Math that matters most. (With update from Mr. X, update II from Grey, Update III Hominid Views Monte Carlo)
By V on May 9, 2008 at 11:38 PM in Clinton, Current Affairs, Delegates, Electability, Electoral College, Fox News, Hillary Clinton, Obama, Superdelegates
Many people are asking. “Why isn’t Hillary leaving the race?” Or, “Isn’t the math prohibitive?” Well, the answer is given quite simply by Karl Rove. Now Karl may be a lot of things, but he is not stupid and he knows politics and elections. Unlike Hillary and her surrogates in the Democratic party, he does not have to say, “either candidate can win the general but Hillary is stronger.” 
He can tell the unvarnished version which is that Hillary wins against McCain and Barack loses. So it’s simple, a vote for Barack in the primary is tantamount to a vote for McCain in the general. (The chart to the right reflects Karl’s analysis that Nebraska and North Dakota will end up in the Republican column.) It’s very striking to me that the Democratic fortunes in November are completely reversed if we are foolish enough to nominate Barack. I’m sure this is why many superdelegates are sticking with Hillary or are still undecided. No one wants four or eight more years of a Republican in the White House.
I’ve posted his discussion by Fox News about this and about the Dems problem with Florida.
UPDATE: Please take a look at the analysis by Mr. X who writes that “His [Karl’s] numbers match almost exactly what I have. There is almost ZERO way Obama can win and it’s almost impossible for Hillary to lose in the GE.” )
UPDATE II: Grey at TM in “It’s The Electability, Stupid” points to the new LAtimes/Bloomberg poll as evidence that the, “voters are quite stubbornly disagreeing” that Hillary should get out of the race. Grey also snagged this Morning Joe segment with Terry McAuliffe that’s worth watching. Terry’s exhibiting ample quantities of what someone recently called “testicular fortitude” and I admire and share his relentless optimism.
(UPDATE III. Show me the math!)
Many of us in the Hillary camp are flabbergasted by the lemming march the Obama supporters and their MSM tank drivers seem to be advocating for. Why the deliberate choice to install John McCain into the White House?
The primary contest is now up to the superdelegates whose duty and responsibility is to choose the strongest candidate to defeat the Republican contender. It bears repeating that in this cycle:
-
Neither candidate has or will reach the magic number (2209) of pledged delegates
Neither candidate has an overwhelming lead in the popular vote (Hillary will end up with a bigger number by the time Puerto Rico is counted).
We know who is going to be the opponent — John McCain
We have state-by-state, head-to-head matchup polling data for most of the states
The general election is decided by the Electoral College in a state-by-state, winner-takes-all delegates, with the magic number equal to 270.
The DNC rules state the superdelegates are free to make their minds up about who might be the stronger candidate based on any criteria they choose.
So, with neither candidate able to show enough strength to win 2209 pledge delegates, it’s up to the SDs and how should they decide?
-
Who has more pledged delegates?
Who has more popular vote?
Who makes the prettiest speeches?
Who gave them the most money from their slush fund?
Who has cooler graphics on their web site?
The color of their skin?
Their gender?
Who is most likely to maintain the Democratic majority in Congress?
Who can win the general election vs. John McCain?
Certainly it is not a majority of the pledged delegates, if that was the DNC rule, this contest would already be over. The rules deliberately set up the superdelegates to make a wise choice in case of a virutal tie like we have with Hillary and Barack. As Lanny Davis so often reminds the Obama MSM shills, the rule is most “delegates, not pledged delegates, not super delegates, delegates.”
The nice, democratic feeling popular vote total (will of the electorate and all that) is in no way part of the DNC rules. If it were, Barack would be in WV every day instead of blowing it off to hobnob with the SDs. The popular vote is, of course, a valid criteria for the SDs to use.
Of course, there is only one criteria that should matter — who is going to win the General Election against John McCain (with the secondary consideration being who is more likely to maintain or increase the Democratic majority in Congress).
I keep finding lots of data consistently showing how terrible Barack will do and how very, very strong Hillary is in the GE. For example, here are a couple electoral college charts from a Professor of Anthropology who does a lot of demographic analysis in his day job. He is performing weekly Monte Carlo analyses on the election (performs 10,000 iteration election simulations with randomness added for each matchup) and, once again, the data shows Barack loses and Hillary wins.
The color codes indicated the probability the democrat wins:
If you browse the comments to this post, Barack’s trolls seem completely offended and oh-so defensive when presented with the data. Perhaps this is because they don’t have any of their data to show. In fact, I’m still trying to find ONE data based analysis that shows Barack winning or doing better than Hillary in the general election matchup against John McCain. Here’s your chance Obamabots! C’mon, show me the data… Not too friggin’ likely. Instead I’m sure I’ll be hearing more of the hopium-changeyium B.S. Or I’ll have someone try to pass of a popular vote analysis as valid. Or a desperate, pathetic pledged delegate argument that makes zero sense for the General Election.
Thank our lucky stars the SDs will figure out what is in the best interests of the Democratic party by the time we get to Denver. Perhaps, once everyone’s had their chance to vote, Barack will do the right thing and concede. Go Hillary!!!
Over a dozen members of Congress from swing states had this to say in a letter they sent to their colleagues today:
Pennsylvania was not just a victory for Hillary Clinton. It was also a wake- up call for superdelegates, forcing us to ask ourselves two essential questions: 1) Which candidate can carry the magic 270 electoral votes to win in the fall? 2) Which candidate is most likely to help our fellow Democrats in down-ballot races? We believe the answer to both of these questions is Hillary Clinton.
On the first question, Hillary has shown she can win the all-important battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida even while being outspent. This speaks to her ability to connect with voters we must deliver in the fall, including blue collar Democrats who can sway this election as they have in the past.
On the second question, Hillary has won rural and suburban districts which we as Democrats must carry to maintain our edge in Congress. Of the fifteen districts rated “toss up” by the Cook Political Report, Hillary has now won ten. Of the 20 districts we picked up in 2006 that had gone for President Bush just two years before, Hillary has now won 16. She is strong in the places we must win to hold and expand our majority.
This is a historically close race. The candidates are separated by a mere percentage point or two and the path to victory for each candidate is the same: win in the upcoming states and secure enough pledged and automatic delegates to get to the number required to win the nomination.
+++
We Democrats are justifiably proud of both of our candidates, and if Senator Obama is our Party’s nominee, we will enthusiastically support him. But our responsibility is not to choose simply to support the eventual nominee; it is to help select the nominee who is best for our party and best for our country. Our choice is clear: Hillary Clinton is that candidate. We believe she should be your choice as well.
Thank you for consideration.
Sincerely,
Rep. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV-01)
Rep. Marion Berry (AR-1)
Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
Rep. Gene Green (TX -29)
Rep. John Hall (NY-19)
Rep. Darlene Hooley (OR-5)
Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL-17)
Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH-11)
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (TX-16)
Rep. Mike Ross (AR-4)
Rep. Joe Sestak (PA-8)
Rep. Ike Skelton (MO-4)
Rep. John Tanner (TN-8)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20)
I can understand the argument that Hillary has a better shot, but its just not convincing to most people (and for that matter superdelegates).
Superdelegates will do the dance. But I disagree that it’s not convincing to the people. That’s why the math is what it is…BECAUSE of the people. The superdelegates aren’t going to mean squat to the people in November. They vote their comfort zone. And THIS is why the Democratic party has only elected TWO presidents in thirty years. And only one of them was a two termer. If the party wants to shove people down the voters’ throats as a nominee, they can do that. But so long as they do that, we will never prevail.
They don’t want to shove a candidate down anyone’s throat. That’s insane talk. Obama has simply won. That’s what the nomination process is all about. If anyone was being shoved down anyone’s throat it was Hillary. Everyone was told she was the “inevitable” winner for ages. Remember the real story is that Barack Obama was the underdog in this race. He overcame great odds by winning this nomination and he did it with the help of more people & more states than Clinton. You don’t just hold a whole election and then say “oh but right now this one poll shows Clinton doing better in the national, so she wins.” It just doesn’t work like that. That would be a disgrace of a system.
Boy, you are a rock star…
LOL
There’s requiemforstupidity again with her lofty stupidity. lol lol
the only one who is stupid zzzobamatot is you.
excellent retort worthy of a 3rd grade education. lol
which is just about what your education level is right?
Superdelegates are, for the most part, elected officials. Elected officials care about one thing more than anything else: re-election. That’s why they’re turning to Obama left and right. They know that Hillary would not be as effective in getting other down-ticket Democrats elected. The superdelegates Hillary has are largely the ones she got before the campaign even began. The ones that have declared since the primaries began are the ones that truly know Obama is going to be better for the Democratic Party.
Besides, if Obama is such a lousy candidate, then why did the inveitable Hillary lose to him? Same thing will happen to McCain in the Fall. America is sick of Bush and his policies, and they want change. That’s why McCain got none of the standard poll bounce that most candidates get following the nomination.
I. Will. Type. slowly.
Obama only becomes the candidate because our votes in Florida were not counted.
Chicken.
Shit.
He lost then. He would lose now. He will lose in November.
Hillary didn’t lose. She has been denied. And many of us will not fall in line behind Obama. Won’t. Happen.
You speak very powerfully… and I’m glad you spoke slowly so Obama supporters could understand you! You are so right…Hillary did not lose…she has been denied…and we won’t forget about it.
even if you include florida, she’s still behind in votes and delegates.
don’t worry, there will be an agreement about the delegates from FL and MI. It will be to Hillary’s advantage. Obama has not won.
Here’s some numbers you need to pay very close attention too…
Yahoo Political Dashboard - Voters by Race:
——————————————
Caucasian - 66%
Hispanic - 15%
African-American - 12%
Asian - 4%
Other - 3%
Don’t diss WHITE blue-collared workers nor Hispanics, or you can wait 100 years for a Black president.
The math doesn’t lie in who actually helps get candidates elected.
Obama does NOT help the down ticket candidates. An example: I was at the Pierce County Democratic Convention when Congressman Adam Smith gave a speech. The first words out of his mouth were, “As you know I am an enthusiastic Obama supporter.” Immediately the woman to my right said, “Well he just lost my vote.” And the two to my left said, “Mine too.” In fact one of them said, “I’m going to tell him to his face.” When he finished speaking she got up, walked across that large auditorium, found Congressman Smith and told him he lost her vote by supporting Obama.
“You don’t just hold a whole election and then say “oh but right now this one poll shows Clinton doing better in the national, so she wins.” It just doesn’t work like that. That would be a disgrace of a system.”
Quit making sense…
lol lol that’s a good one. But true.
You are an idiot. Get used to saying president mccain.
No thanks to a President McCain! America will reject a 3rd term of George W. Bush.
To most people Obama is worse than McCain.
Simply not true. Latest polls show McCain now has higher negatives than Obama does.
Also if are going to trust polls so much maybe it’s time to take California away and give it to Obama ->
http://cbs5.com/politics/poll.clinton.obama.2.720136.html
Well, thankfully we have that poll to inform us of the less than 1700 sheep…who want to change their vote after seeing someone else’s state result.
How impressive.
Really, it’s just as impressive as Obama stealing MLKs tone….JFKs words….and Ceasar Chavez’ battle cry.
The intellectually lazy, Pavlovian politician, who is exploiting 45 years of tv clips, has sway over sheep…and this is news? LOL
Yes, how convenient to take a poll months after the real election and decide that the election results would be different today. Must have been an Obama supporter who took that poll. As you know, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.
I live and vote in CA and I don’t know of one person who has changed their vote from Hillary to Obama. In fact, the opposite is true and Obama is not as popular since the Wright issue and Bittergate have came out. A very loyal Obama supporter that I work with is now “luke warm” towards him. Not a good sign for you Obamabots if Obama secures the nomination by garnering the magic number of delegates. Which, BTW, he hasn’t done at this point. States are still voting in case you haven’t noticed.
If Obama is the nominee he will loose California, New York Florida and Michigan. Race over.
You can not look at the electoral map in a vacuum. Take a look at what is happening in the world.
It will be about National Security. A very nasty conflict is brewing.
And Obama has NO experience or judgement to deal with any of it.
Most people in America? Not according to polls. Most people on No Quarter maybe.
Listen if we are no problem and it’s all set and Barky is already president and everything, then why bother coming here? We are incidental right? Right?
Uppity you know better. Like I said earlier I respect your position for not wanting to vote for Obama, but I don’t understand it. Despite all the bitterness on both sides we have got to get past the petty thinking. Rise above it. If the tables were turned, how much would McCain disgust you? And why? And then ask yourself why is it any different now? Give me substantive policy, not the other personal crap. Just reaching out here.
Obama is certainly not already President, but he will be the Democrat nominee. And since most of the people here are Hillary supporters I assume they are also Democrats. That means we have some work to do to beat John McCain, together. Hillary will be working with Obama to win the national and all of you should as well. I know I would be helping Hillary if she were the nominee just as I would have with John Edwards or Bill Richardson. Or in my dream of dreams Dennis Kucinich
You may get to work to elect Hillary, yet. As you know the nominee isn’t decided until August…so, you’ve got time to practice calling for Hillary. We just don’t know who is going to be the nominee…the convention will surely be the most exciting convention ever.
zzzot comment;
I respect your position for not wanting to vote for Obama, but I don’t understand it.
Mr. Music comment;
And since most of the people here are Hillary supporters I assume they are also Democrats.
I don’t understand it; I assume they are also Democrats.
—–
I am a human being first, An American second, an Independent last.
As a human being I can’t vote for BO because he profited on the misery of others.
As an American, BO’s associations are repugnant and un-American.
As an Independent BO is not qualified for the office of POTUS and as Mr. Johnson pointed out, with out assumption required, is at a minimum a politically and constitutionally ignorant.
To understand; you can not assume anything.
exactly - obamatots. isn’t life a bowl of cherris for you right now? why aren’t you happy and gloating with your buddies on your home turf. if you really have cinched this nomination, coming here, acting like arrogant pricks is very, very low class and downright sleazy.
It’s ‘The Way of the Barry’, of all the aspects of the Barry candidacy…his arrogance….his ignorance…his lazyness…his love of all things ReThug…the most worrying thing, the scariest thing is the mindset of his followers. Followers they be, in many cases they make Barry look smart, but the attitudes they express would fit in perfectly at RedState or LGF.
Racist, that’s what you are when you say white people won’t vote for a black man; intolerant, you don’t luv you some Barry you suck; and the big one, the most Fascist gaggle of AssClowns outside of the Republican Party. Get this straight buttheads: Every vote counts. Period. You wanna play ‘Banana Republic’ take yourselves and Barry off to Africa. W.E.B. duBois would approve.
In closing, there is a reason SuperDelegates exist and it’s a good one. I’ll give you a hint:
‘Dukakis’
Obamatots!
There are no caucuses in the GE. Unless you and he plan to “accidently” recount all those absentee ballots twice like was done in NC.(15,000) as reported by Sonia downthread. h and let’s not forget that messy business from Guam and Indiana. The GOP will not let Obama get away with that again.
Obama did not win only caucuses… That’s a very selective memory indeed! Beating Clinton has been very tough because of her huge brand name. Remember she was a HUGE favorite. Obama was a big underdog and behind by a lot of when the race began, he overcame all of that to win. I truly think that beating McCain will be a cakewalk compared to beating Clinton (and that’s a compliment to Clinton.) Obama is already ahead of McCain and the campaign hasn’t even started yet! McCain has had NO negative news coverage in months! And Obama hasn’t had his “nomination bump” just yet. I expect Obama to not only beat McCain I expect it to be a landslide.
Are you delusional or dreaming? I haven’t seen this many Dem voters against a candidate since the Dem swung their votes to Regan years ago. I only know of one Hillary supporter who says they will vote for Obama if he secures the nomination and she doesn’t have healthcare. The rest are either saying they will sit out this election or will vote for McCain. I’d be very surprised if Obama wins the GE. You have a wounded candidate there. But hey, I’m sure that the blacks who are 12% of the country and the whites in red states will give you your victory. Yes, keep thinking that you will win with your narrow base.
Yes, he won the Illinois primary, his home state, and other states that were approximately 50% black. Sweet dreams.
you mean, like wisconsin?
There are no caucuses in the GE. I actually had some arguments with a few Obamabots who told me there were. (OY) I can’t believe Obama is who we’re putting up against the GOP. What Obamabots don’t understand is, you’re not running against Mccain, you’re running against the whole right wing machine. They re-labeled a rich, uneducated, vile, blue blooded, closet homosexual as a guy average Americans want to have a beer with. And he won…twice. Obama doesn’t stand a chance. The NYT already has a story up about Obama’s “REAL” Hamas ties. Not made up ones. He dead on arrival.
wisconsin held a primary, not a caucus.
Maybe all the republicans will stay home and all those states he won when they weren’t voting can be Barry’s.
Yeah, they’ll just tell the Republicans a DIFFERENT day … that should do it, right?
The “inevitable winner” was negative spin from cable news spin to make her dislikable.
Cable news kept referring to B.O. as the underdog, because America loves an underdog.
I’m glad Obama won. It would be nice if he would now pull back his Clinton smear campaign via his web operatives. He has been waging this under-the-radar smear campaign on Clinton for over 6 months, and the blogs are getting really sick of Obama trolls.
Why do you think he has “web operatives” that is just paranoid talk. I think most people who post comments and make blogs about how they dislike Hillary are doing that because that’s how they feel. I do not think they are organized by Obama’s campaign in any way, anymore than you were organized by Clinton’s camp to type the things you do.
that’s an understatement
He has not won. Geez, you don’t declare a winner until they cross the finish line. Anything can happen.
He hasn’t won, and he won’t.
He hasn’t won and he’s not going to win. I certainly appreciate your posting about the “inevitable” quote. I didn’t realize that was a set-up. Of course, I’m a little more jaded now :-J.
You have no idea why superdelegates were created do you?
To override elections in case someone the party deemed “undesirable” won the election? Yeah, that’s why. They were a really stupid idea to begin with. There is no Democratic party if the people don’t decide who their nominee should be.
Then tell us why that’s desireable?
I’ll save you from the pain of actually coming up with a non-programmed answer: the EC could disqualify your candidate AFTER the election.
The Founders were very wise men. They understood that the mob can do some very bad things — Thomas Paine was about to be executed by that very French Revolution, BTW — and ensured that there’s a safeguard in place to prevent weirdos as presidents.
The SDs saves everyone the embarassment of Mickey Mouse (yes, THAT Mickey Mouse) being the next Democrat nominee to run for president, and the EC having to pull the plug on the sideshow.
that avenue doesn’t seem very promising, now that obama’s ahead in the supers.
Do you understand that the Super Delegates do not vote until the convention is actually in session? Until that time, they are not actually committed, they are only rented as publicity so to speak. ANY super delegate can change his or her vote until that vote is cast in the convention. That is the reason Obama is so frantic to try to get Hillary to quit. He is not chosen because he cannot get enough pledged delegates to assure his nomination even if he were to win all the rest of the primnaries and he is expected to lose all of the rest of the primaries except for maybe one or two and they are really iffy for him. He is just blowing smoke and I’ll bet you thought he had quit smoking. Not yet, he hasn’t.
To do something that has never been done in the history of any US election primary? Overturn the votes of Candidate that has the most popular votes, the most delegates, and the most states won? Change democracy as we know it? Is that why the super delegates were created?
Precedents are so nice!
Imagine the constitutional crisis we would have, when news of something godawful in Barry’s past came on election day or little afterwards, and we’re stuck with a thug otherwise.
Why the Electorial College exists. They’re the Super-Duper-Duper-Delegates.
obama,
wasnt the better candidate, he’s the cheating candidate. we know it, and obamas people know it. dont give us that obama is the peoples choice crap.
we may be eating it, but we’re not stupid.
and many thousands of people are coming together to find ways to screw obama at any costs, in every way, along with the democratic party, that has been taken over by cheating school kids, and rich liberals who can buy off the super d’s, and from the sly win at any expense leftest group..
so if we eat it during this primary, we will rise up and make obama eat it during the primary.
we may be the more conservative arm of the dem party, but we are all the baby boomers, who did not go thru fire and ice, to come out on this side and have some hypnotic wanna be steal our party.
either we will get hillary to splinter off and start that all exciting third party, or we will be the ‘new old democratic republican party…
How is he the “cheating” candidate when it’s Clinton who is trying to change the rules and move the goalposts because she’s losing. And by the way even if with FLA & Michigan seated as is (which is ridiculously unfair), Hillary still loses the elected delegate and popular vote counts.
silencing the votes of 3 million people is RIDICULOUSLY unfair!
Quit it… lol Hillary knew the rules. She’s an opportunist and a liar, you all are buying into that crap because that all you have to CLING to. Let it go.
nope…it’s called democracy and the last time I checked we have voter’s rights, and the DNC is trampling on the rights of 3 million FL and MI voters. Silencing these people is a disgrace. your camp, the DNC is WRONG!
You Obamabots sure like to disenfrachise any voters that aren’t for Obama. That’s part of your M.O., isn’t it?
After you cheat to win and trash Clinton and her supporters for months, you’re suddenly over here begging for votes. Your desperation is showing. It’s disgusting.
SKMF
Be still my heart! Music to my ears.
I see they’ve sent in the Oprah-trained trolls, the ‘reach-out and touch someone’ kumbaya motherfuckas. Funny, I couldn’t find a single one of these types all Primary Season long. All I heard was how they would NEVER vote for Hillary, c*nt, bitch, and whatever else vile name they could think of. Now that they’ve gone back to old school math, they want to make room for us in the sand pile with the rat shit.
When Howard Dean was hatching his 48 state strategy, while watching videos of the OJ trial, boning up on how to get the black community in the same frenzied stupor of blind stupid loyalty so that he could send his little wind up toy barnstorming through the southern black democratic dominated states, then bogart the Caucus states with Chicago style politics and hopefully bend Hillary into submission before anybody caught on after Super Tuesday, - he forgot a couple of things:
The Internet, Blogs, youtube, email, videos and all of that fine 21st century technology that our political leaders haven’t fully come to grips with.
He also didn’t realize how very smart Hillary is and how Barack isn’t as smart as he thinks he is. He also didn’t realize that the shameless behavior of the MSM would cause people to shake their heads and wonder what’s going on here?
Forcing them to seek out truth in alternative media.
In short: Howard and the Democratic Leadership have been EXPOSED!
So let’s get real: You trolls are all are gate crashers to our party here. The skin has been peeled back from our eyes and we are now fully aware.
Once you know, you cannot not know.
And what most of us know is that BO cannot win without us. You either want our votes or you want us to stay home and many have decided to neither.
We did the math months ago. Would it were that you all had done the same. And maybe Howard should have figured out a way for Obama to win at least one other big state besides his own. But that’s right, Hillary was supposed to leave the race before the light was shone on that pretty big fact.
Pity, the best laid plans of mice and – rats…….
Make them EARN your vote!
No money; no time; no vote unless the candidate represents your values.
More Dems demand a candidate that CAN WIN, that isn’t some goof ball that will lose the GE for being a robot; to looking like the butler on the Munsters; to having political views that makes Swift Boating required for the good of the country — the Dems will FINALLY have presidential winners.
It’s that simple. No rocket science needed.
Mimi, you are so eloquent. Why are Obama supporters descending upon us now? They don’t seem to be very confident or secure with a lead. Do you think they attended a meeting last week, where all of the very relevent blogs were assigned for attack?
Actually, he is not the most left. With his half a health care plan, plans to “reform” Social Security, and love of the “free markets” he is more like a Repub than many of the candidates have been.
In many ways, he is to the right of HRC.
Right, left…he’s like the Artful Dodger, but not amusing or entertaining.
Fuck you!
Obama has not WON — you jerk.
Obama is a dipshit idiot — who has played the system.
But he has not won —
Count the fricking votes and Florida and Michigan.
You arrogant mofo obamabots have got your heads up your ass.
Go to hell!
I’ve had it with you MOFO dipshit follower invading this space — go to the Orange Satan or some other Terrorist place — go away and go to hell.
NWR, I’ve taken to not reading them, just reading the replies. Then you get all the meaty intelligence, without all the gristle. Delicious!
Mr. Music is right.
If you don’t like the candidates that this nomination process comes up with, change the nomination process.
Which I think is a terrific idea.
silver you seem to be ignoring the process and the rules, what has obama won? 2209 baby, is obama there? When obama gets his ass kicked in WV by a HUGE margin and in KT by a HUGE margin and in PR, she will have the popular vote and the SDs’ arent their to wipe your asses they are their to choose the most electable candidate. Now you all have had your hands held throughout this process with the msm, but reality will come to light when this “process” is over. If the SDs fuck up and give it to obama well you all are going to be crying in November, and it won’t be because your happy.
A forty eight state campaign where a significant number of his victories are in red states?
You’re kidding me? Right? So who’s delusional?
obama hasn’t won anything, does he have the 2025 or ther 2209 when MI & FL are reinstated? Sorry the criteria for the SDs’ aren’t who has more delegates and by the time the primaries are over Hillary will more than likely have more of the popular vote. Sorry music you don’t have a leg to stand on right now, so until your guy gets to that magic number of 2209 you can swoon all you want, but facts are facts.
to Mr Music..
you said: “They don’t want to shove a candidate down anyone’s throat. That’s insane talk. Obama has simply won.”
No MrMusic ..he has not won..he has won nothing, maybe you like being manipulated and maybe some people in this country don’t mind being manipulated..but until Mi and Fla are counted ..Obama hasn’t won jack shit. And until the last state votes..Obama has not won a damn thing.
and If you are one of those who like being manipulated as you seem to be..2025 will be the number you accept..but my being from Florida..and being a former elected delegate..i will tell you boldly you are being manipulated to believe that number..because the actual number is 2209…to win the nomination of this party..and i who can not be manipulated will not consider anyone a nominee or legitimate to be the nominee of the Dem party without the 2209 number!
So please take your propaganda somewhere else where people are easily manipulated, like you are..we here at Larry’s site..we can not be fooled by fools like you.
thank you..good bye..
fly
oh and furthermore..please do figure out how Obama will get the numbers needed in the electoral votes without Florida..because one thing i can assure you..Obama will never ever ever win Florida!!
fly
We need to do a 2209 campaign to the DNC, etc.
Only 2209 is legit!
But by trying to force Hillary to withdraw, Obama is attempting to be shoved down our throats; however, I went along with voting for Kerry in 2004 but that will not happen in 2008. This is one long-time devoted Democrat who will vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee.
Hillary was never shoved down anyone’s throat. She was knee-capped by every news media on television, radio, newspapers and magazines. Obama was always touted even on my AOL. You were brainwashed by the mass media. Don’t get it? If your an honest person, you will see that is a fact. Obama was touted the underdog that he never was. The party elite picked him and shoved him down everyone’s throat. Preferential treatment because they picked him. As far as winning more states that’s bunk. He won Republican states because they helped with the vote for him. He won caucuses because they are unfair and his minions helped make sure it was crooked. If the real count is counted in Indiana I am sure you will find that Hillary won by a much larger margin, the same goes for Texas. Nothing about this election has been fair, least of all Obama and his supporters. You know that Hillary Clinton is the best candidate. Stop drinking the kool-aid. Read up on your guy. No everything you read or hear is true for any candidate but you can try going to the real media for a change, like this site.
Shove… give me a break Uppity. You all make it sound like Obama was plucked out of thin air. Like he hasn’t won more states, like he hasn’t got more delegates, more popular votes. Man, reality sucks doesn’t it.
since he won, you can now go away.
See above comment. It applies to you.
Obama was plucked out of your ass. He “won” because of the busloads of savages at caucuses. You should thank Clinton for not hanging out the hundreds of documented complaints in public, for starters. He won because he suppressed revotes in Florida and Michigan. Don’t deny it because I will not waste my time proving it AGAIN every time one of you passes through here and tries to keep me busy doing your work for you. Now he wants all the michigan votes of voters who voted for someone ELSE. That’s right. That way he doesn’t get too many less delegates. What IS this, Affirmative action nomination time? He won states that were also heavily AA. What’s he going to do in November when all the Republicans in those states vote? Some of those states haven’t gone D since the SIXTIES. Oh yeah that’s right, it’s going to change for him. He has pissed off Ohio, PA, Florida and Michigan. His numbers in MASS are dismal. McCain is even showing better than he is in NY or all places. These are states no Dem wins without and they are SWING states. Do you understand what a swing state is? You haven’t been in politics very long have you? Superdelegates were put in place to avoid another McGovern disaster. Now Obama has them all shitting afraid of riots, so congratulations. YOu have given us a loser in November. And don’t even imagine it will go any other way. Republicans DO vote, and so do all those hicks and so do all those Jews and so do all those Catholics and so do all those pissed off Italians and Irish Wright gave the finger to. Gays and lesbians vote, Seniors vote. and all of these blocks see Obama as an insult to them. Do you think he is going to wave his magic Hopey wand and fix that? Good luck with that. I am done with you clowns. If you want to play with yourselves in the dark and put the party into marginal status AGAIN, like the same radical nutcase lefties have done before, go for it. No skin off my nose. The party isn’t my life and I will be fine no matter who is president. But don’t even imagine for a moment that you have a winner on your hands.
Now get the fuck out of my face. Nobody wants you here and we all know you are only here because we BOTHER you. If you didn’t, you wouldn’t bother with us.
Are you really complaining about Obama getting the “uncommitted” votes in Michigan when he wasn’t even on the ballot? Seriously?! You realize that if Michigan voted again now it’d probably be an Obama win or a tie at worst. So um… You really think they should just count Mighigan and give her all of the delegates. Why again? I mean… this is just headshaking.
And your use of “savages” is uncalled for.