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When Hillary Speaks, We Listen

To: Interested Parties
From: The Clinton Campaign
Date: May 6, 2008
RE: Tie-Breaker

In April, Barack Obama called Indiana a ‘tie-breaker’ for the Democratic nominating process: “You know, Sen. Clinton is more favored in Pennsylvania and I’m right now a little more favored in North Carolina, so Indiana right now may end up being the tiebreaker. So we want to work very hard in Indiana.”

At the time, Senator Obama’s comments seemed to be part of an elaborate plan to lower expectations for the Indiana contest. After all, roughly 20% of Indiana Democratic primary voters have been exposed to Senator Obama for years because they live within the Chicago media market. He’s never lost a state that borders his home-state of Illinois.

The fact that Indiana was an open primary – Republicans and independents can vote in the Democratic contest – also augured well for Senator Obama. He has regularly argued that he should be nominated because he “appeal[s] to Republicans and Independents in a way that none of the other nominees can.”

Throw in the fact that Senator Obama outspent the Clinton campaign by a 2 to 1 margin on Indiana television and Indiana seems to be more of a lean-Obama state than a toss-up.
So Hillary’s victory in Indiana – fought out against the backdrop of an ailing economy – is all the more incredible. We started out behind in both the public and internal polls.

For example, our March 13 poll showed Hillary trailing by 8 points, while our latest poll gave Hillary a 5 point lead.

We saw Hillary Clinton’s margin flip from -19 points among men in Indiana back in March to +1 among men in our final poll. Among women, Hillary’s margin increased from +1 in March to +8 now.

Similarly, in mid-February, the Howey-Gauge poll had Barack Obama 15 points ahead of Hillary Clinton (Feb 16-17: Obama 40 / HRC 25). By April 23-24, Hillary had narrowed the gap to only 2 points in the same poll (Obama 47 / HRC 45). The late momentum was critical – according to the exit poll, Hillary won by 18 points among those who made their decision in the last three days.

Hillary won by appealing to voters in almost every key demographic group. According to the exit poll, Hillary won among men and among women, in northern, central and southern parts of the state, among those who earn more than $50,000 per year and those who earn less, union voters and non-union voters, suburban and rural voters, churchgoers, gun-owners, and those who have not graduated from college.

Hillary also won among those who say the economy is the most important issue, those who are affected by the recession, those who say health care is most important, electability and experience voters. Hillary also led Obama on commander-in-chief.

What drove Hillary’s strong support – especially among downscale voters, suburban and rural voters, churchgoers, gun-owners and those who are affected by the recession?

- Gas tax summer holiday – making oil companies pay the gas tax instead of American families through a tax on oil company windfall profits
- Tough stance on NAFTA and other trade issues
- The only candidate – Democrat or Republican – with a health care plan that covers every American
- Support for cutting middle-class taxes

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Comment by jwrjr | 2008-05-06 22:16:24

Of course Obama supporters are already calling for Clinton to drop out, even after she won Indiana. Disgusting.

Comment by workingclass artist | 2008-05-07 09:22:07

I though I might get my question lost…Larry….Do you think there is anything to a linkage btween OBAMAS CAMPAIGN and Chechen Terrorists ?
Your expertise would clear this up for me….What do you think ?…thanks…..

 
 

Comment by mr | 2008-05-06 22:17:01

hillary will be the nominee i feel it, that is not to say i dont get heartburn everytime there is a primry, but i feel in my heart tht she will be potus.

 

Comment by mr | 2008-05-06 22:17:28

hillary will be the nominee i feel it, that is not to say i dont get heartburn everytime there is a primary, but i feel in my heart tht she will be potus.

Comment by workingclass artist | 2008-05-06 22:29:57

WELL I’M IN FOR SEN. CLINTON ALL THE WAY TO DENVER….

Comment by SensibleWoman | 2008-05-06 22:36:57

So am I. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Let’s go!

 
 
 

Comment by No Blood for Hubris | 2008-05-06 22:17:59

Yes, they are.

Not to mention the rabid howls for blood of the media whore media.

It is dispiriting.

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:23:59

It should be predictable by now.

Who do you admire in that group, who would you emulate?

None of them.

So don’t sweat it.

 
 

Comment by politicsIsdirty | 2008-05-06 22:18:34

Can Sen Clinton run as Independent and still win. Anybody who has ideas out there?

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:27:23

I would look, and am going to look, at Obama’s run more in the light of a john anderson, or russ perot, a marginal campaign, with a homogeneous block of voters.

And I would also look at tensions within that group, as true believers do not tolerate dissent.

 
 

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-05-06 22:18:36

The last districts to report will be heavy Obama voting(Gary, etc.) and they may try and call one for him before this is done, I don’t see how they can swing the margin his way, but don’t count it out.

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:46:03

You know, as with the war, the analysis these people give has nothing to do with truth, or accuracy.

On Fox, the commentator said ” Obama will have the popular vote lead.” Because people voted for the best candidate, or because he cheated, and the results are questionable? Should we reinforce this meme, that his candidacy is as pristine as B Clinton’s was, or should we take a look at the truth behind the numbers?

BINGO!

Let’s believe the lies, or better yet, let’s troll Obama’s people to believe the lies, when his support is really very very soft.

Because ultimately this is about rooting out the corruption, and Obama is just one small part.

But if the news is so unthinking, how does this affect our real policy makers, when the analysts they listen to on TV are garbage?

Would you listen to this guy, and make a decision on the war, say?

And what happens when the guy advising the general listens to these tools, and reports back based on the impressions of some stupid Fox wannabe?

(OTOH, if you were to ops an enemy, I suppose it acts as the synovium. Wasn’t that the band Chris Squire was in before Yes? ).

Reminds me how the USSR lost in afghanistan, really sloppy thinking, really sloppy engineering.

 
 

Comment by Uppity | 2008-05-06 22:30:37

Something is VERY odd over in that county near Chicago that hasn’t posted a single vote. VERY odd. Not a peep out of them.

Comment by SensibleWoman | 2008-05-06 22:41:03

And Guam’s results come to mind as well.

 

Comment by bert | 2008-05-06 22:44:48

Do you remember 1959 JFK against Nixon? Chicago waited till last then too. Mayor Daley reportedly threw the election to Kennedy. They just waited to see how many votes were needed. And even though Gary is over the state line, it looks like the same thing might be going on. I wonder what Daley, Jr. promised them.

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:47:51

Yeah, and some say that’s how Obama won IL, this time around.

 

Comment by it'snotme | 2008-05-06 22:53:03

BINGO. I bet there was a deal made. This is why the talking heads refuse to call the election in Indiana. THEY KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON. They’re waiting for Daley to find some dead people to vote for Mr. Hope.

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 23:06:26

I don’t care about the deal, any deal, this is a way to discourage people, and make them feel helpless.

So old, you pick it up and it falls apart.

Did you know McArthur’s Dad served in the civil war, the American civil war?

So did this psyops method…

First words out of the PR guy on Fox: This offsets her PENN gains.

Says who, tool, you?

LOL.

What was Larry’s post on the Pentagon brass working the cable news rooms?

Maybe that should be seen in a larger context, right?

It IS a time of war, Bush said so…

LOL

 
 
 

Comment by Lou | 2008-05-06 22:48:56

Voter fraud in Gary? Same sheet different day.

50% of Hillary supporters claim to be voting McCain if Hillary is not the nominee. That’s todays exit poll.
Then remove Obamas Republican voters who will vote for McCain and I don’t see a Dem win if BhO is the nominee. I can’t vote for this crook. I can’t.

There is something inherently wrong with open primaries. Anyone can vote same day..

 

Comment by Judith | 2008-05-06 22:49:05

I was just changing channels in time to see Keith Olbermann say, with a smirk, that they had inside information that Obama has too many votes to count quickly in that northwest county of Indiana…Chuck said “Oh Lord” and laughed. Those people make me ill. I changed back of Fox. She gets more respect there than anywhere. Did Donna Brazile really say she would vote for McCain if Obama did not win? Did she say it on air tonight?

 
 

Comment by beachnan | 2008-05-06 22:32:05

I am calling the DNC again tomorrow, to let them know what I think of 1)Obama (will never vote for him), 2)Donna Brazille (I believe she said tonight that she would vote McCain, if Obama is not the nominee), and 3)If they do not count the votes for Florida and Michigan I will be leaving the party. The phone number is 1-877-366-7200. She hasn’t given up and we shouldn’t either. What NC shows, is that his popularity is not wide spread, and he has definitely alienated “typical white people”. The DNC has to realize that he can’t win the GE with the demographics he wins states with. What is our chance of winning NC in the GE. Zero. Really, everyone, keep your chin up. We have much to be proud of.

Comment by MessyMarcy | 2008-05-06 22:45:51

You’re right, and I don’t find the media dispiriting, but this whole cockamamie primary system gets me down. She wins and wins and wins in Democratic states; but he gets more delegates by bullying his way through the caucuses and bringing home the Dem for a day and AA votes in republican states and disenfranchising two large states we need in the GE. Then Dean and Brazile act like he is actually the choice of a majority of the party. That dispirits me. But not enough to give up.

We’ve got to get control of the party away from Howard Dean; if he and Brazile can’t be impartial during the nominating process, they should both resign and go work openly for Obama’s campaign, although that’s pretty much what they’re doing now.

 

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:50:09

What about the Rezko tidbits, also?

I expect a bumpy ride, too, but it’s part of a tired, old predictable script.

And if she does get the nom, this should enlighten us all as to how deal with the Republican “AA” set, come November.

 
 

Comment by politicsIsdirty | 2008-05-06 22:35:15

In NC the racist won again, supported by his fellow racist. 90% of blacks for Sen Obama?

If you don’t call that racial prejudice, then what?One thing this primary exposed is that while the white people has become tolerant, the blacks are the biggest racist.

Comment by Northwest rain | 2008-05-06 22:57:04

90% is certainly an indication of something — and something that isn’t healthy.

60% would be a landslide — but 90% represents racism — that is a hard cold fact. I watched the Black Panthers spread their hate in the S.F Bay area — their brand of hate has gone mainstream.

This is sort of like the 90% approval rating the Bush got post 9/11 — not healthy at all. And bush took advantage of the stupidity of the masses.

90% is a cult like, unquestioning mass hysteria.

Ironically these 90% are NOT voting in their best interest. Obama has no track record of doing anything FOR the AA community. Obama has taken from the AA/Black community by getting his black credentials by going to Rev. Wrights popular church.

Mrs. Obama is the face of racism — her college thesis is full of racist statements.

This is so damned sad — MLK is certainly rolling in his grave. But then Obama is part of the group that historically broke away from the MLK civil rights movement– so Obama doesn’t seem to share the MLK philosophy.

 
 

Comment by john | 2008-05-06 22:35:44

Drop out…she didn’t get exactly what she wanted but she got what she need thats a win in Indiana, allowing her to go into W.VA and Kentucky where she can make up what popular lead he got tonigh. The Obama camp doesn’t want this to go to W.VA and Kentucky giving her back to back wins …So you will hear the drop out calls they will buy more super delegates trying to apply all the pressure they can, I am
a willing to bet Obama won NC with half of the same voters that voted for him in SC they drove acrossed, I am more than sure they re-registered in NC as did the Chicago voters in Lake County Indiana…Hillary is up against some shrewd corrupted players, Thats the Chicago WAY

Comment by jangles | 2008-05-06 22:49:16

John: I totally agree with you concerning the Chicago way and mobile voters; the tragedy is that we will never be able to prove this until it is way too late. We will never be able to prove it because it will never be investigated in this time because we have no free and independent press, just pundits who sell their air access for political power access. But some day the book will be written on this campaign and we will come to know how this woman has been shredded by this candidate poser and all who have pushed him forward. He is not a politician. He is a self-centered opportunist. The great thing about a Hillary nomination would be Brazile leaving the party. She should be removed from the DNC, immediately.

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:56:39

we don’t need to it’s simply on ops to create confusion, and disillusion. You’re upset about this engineered, scripted primary, and it’s build up, this evening, and they’re acting on your emotions, all part of the plan.

It’s nothing, it’s a blip, I expect more.

How are the cheaters being trolled, again despite the many victories of Rove, no permanent agenda has been achieved, in fact, they have overall, LOST power.

So that’s a good thing.

And it’s not over, that’s a troll too.

But we see the “AA” contingent votes as mindlessly as the republicans do, so when it comes to stopping this system of the PR presidency, we’ve gained.

A lot, I’d say.

It doesnt happen overnight, not with THAT crew, anyway.

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-06 22:59:01

And if the AA and the republicans vote as mindlessly as those who will support the Iranians, say, in Iraq, mindlessly, we’ve even achieved more, as the dynamic can be understood across different cultures, this extremism.

 
 
 
 

Comment by TG | 2008-05-06 22:38:59

Calling DNC tomorrow also–Obama will never be able to win the GE and he sure is unable to hold the DNC together because his supporters are just caught up in
his fifteen minutes of fame.

Comment by Gloria | 2008-05-06 23:39:45

I posted the toll-free number in my blog post this AM…

“Call the DNC TOLL-FREE–They Are Taking Comments…Here’s What I Told Them…”

http://insightanalytical.wordpress.com/

I gave them a polite earful…covered every major oint that I wanted to…

But, it boils down to disenfranchisement of voters…in FL, MI…and what the hell is going in Gary??
I know it stinks–drove through there once…it literally stinks and tonight, stinks even more…

 
 

Pingback by Fauxgressives Try to Deny Clinton Indiana « Semidi | 2008-05-06 22:41:41

[…] Clinton lays out what her Indiana victory — and Obama’s Indiana loss — really mean. Take note, […]

 

Comment by SensibleWoman | 2008-05-06 22:47:27

He’ll always be nothing more than BO to me whether he manages to wiggle, legally or illegally, his way into the WH or not. As far as I’m concerned that position of respect has to be earned and he has yet to earn it. The title doesn’t mean squat to me.

 

Comment by JoeySky | 2008-05-06 23:20:39

The con artist is about to steal indiana

 

Comment by it'snotme | 2008-05-06 23:26:17

The Mayor of Gary is trying to steal the election. Funny stuff is going on there! THIS is why the talking heads were acting so strange tonight…talking about FL and MI all of a sudden and refusing to call Indiana for Hillary, but called NC as soon as the polls closed.

The fix is in. The DC elites want Hillary OUT and they’re using Gary Indiana to do it. Check out the thread on TalkLeft.com!

FISHY SHIT IS GOING ON IN GARY.

 

Comment by JM | 2008-05-07 02:57:48

Barack’s appeal to Republicans is a bunch of BS. Yes, there are some weak minded Republicans who support him, but the vast majority of Republicans who are voting for him are doing so to throw a monkey wrench into Hillary’s campaign. They don’t like her, and they don’t want her running in the general election. They have no intention of voting for Obama in the fall. These Republicans know that Hillary is the strongest candidate in the states that the Democrats need to win in the general election.

 

Comment by Kefa | 2008-05-07 05:30:38

This fight has just begun….

THE NUCLEAR OPTION STARTS IN 3…2…1…

Comment by requiemforadancer | 2008-05-07 06:28:07

No one is nuclear, only the stupid republican trolls.

 
 

Comment by Lucinda | 2008-05-07 05:53:35

I saw this morning where Obama blamed Rush Limbaugh for his loss in Indiana. This is why I won’t support Obama. He can’t accept responsibility for anything. He always has to blame someone else.

 

Comment by Poor White | 2008-05-07 08:19:15

I make $38000 a year and gave $50 today to Hillary.
Contribution Details
Date: May 07, 2008 8:56 AM EDT
4120000000
Amount: $50.00

Donate and help Hillary fight for us. Even a $10 or $25 will help.

https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/form.html?sc=2369

 

Comment by LBJ's Love Child | 2008-05-07 08:43:49

Regardless of the outcome of the primaries, I really believe we are witnessing the end of the Democratic Party as a national force.

“Democrats” will continue to win local, primarily urban, races, but will forever be incapable of mounting a national campaign. The growing Hispanic majority will be hand-delivered to the GOP.

The wedge that Obama campaign has driven between the Latte Liberals/African American bloc and the Populist/Traditional Working Class is almost complete.

Donna Brazille celebrates it. She brags today that Dems don’t need the Blue Color vote or the Hispanic vote. She will get her wish this year.

The Defeatocrats appear to have again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I feared this would be the result when the Latte Liberal Poster-boy, Howard “Can’t Buy a Clue” Dean, became chairman of the DNC.

C’est la vie.

P.S. Send Hillary money today. I am.

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-05-07 08:58:46

In the end it maybe the best thing: conservative presidents, and more socially conscience legislators. It kind of balances out the extremism.

Personally, I prefer a moderate legislators and presidents — which ensures more work done, not more gridlock — but the political climate is much more like Gore’s “Global Warming” agenda: a greenhouse of hot air!

 
 

Comment by kenoshaMarge | 2008-05-07 09:30:25

Let me qualify your statement, “When Hillary speaks, We listen”, at least for myself.

If she does indeed lose the nomination and she asks us to support Obama, I will not listen.

I respect Senator Clinton enormously. But even that respect will not make me do something that my conscience and my soul see as wrong.

After all the disgusting things that have been said about Hillary Clinton in this campaign, and about her supporters, voting for Obama would be saying that those things and those tactics are fine with me. Just politics as usual, right? And now we must all get together and defeat the evil Republicans, right?

Except no Republicans amongst my acquaintance has ever called me a racist. No Republican amongst my acquaintance has inferred that because I am an older woman that I am not worthy of respect or inclusion in a political process. In fact, I would be willing to bet that almost any Republican and their supporters would be damned happy to have all the older woman that support Hillary support them and their candidates.

Not saying I will ever vote for a Republican although not saying I won’t. Now that I have shed the burden of being a party loyalist I can now vote for whomever I believe will be the best person for the job. It’s liberating really. And the Democratic Party and its leadership can go to hell. With the exception of Bill and Hillary Clinton and their supporters, of course.

Comment by ChrisXP | 2008-05-07 09:50:38

Except no Republicans amongst my acquaintance has ever called me a racist. No Republican amongst my acquaintance has inferred that because I am an older woman that I am not worthy of respect or inclusion in a political process. In fact, I would be willing to bet that almost any Republican and their supporters would be damned happy to have all the older woman that support Hillary support them and their candidates.

Although I’m not a Republican (not into parties, but issues), but overall conservatives respect older voters as they respect wisdom and traditions (well at least Traditionals).

But don’t count on the GOP to respect you, though. Neo-Cons that run it now aren’t conservatives, they’re actually Far-Left Commies and are behind the mudslinging so seen with Swift Boating candidates. Traditionals don’t like McInsane any better than liberals like him, which is a rare agreement between ideologies. It’s crazy that as a Traditional conservative I wind up defending Dems over Kerry and Dan Rather and other issues, but I do so not because of party but what’s good for the country (a healthy check and balance is critical to maintain our way of life). Unfortunately, partisanship drowns out that folks on either side of the aisle care more about country than party loyalty, though.

Not all on the Right are fascists, like not all on the Left are anarchists. That gets lost in the partisanship today, when either side is seen as the enemy. :(

 
 

Comment by DAWN | 2008-05-13 15:18:07

YOU ALL ARE A BUNCH OF CLINTON RACIST!! HOW ABOUT THAT!

 

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