not outright malpractice. Instead of building on the states Kerry won in 2004, the Party chose to selectively disenfranchise Florida and Michigan and pushed an un-vetted candidate on a Party who still relies heavily on “bitter” blue-collar whites. Even though his point is clear, Judis won’t say what is obvious: an Obama candidacy would be almost certain defeat.

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Of note, you can buy his book and help support this site.

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Comment by simon, too | 2008-04-15 18:37:24

In retrospect, Dean’s 50 state strategy comes across as wishful thinking if not outright malpractice

Agreed, and it could have been a very inculsive method if it had been executed without the political baggage, ala Obama, Dean and Pelosi.

Too bad, that group of San Francisco elitists fumbled the ball.

Who the hell is advising them?

Whoever he is, he’s a flaming MORON.

It’s my impression they’re ignoring the bad news, throwing themselves into a deeper spin, hoping they can pull this out, despite the overwhelming incompetence Obama’s amateur crew has so far exhibited.

They can’t, it’s over for Obama.

Elitist, what elitist problem?

Why would the majority of the country be offended by Wright, Obama’s connection to terrorists, Hamas, and this latest mouthful about guns, goobers and bibles?

Comment by Salo | 2008-04-15 18:40:40

50 state? 50 state who said anything about that? Nah he was refering to the rprimary battle where teh Dragon was to be salyed.

it had nuffink to do with McCain. Who is McCain btw? Some kind of Scottish racist who hates Barack?

 

Comment by llilytoo | 2008-04-16 11:34:40

It’s so plane OB cannot win in the fall,
that I have to think the DNC WANT MaCain
to win. A child can see OB will tank. I would say the idea the DNC want to lose was crazy but for FLA & MI mess of their making , plus it would just be more of what we have seen the DC Dems do for years….bow to the GOP

 
 

Comment by Salo | 2008-04-15 18:38:45

Kerry only won Penn by 2%?

That was a bit close for comfort.

Comment by Bud White | 2008-04-15 18:43:22

That’s right. I just put in the link. Scary, huh? Considering Obama just offended a great swath of voters in that state.

Comment by beebop | 2008-04-16 05:56:04

And what would the results have been without the Heinz connection? Pennsylvania don’t know nothing about BO.

 
 
 

Comment by Lucinda | 2008-04-15 18:46:48

The problem where I’m from is that 40 years ago, this was Democrat country all the way; then it started gradually leaning to the right. These are the kind of people that the Democratic Party wants to get back. It’s not going to happen with Obama making casting dispersions on small town folk to his rich friends. Despite what the Obama-loving news media would have you believe, things like that do stick and resonate with small town, middle America. Better get used to saying, “President McCain.”

Comment by Salo | 2008-04-15 19:57:32

aspersions.

Comment by Lucinda | 2008-04-16 10:11:40

Sorry! I mis-typed.

 
 
 

Comment by griff | 2008-04-15 18:49:22

April 15, 2008
OBAMA INCREASES HIS LEAD !
Gallup Daily: Obama 51%, Clinton 40%
Both Democratic candidates have 46% to 44% margins over McCainUSA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ — Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.

The current 11 percentage point lead is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin. The current Gallup Poll Daily tracking average is based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday — after the initial reports of Obama’s controversial remarks about “bitter” small-town residents began to be reported in the news media.

The two candidates will hold a nationally televised debate in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and it is possible that this confrontation — plus any delayed impact of Obama’s controversial remarks — may affect Democratic voters’ perceptions in the days to come. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

In general election trial heat match ups, both Democratic candidates now have identical, and slight, 46% to 44% margins over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain. — Frank Newport

Comment by simon, too | 2008-04-15 19:14:14

Polls have as much credibility as Chris Matthews.

Sad, isn’t it?

SUSA?

Is that the one that’s credible?

 

Comment by JoeySky | 2008-04-15 19:19:16

If we can believe the poll, Obama shouldn’t run back in DEC 07.

 

Comment by JoeySky | 2008-04-15 19:26:06

Pennsylvania: McCain 49, Obama 39
Florida: McCain 53, Obama 38
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 40
Michigan: McCain 43, Obama 42
Missouri: McCain 53, Obama 38
Tennessee: McCain 58, Obama 31

Comment by Salo | 2008-04-15 19:59:45

That’s a definite pattern for eventual defeat.

It should be reversed at this stage.

Generally, Dems lose ground as the calendar rolls toward November.

It’s hard to increase numbers as the campaign wears on.

 

Comment by lifelong dem leaving party | 2008-04-15 22:46:48

thank you! why do the obamaites keep throwing out national poll numbers? don’t they know that the electoral college determines the winner and national numbers are meaningless? (maybe they’re too young to remember gore/bush in 2000?). besides which, if april numbers meant anything, president kerry would be running for reelection this year.

anyway, the ohio, pennsylvania, florida numbers tell the story - a dem needs at least 2 of those 3 and obama won’t get any. of course, the obamaites think he’ll make it up in montana or something (yeah right!) - a remedial electoral math class might disabuse them of that idea.

 

Comment by Daryl | 2008-04-16 14:28:01

I don’t believe it’s that close in MI.

 
 

Comment by Mel | 2008-04-15 21:37:52

Here is a few facts left out, Gallup has a terrible record, but even that aside, this poll was based upon 1312 people contacted, and yet Gallup states their recording are of 1000 persons per day!

So the numbers do not add up, because even if it was 1000 they contacted per day that means possibly 1700 were republicans. so the flaw is basic for starters and second, who commissioned the poll is a critical requirement as to teh question asked and worded in leaning towards a particular candidate!

The only poll with any accuracy for Democrats this season has been the SurveyUSA poll that has been within its percentages in accuracy with the outcomes of already cast votes!

So stick to one that is accurate and not the ones that are off base continually!

Comment by beebop | 2008-04-16 05:58:46

Did they over sample the AA contingency again? That pattern of over compensating is not doing anyone any good except Republicans.

 
 

Comment by stodghie | 2008-04-16 10:05:23

i now look at polls and equate them with hardball and countdown. they are not credible anymore with some exceptions. these folks are being bought just like our so called media.

 
 

Comment by Ren Vs Stimpy | 2008-04-15 18:52:30

YOU MADE THIS UP!

Please cancel my subscription.

Sincerely not happy again.

M. Obama

 

Comment by scott | 2008-04-15 19:00:17

I just got an email from Dean today. The DNC has decided to go to a caucus only format for the rest of the contests.
Obamas person in one room and Clintons throngs outside.
That way they can stick to the script.

Comment by Northwest rain | 2008-04-15 21:13:35

I was wondering what the email was about. It arrived in my inbox devoid of content. I figured someone got Dean’s email with the words.

 
 

Comment by ebonyscrews | 2008-04-15 19:01:47

The problem with elites is…their elitism blinds them when they are exposed to the world for their stupidity and they have no clue. Right now, all they’re trying to do is rile up the paupers in their base supporting Obama to make noise. They’re also relying on the liberal elitist media to help them though this trying time via spin, but the ball’s been fumbled…Hillary’s got it and running to the opposite end zone.

Comment by lifelong dem leaving party | 2008-04-15 22:49:16

yes. and the giants taught us just this year that the allegedly invincible can indeed be defeated, even when they’re up late in the fourth quarter.

 

Comment by beebop | 2008-04-16 06:00:59

Projecting your own ignorance of people and their issues upon large groups and calling THEM stupid is not necessarily elitism. But it sure doesn’t win many elections.

 
 

Comment by JoeySky | 2008-04-15 19:17:29

Instead of the 50 states strategy, Dean should have overhaul the caucus system and come up with new Primary system that resemble the system used in the general election.

It’s pretty stupid to select the nominee using one standard to fight the final prize based on another standard. It’s like you select your players based on NBA MVP award to play in the Super Bowl. Pretty stupid don’t you think?

Comment by street_parade | 2008-04-15 20:13:11

Agree 100%. When this is over and HRC has triumphed, the first issue for the party is to get this nomination process under control.

First things first, abolish all caucuses.

Second, all primaries are closed, registered Dems only. I don’t want the opposition picking our candidate.

Third, NH and IA have too much power - I don’t care about historical precedent — it is ridiculous to have most of the field gone after two small states have their say. The election season needs to start on Super Tuesday, NO one out of the gate early.

Comment by Terry | 2008-04-15 21:53:55

AMEN TO ALL 3 POINTS! This system produces unelectable nominees for the GE time and time again. It is insane.

 

Comment by Terry | 2008-04-15 21:55:57

You are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT as to all 3 points! The Democratic nomination process produces nominees who can’t win in the GE time and time again. It is insane.

 

Comment by lifelong dem leaving party | 2008-04-15 22:50:44

yes, yes, yes!!!

please submit your suggestions to the dnc.

and since they’re too stupid to get it, maybe a few intelligent politicians.

 

Comment by Fredster | 2008-04-16 02:28:50

Fourth: Get Donna Brazile the hell out of the DNC.

Comment by lifelong dem leaving party | 2008-04-16 02:33:21

hooray to that.

 

Comment by stodghie | 2008-04-16 10:08:31

bring your boxing gloves and a big moving fan also.

 
 
 
 

Comment by simon, too | 2008-04-15 19:24:31

Being on the outside, posting here as opposed to the bought and paid for Obama blogs, it’s fascinating to see how elections are manipulated by those with money, everything from the polls, to the TV coverage, to the super delegates.

It’s like having a seat in Dick Morris’s, or Karl Rove’s head.

(Can you imagine the stench? P.U.)

I guess once you get a hold of the “election fixers” the public can break them down, making taking control away from them.

Maybe we can get fair, and real, elections.

Fascinating.

Someone must like NQ, up there…

(beside all of us…)

 

Comment by griff | 2008-04-15 19:30:56

Clinton losing traction over Obama in Pennsylvania, Indiana

Her formerly double-digit lead is now just a five-point margin in Pennsylvania, survey finds. The reduced margin makes a win for her there less significant. She trails Obama among Hoosiers./strong>
By Janet Hook, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
2:00 PM PDT, April 15, 2008
WASHINGTON — With three crucial Democratic primaries looming, Hillary Rodham Clinton may not be headed toward the blockbuster victories she needs to jump-start her presidential bid —
even in Pennsylvania, the state that was supposed to be her ace in the hole, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.
The survey found the New York senator leading Barack Obama by just 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which votes next Tuesday. Such a margin would not give her much of a boost in the battle for the party’s nomination.

What is more, the poll found Clinton trails Obama by 5 points in Indiana, another Rust Belt state that should play to her strengths among blue-collar voters.
In North Carolina, an Obama stronghold, he is running 13 points ahead.

Comment by scott | 2008-04-15 19:45:54

Look at the source.

 

Comment by John Smart | 2008-04-15 19:50:16

THe LATIMES is shamelessly pro obama. This story cannot be trusted.

Comment by lifelong dem leaving party | 2008-04-15 22:52:27

aren’t they owned by the chicago times? or the same company that owns the chicago times? explains a lot.

 

Comment by Fred C. Dobbs | 2008-04-16 08:09:46

Do ya THINK?

 
 

Comment by ressenbed` | 2008-04-15 19:52:31

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/ Why don’t you check all the polls not just the “Gallop” which the Pro Obama press chooses. She’s going to win PA and IN - big. and that’s with Obama spending 3-4 times more than her and with the Press Loving Obama.

Comment by simon, too | 2008-04-15 20:12:49

So, if I”m a gabillionzaire, like Soros, say, and I decide in 2004 I want to run Obama, I can begin to plan, analogous to planning a war.

First thing I do is line up financing, and media.

So I get the money guys, and I meet with my friends from GE and Time Warner, and I say, hey, can you give my candidate favorable coverage, and in return I can guarantee your FCC license will be upheld, and your military units will get all the contracts for new tank engines. I want you to slam Clinton, no matter what, and paint my candidate as a working class hero. Send me three reporters, I’ll put them up in a nice hotel, drinks, dinner, and maybe a little extra…And about my candidate’s drug issue, well, here’s a little extra, hush hush..

Then I go to the guys who own the polling companies, and I say, look, come on board. And even though they won’t make things up, they will push poll, or skew until they find a number the fixer will like. I bet next week’s poll numbers a re already in the hat, for Obama. And they haven’t even taken a poll!

The I go after superdelegates, I meet with the Kerry’s and the Kennedy’s and the Mccaskill’s, and I say, I will donate 10,000 dollars to your campaign, and the use of my political consulting company, “Shitheads for Shakespeare” if you throw your support behind my candidate. And the delegate does, because they feel he has momentum, the press says so! the polls say so! the DNC says so! he has all that money! the fix is in!everybody says so! but the voters, who despise my candidate, but think, well, the press and the polls say he’s great, I dont want to be weird, I guess I’ll go along. (Or, despite the PR, my candidate is still a wash, per internals, and the party to wake up last, loses all…)

And then I hire a PR company, like Greenberg-Trauring, and tell them I want three hundred bodies on the net, spinning and planting information in favor of Obama, and against Clinton. I also go to guys like kos, and I say, hey, I ‘ve got something for you if you push my candidate, on the sly, making it seem like he’s the best choice, even though I’m paying you. And I do that with many prominent blogs, or as many as I can bribe.

For starters, right, and then I manipulate issues, plan when to release damaging info about my opponent, and put out fires as they arise.

It’s all about courting the elite in the media, and elsewhere, American Express your best friend.

For starters, right?

I just keep “seeing” this low level table at Vegas, people betting, people not as important as they think, though.

So, elections that decide the future of our country, the men who will run our wars, are nothing but a game of “craps” to a bunch of stupid, mediocre rich guys?

And then we wonder why we lose in the bigger picture?

Comment by MC | 2008-04-15 21:11:54

I hope you realize how absolute correct you are in what you posted. I have been “belaboring this point” for quite some time to little avail!

An author named Dana Dunnan, wrote a book in 2004 titled: “Burning at the Grassroots: Inside the Dean Machine”(2004): you can view it and explore chapter summaries, as well as a “sample” chapter on Kerry at burningatthegrassroots.com. Check it out. Dunnan apparently wrote it to prove how slick the Dean apparatus had been in 2004, until the scheme ran off the rails with the scream, and the loss in NH. However, they quickly tweaked it, determined to be even more ruthless, and not fail again.
Dunnan apparently is still a part of the “machine”. He started the book by talking about finding a “Lincoln”(apparently Dean), then later talks about Kerry being compared to Lincoln stature wise, and has since added a “footnote” saying they have finally found their “Lincoln”, and “this time it is not a tall white man”. He held a book tour/signing for Obama’s 2004 Senate campaign. Obama’s Us Senate race was never meant to make him “a sitting Senator”, as he has not been. The Senate was just a short pause in the quest “the machine” started mapping out for him in 2004. When Dean lost, the new search for their “Lincoln” began. They found him quickly, having “discovered” him at the convention.

Please ck the following links:

http://burningatthegrassroots.com/

This realitively short “sample chapter” on Kerry is for me an amazing image of what we are seeing today. They attacked Kerry with zeal. I believe if you read it, you will find it well worth the read, it is like “deja-vu all over again”. From the race baiting, elitist labeling, even to the mention of the fact that while racially baiting Kerry they wish they were in SC in front of a largely black crowd and cameras. The exactness of then and now, as you shall see, is far too great to even come close to coincidence.
http://burningatthegrassroots.com/kerry_chapter.doc

http://burningatthegrassroots.com/chaptersummaries.php

http://burningatthegrassroots.com/barack.php

 

Comment by workingclass artist | 2008-04-16 01:27:33

Simon….I salute you sir…interesting….Banjo up.

 
 
 

Comment by JoeySky | 2008-04-15 20:09:17

Is this a new kind of troll? Copy paste some article into the comment.
We have the “typical troll”, “concerned troll”, and now we have “mute troll”.

Comment by hillarysmygirl | 2008-04-15 20:20:29

LOL! It’s irritating, isn’t it? Is that all they have to do all day, the Obama trolls? It’d be funnier if it weren’t so sad.

 
 

Comment by MC | 2008-04-15 20:44:51

Each time I see polls showing how “poorly” HRC is doing, I immediately think NH. The pollsters were “mortified” and grasping for any angle as to how they could be so wrong. They blamed everything and everyone other than themselves. I believe personal wishes and animus toward HRC skewed their processes and their minds. However, they chose to introduce “racism” as the cause.

The first time I ever heard race mentioned in this primary was by MSNBC’s Chuck Todd who seemed reluctant to even talk the results at first, then stammered, stuttered, and squirmed before introducing “the Bradley effect” as the only possible explanation. Other pundits followed behind latching onto the same crutch. Thus race reared its ugly head, certain NH voters had to be lying racists who “deceived the pollsters.

The only thing I can offer regarding Gallup is that must interview the same people each day, just to see if anyone has changed their mind. Otherwise, with all the things going on each day, the dailys should “swing” one way or the other.

It is really hard to believe that nothing seems to affect the Gallup, yet survey usa noted a very large swing in Pa. re the bitter comment.

I have read articles from newspapers all over the country in the last few days saying the bitter comment, and even yesterday’s Rezko testimony was resonating. So, who is Gallup talking to?

Comment by Salo | 2008-04-15 20:46:29

Bitter New Hampshire racists.

 

Comment by zozosmom | 2008-04-16 06:19:49

Yeah, rememeber when O was supposed to win CA by 11 points?

Comment by Daryl | 2008-04-16 14:32:18

And Texas. And it was dead even in Ohio.

 
 
 

Comment by stodghie | 2008-04-16 10:09:17

hey griff, don’t double post. we can read. can you?

 
 

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-04-15 19:44:55

Takes no rocket science to deduct all of this.

I get that sinking feeling in my stomach every 4 years when Democrats put up a candidate like Obama. Why do they always seem to shoot themselves in the foot with a candidate that is like an alien from Mars dropped in Timbuktu?

Locally Dems can win with Mr. Mars, but not nationally where all districts in 50 states and possessions will have to vote. Young Dems have to realize what’s represented in their district does not apply across the board, the GE is more conservative in the vote, hands down.

Dems lost my state of GA, not because there’s not enough Dem votes in this state, but because the national candidates don’t reflect the Southern values vote. Yes, the God, Guns and Apple Pie (patriotism) vote, that represents a large swath of the USA vote from GA to the midwest. Concentrating on urban votes has repeatily cost the Dems the presidency, as urbanites aren’t enough as half the country.

No more Harvard and Yale types for at least 20 years, let alone San Francisco, for the lack of a better term, “Moonies”. This country needs a Dem that comes from the very background that Joe Sixpack can relate, too. The elitism is killing the Dem’s chances of electing a president, for 50 years. Even JFK almost lost the election, and if it wasn’t for that family trying to be a dynasty itself, he would’ve been forgotten like President Garfield.

Biggest liability is pumping a no name in the belief that his so-called “clean record” would make it easier for him to win. The problem is, Obama doesn’t relate to anyone but that top 10% of the country — the very traditionally undemocratic demographic.

Man, if the Dems could get Sam Nunn to run (with the missing credentials that both Obama and Hillary doesn’t have), they’ll clean the country cold. But I’m not holding my breath, because these Far-Left types that killed Carter’s Administration will attack him, too.

It’s no wonder why folks switched to the GOP, the Dems kill their own best bets. Every time when they face an arch-conservative they match it with an arch-liberal, and the result is the nation votes for the arch-conservative. Carter and Bill Clinton got elected as they were SOUTHERN, and NOT Far-Left!

Definition of insanity is keep repeating the same situation over and over and expecting a different result. Change this nominating of the the most firebrand liberals from the most elite colleges, or keep defining political insanity!

UGH!!

Comment by Salo | 2008-04-15 20:05:37

We had a Public university candidate with a BSc in textile technology and a JD.

A machinist who then went into law.

A man of his hands and brain.

He showed he could pull the trigger by supporting a war, but also showed contrition for making a mistake.

He ran a faultless campaign as Kerry’s running mate–never once embarrassing his boss.

YET the aristocrats in the press and the party shit on him like the peasant he was.

Karma will be a bitch in November.

Comment by Ga6thDem | 2008-04-15 21:00:18

I’d certainly feel a lot better if at this point we were left with Hillary or Edwards. Even if Edwards was in Obama’s place and I was a Hillary supporter I wouldn’t down about our chances in Nov. I would feel that either could win. Right now we’ve got the least electable candidate leading. Ugh, what a mess we’ve made. There should be a total change in guard in Nov. Pelosi should go. Dean should go. Brazile should go. Clean house. Heck, put Edwards as head of the DNC. I’m sure he wouldn’t be any worse than Dean and would have more sense when it came to picking candidates to run.

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-04-15 21:17:53

Heck, put Edwards as head of the DNC.

Can’t be any worse than it is now.

The Democrat party has to get back to it’s roots (and I don’t mean ‘net roots), as those roots are a lot larger than that 10% elite. Poorer, but they have the votes in spades (money won’t mean a hill of beans if a candidate can’t even get into the White House).

A little protectionism to put the house in order and stop the bleed of middle class jobs; some social progress (but none of this pushing gay marriage stuff that will alienate half the country — and you don’t even have to be a Christian to dislike that push); revamping trade school — the very jobs that can’t be exported, but in high demand as the country becomes more urbanized. It’s those little but important things that will bring the Democrat party back to where it began — when Andrew Jackson became president (and upset those old Federalists to no end!).

Comment by jangles | 2008-04-15 22:24:17

As an educator, I have been encouraged by Hillary’s position on developing Green Collar jobs and building the educational infrastructure to support those jobs. This is a double winner—it opens new career pathways with real opportunities for the non-college student and it addresses our national and global imperatives concerning environmental health. The emphasis on universal health care is the other big shoe that has to fall in place and these young people who are not on college campuses are the ones with young families, no health care or minimal health care, big exposure to debt and impacted enormously by high energy costs.

 
 
 
 

Comment by Fred C. Dobbs | 2008-04-16 08:15:54

>>> Takes no rocket science to deduct all of this

The hard part is finding out which line on Schedule A it goes on.

 

Comment by stodghie | 2008-04-16 10:18:49

when the south left the democratic party it was in part due to johnson’s championing the civil rights act. well that legislation was needed. it had to be done. now many are allowing themselves to be intimidated by folks who won’t even be on the radar in a year.

i have read there will be riots in colorado if the precious doesn’t get the nomination. let me assure you that will do nothing but insure that a minority will not even be considered for a generation. maybe they started out thinking obama had potential, but where is the courage now. he is not electable despite the phony baloney numbers flying for so called polls. forget it, the race is over now in my mind. heck of job, party elders!

Comment by llilytoo | 2008-04-16 11:49:59

i have read there will be riots in colorado if the precious doesn’t get the nomination. let me assure you that will do nothing but insure that a minority will not even be considered for a generation

Frankly I think Obama is a GOP opertive and besides spliting the Dem party, suppresing actual AA office seekers is part of the plan.

Also the GOP will be sending folks to Denver , whoever gets nomination. Who can foget the angry Fla people who stopped the recount in 2000….but opps, turned out they were GOP opertives. Which the press knew but pretended otherwise

 

Comment by rwc | 2008-04-16 12:38:07

Given the way Obama can whip up his followers into a frenzy it wouldn’t be hard for him to have them riot on his behalf should he not get the nomination.

So the notion of a riot isn’t that far fetched.

Also IMO, the reason the party elders have shilled for Obama is fear of losing the AA vote. They know if 3-4% of them stay home they will go the way of the whigs.

Basically Obama is going to get the Democratic nomination not out of merit but from the threat of violence and extortion.

 
 

Comment by Daryl | 2008-04-16 14:34:25

Locally Dems can win with Mr. Mars, but not nationally where all districts in 50 states and possessions will have to vote.

I”m wondering if the first part is what dem leadership has in mind.

 
 

Comment by scott | 2008-04-15 19:48:29

So how is Dean going to make FL & MI not count in the GE?

Magic?

I’m bitter, against the DNC, I live in Florida.

Comment by jangles | 2008-04-15 22:29:43

There was a post yesterday about union workers from FL picketing DNC headquarters. Is there any more traffic on that? I have seen no confirmation or other notice of it on any msm, about which I am bitter but I am clinging to hope that they will change.

 
 

Comment by grlpatriot | 2008-04-15 20:01:55

Obama is taking page after page from the Elitists Guide to Losing a Presidential Election. The next thing we’ll see is Obama sporting a flag pin. Oh, wait, that just happened. I bet we see him holding a gun, or better yet, maybe he’ll go duck hunting with Cheney.

Comment by JoeySky | 2008-04-15 20:10:13

 

Comment by llilytoo | 2008-04-16 11:51:33

I’m waiting for him and Kerry to got wind surfing! LOL!

 
 

Comment by bmc | 2008-04-15 20:04:36

Donna Brazile, Al Gore’s 2000 campaign manager and an undeclared super delegate, is worried.

Obama’s Flaws Multiply

Barack Obama’s San Francisco-Democrat comment last week – about how alienated working-class voters “cling to guns or religion” – is already famous. But the fact that his aides tell reporters he is privately bewildered that anybody took offense is even more remarkable.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120821921853714665.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-04-15 20:37:33

From the WSJ article:

Speaking to small-town voters in Iowa last year, he asked, “Anybody gone into Whole Foods lately and see what they charge for arugula?”

AAAAAAAAGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

Anyone in Iowa know what argula is? Heck, I’ve been cooking since I’ve been 4 and haven’t heard of it!!

Searched…

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arugula

The guy doesn’t even eat like most Americans!!!!!!

Comment by Ga6thDem | 2008-04-15 21:03:42

I’m a gourmet cook and I don’t use arugula. It’s a salad green but I’m not sure exactly which one it is in the spring mix.

 

Comment by workingclass artist | 2008-04-16 01:32:55

If OBAMESSIAH were in Texas he would insist on Tofu and soy sour cream burritoes…..It’s a big state…..He’d go hungry as he is laughed out of the state…

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-04-16 10:29:24

Do you remember the TV clip of Obama serving hamburgers? Looks like the dude didn’t even know how to serve anything (if you had a waiter like that, you’d leave him a s-m-a-l-l tip). Probably because his wife even thinks that’s below her stature, as we all know that it’s “racist” to even think Black people can serve anyone anymore.

Barack needs a real job. Get him to work at McDonald’s like almost every poor and middle-class teenager did (or sadly adult now since the good paying factory jobs are gone. Yep, serving burgers with a smile, and learning the humility that job teaches.

Then, maybe just maybe, he can relate to real people, not Harvard fantasies of what poverty is.

Comment by workingclass artist | 2008-04-16 11:54:53

Agreed…..He has no clue..By the way, have you seen that at least around here lots of folks behind those counters aint no teenagers.

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-04-16 12:19:12

Agreed…..He has no clue..By the way, have you seen that at least around here lots of folks behind those counters aint no teenagers.

Too old to move; too many roots in town; and usually with families to feed.

Kids just pick up and leave, then come back when they’re in their midlife-crisis-nostalgia years, wondering why their hometown is either run down, or boarded up.

It’s those who stay for love (because it’s so easy to move for money), that make all those small towns across the country, America.

I keep thinking if I had a million dollars and could move anywhere, if I would. Despite I’d crave a dark-sky for star gazing, I’d miss home even more. The loblolly pines; fishing; the food (including the bream that was hooked; and the bushels of veggies from your own garden); the dialect; the sense of community.

Home is where the heart is.

I’d never feel at home in some big city, where folks are pushy; have no manners; concrete instead of trees; values is what Hollyweird depicts; and even having food nazis telling me what I can or can’t even eat (heck, maybe even tell me my garden is evil; fishing is a sin; and BBQs are a air quality threat)! :rolleyes:

 
 
 
 
 

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-04-15 22:56:04

It is not Obama’s flaws that are multiplying. It is the public’s awareness of them that is exploding out of control.

 

Comment by Daryl | 2008-04-16 14:40:21

Thanks for the link. Love this part:

While Republicans tend to nominate their best-known candidate from previous nomination battles (Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and now John McCain), Democrats often fall in love during a first date. They are then surprised when all the relatives don’t think he’s splendid.

 
 
 

Comment by Mary Jo Kopechne | 2008-04-15 20:44:26

SEE THIS from the AP

” The billionaire founder of Black Entertainment Television says Barack Obama would not be a leading presidential candidate if he were white and that the Illinois senator’s campaign has “a hair-trigger on anything racial.”

http://tinyurl.com/5a3rmt

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-04-15 22:57:44

That seems to sum it up fairly well.

 
 

Comment by Mary Jo Kopechne | 2008-04-15 20:53:00

And read this.
“Obama says Clinton criticism not racially motivated”

http://tinyurl.com/4vxf95

 

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-04-15 23:01:48

Here is something that I still don’t understand - how does Obama expect to win withmany of the Democratic voters not voting for him? He and his supporters have gone to a great deal of effort thumbing their noses (to put it nicely) at pretty much everybody who is not an Obama supporter. Can he still think that they will all vote for him after that?

Comment by beebop | 2008-04-16 06:08:30

They believe you will knuckle under or vote against your best interests in the fall. You aren’t much different in their opinion than the bitter folk in Pennsylvania if you vote for anyone other than him.

I don’t think that they get a grip on November. Right now it’s all about beating that white Clinton girl.

Simple as that.

Comment by zozosmom | 2008-04-16 06:24:10

Yes, they think all they need are a few good commercials and we will give in to the “false consciousness” Obama is hawking.

 
 
 

Comment by ca moderate | 2008-04-16 00:35:23

My attitude about Obama, if he wins, is that I get two votes - one that the dnc will be counting on (-1) and my actual vote for McCain (-2). The longer this thing goes on the more people I hear saying that they are voting for McCain over Obama. If I were Howard Dean, I would step down now to avoid the destruction that will come in November if Obama is forced down the majority of the dnc throats. This time it has been too toxic and we are not going to fall in line like lambs heading to the slaughter.

Comment by lifelong dem leaving party | 2008-04-16 01:38:46

completely agree. they think we’ll fall into line. they even say it. they’re wrong.

i’m in texas, usually red as can be. slight possibility hill