Margins of Error: Obama’s Shrinking Map
By Bud White on July 10, 2008 at 6:33 PM in Barack Obama, Current Affairs, Democrats, Electability, Electoral College, Florida, John Kerry, John McCain, Ohio, Popular Vote, Presidential Candidates, Race, Red States
No Quarter published two fascinating posts on Tuesday about the current state of the race between McCain and Obama. Taken together, these two pieces of analysis convey ominous news for Obama.
The first post, Obama’s Flawed Race Strategy: Why the Black Vote Won’t Be Enough by iam0nly1, argues convincingly that Obama’s weakness in the Rust Belt cannot be offset by African American voters in the South:
Obama’s entire claim to redrawing the political map is based on his perceived ability to win in Southern states precisely because of African American voters. After all, this is why Hillary’s claim that she alone was capable of winning large swing states that Democrats must win, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, went unnoticed and unheeded by Dean, Pelosi and others. However, this is a severe and dangerous gamble.
Obama is in serious trouble in Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and, particularly, Florida. Consequently, he’s trying to expand into traditional red states, especially Virginia and Georgia in the South, and the Rocky Mountain West region.
The second post, by Charles Lemos, is a video and PowerPoint presentation by renowned pollster Douglas Schoen. On the surface, it seems to be good news for Obama. He now leads McCain, the country wants change, and a generic Democrat beats a generic Republican:
Lemos is correct that Schoen’s analysis is a snapshot of the current situation:
I think the presentation is accurate as of right now. In politics, nothing is static. Events happen but of as right now, Obama is leading and Schoen’s presentation, I think, offers reasons why.
Many commentators have referenced Michael Dukaksis’ infamous 17 point lead over George H. W. Bush in 1988 as a cautionary warning to Obama. Beware, the argument goes, summer’s highs can evaporate in the fall after the withering attacks by the Republicans.
All of this has me thinking about a more recent election. In 2004, my preferred candidate did win the Democratic nomination — and there was real unity in our Party. Iraq was spinning out of control, Americans felt shame about the horrific pictures coming out of Abu Ghraib prison, and the Democrats were about to nominate a genuine war hero. Looking up Democracy Corps’ polling analysis from July 22, 2004, I found that Obama’s situation is strikingly similar (if slightly weaker) compared to where John Kerry was at the same time. Karl Agne, writing for Democracy Corps, sounded even more optimistic about Democratic chances than does Schoen today:
The Kerry-Edwards ticket heads to the Democratic Convention in Boston with a great deal of momentum behind them. In a race that has been surprisingly stable and evenly divided since Kerry truly emerged as the nominee in March – characterized by small swings in either direction usually predicated by events in Iraq and in the nation’s economy – Kerry and Edwards are enjoying an undeniable shift in voter attitudes. Kerry leads Bush in every national poll released this month, reaching 50 percent in the last two surveys of likely voters.
~snip~
Virtually every poll released in the last couple weeks shows Kerry making tremendous gains in these individual states. In fact, Kerry now leads in the most recent poll in every state won by Gore in 2000 and is either winning or within the margin of error in all 11 battleground states won by Bush. In making such strong gains at this stage, Kerry has put himself in an enviable position and can now use the unparalleled exposure of the Democratic Convention to solidify these gains, reinforcing his already strong support in the Democratic base and reaching out to even more Independents and newly engaged voters.
Besides the fluctuations of polls, what’s interesting about the above statement is the reference to the battleground states. Because of our Electoral College system, national polls (as cited by Schoen) can only tell you so much, and this is where the news becomes ominous for Obama. Unless he has a huge national lead in the fall, Obama will likely be fighting for the same swing states for which Kerry fought. iam0nly1 argues that African Americans are unlikely to increase their numbers sufficiently to carry Obama in Southern states. With the South off the table, Obama will also be disadvantaged in the Rust Belt and Florida, and he will be fighting for the Rocky Mountain West:
[Obama’s team] discuss the Rocky Mountain states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, but frankly, even if he wins those three, and Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (all three of which will be highly competitive), if he loses Ohio and Florida, he will lose the election 267-271 (this count includes all the states Kerry won). In short, if Obama loses Ohio and Florida, the three Rocky Mountain states and Georgia and Virginia become must win states.
In short, Obama’s minuscule national lead today — prior to the expected Republican assault — will show Obama to be a map-changer, but not in the direction he hopes.
That’s why it’s not too late, Superdelegates!
“We cannot win with eggheads and AA” - Paul Begala
http://youtube.com/watch?v=l-2ZG60iDRs
You called it my friend. So much for Donna Brazzeeele and her “new democratic coalition.”
Good link. Well worth watching, if only to see DB squirm.
It was DONNA BRAZILES plan to win year with the help of the Religious voters, DONNA and the rest of the DNC backed Obama because they thought he could get those votes, guess they should have looked at Rev. Wright and Father Mike first. READ THIS, Written by DONNA BRAZILE NOV. 5, 2004, it’s called “WHY AMERICANS HATE DEMOCRATS” How To Tap Into The Obama Factor. http://www.slate.com/id/2109328
from the article by Donna Brazile -
>>>In this coming season, Democrats must resist going back to using terms like affirmative action, pro choice, union, and “the movement” to describe what we’re for. These words are limited and often open to negative interpretation from the right. But once we agree on a shared vision to connect our progressive social values of faith, family, hard work, loyalty, opportunity, security, and prosperity for all, we will soar again.
She needs to write on entitled Why Half the Democrats Hate Donna Brazile.
I think it’s more than half.
Good line.
It basically comes down to PA and OH. If McCain turns around those states he probably wins.
“Many commentators have referenced Michael Dukaksis’ infamous 17 point lead over George H. W. Bush in 1988″
McCain ain’t running on Reagan’s record. McCain wasn’t a Vice President. Iraq isn’t Grenada. Democrats haven’t run congress for decades as they did back in 1988. Obama has gobs more money than Dukakis. Obama is a better candidate and better positioned politically than Dukakis ever was. And Obama owns McCain in visibilty, press coverage, GOTV operation, fundraising, voter enthusiasm, and media management.
Every major variable is different than it was back in 1988. But, please, don’t let that stop you from making the comparison..
They have not even vetted the Real Obama which starts August 29
Yep…Bambi is getting the velvet glove for now. On 8/29, the full arsenal comes out.
Sure. 8/29.
“The way to continue our fight now is to take our passion our energy our strength and to do all we can to elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States.”
- Hillary Clinton
“Eff you Hillary”
- NoQuarter
ummm…
Eff you.
Have a nice day.
OH… and
KMA!
“Now when I started this race, I intended to win back the White House, and make sure we have a president who puts our country back on the path to peace, prosperity, and progress. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do by ensuring that Barack Obama walks through the doors of the Oval Office on January 20, 2009.”
- Hillary Clinton
“We voted for Bush twice”
- NoQuarter
ummm…just like your hero obobobambi. Parroting the words of the REAL Democratic nominee as a strategy for scoring points.
Is that in chapter one or two of the obamobot training manual?
“but I’m going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me … understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama,”
- Hillary Clinton
“We never believed in her marxist beliefs anyway”
-NoQuarter
ummm…you’ve soiled your underoos. Please go home to have your mommy change them. You’re starting to make it stink in here.
In the meantime, 3 t-shirts and 3 - $50.00 donations are on their way to pay down the remaining portion of Hillary’s debt.
GFY Ahole
“Life is too short, time is too precious, and the stakes are too high to dwell on what might have been. We have to work together for what still can be. And that is why I will work my heart out to make sure that Senator Obama is our next President and I hope and pray that all of you will join me in that effort.”
- Hillary Clinton
“Not Democrats. Not feminists. Not rational.”
-NoQuarter
Go slam your dick in a door.
Hilarious thread. I love the NQ responses. This encapsulates this site perfectly.
As for the polls, at least on this issue time will prove one side correct and the other incorrect. Being ahead in the polls in July isn’t worth too much, but one thing it is worth more is being behind in July.
Actually your wrong.
They are almost even at this point.
McCain being the underdog at this point is much better as people will rally to his cause.
People will also go out of there way to make it happen.
Front runners at this stage usually get all the bombardment of negatives which have an effect over time.
Actually, you’re contradicting yourself. First you say they are almost even (the reality is, according to consolidated polling, Obama is 4.6% ahead in a head-to-head, 5.2% ahead in four person race) then you say McCain has an advantage becaue he is behind, and Obama has disadvantage becasue he is ahead.
So which is it? Is there an underdog and a frontrunner, or are they almost even?
ummm why don’t u go f***k urself next.
Obama said “Eff you, Hillary” with his middle finger.
lame.
And Obama has more skeletons in his closet. When they come out you will need a new job.
umm is giddy because Obama voted yes on FISA. In 2009, umm looks forward to spying on us and catching us committing speechcrimes against Big Brother Barack.
Unless the Repubs use it on Obambi and his Merry Men of crooks first.
They have, Hope.
He needs to spy on Larry Sinclair, Peter Fitzgerald and his so called Grandmother who poured everything he she had in”raising” Him (I bow my head in reverence) and is holed up in the same apartment in Hawaii.
Where is Granny? And why is he hiding her?
I keep wondering that too. I noticed when he referred to his grandmother “somewhere in Hawaii”. apparently he doesn’t know precisely where
Obviously they are not close. My take on it is that she knows he is a pathological narcissist, and but she is loyal enough (family ties) to keep her mouth shut. If she had any good feelings about him, she’d be all over the campaign. Imagine his white grandmother campaigning for him. Total winner. And she won’t do it, and he won’t ever go into details about her. WHY? And why doesn’t the MSM investigate? Aren’t there any enterprising reporters out there who haven’t drunk the Kool-aid?
Yes, where is THE GRANDMOTHER?
Has she ANYTHING to say at all about BHO BHO?
Why is she hidden??? Inquiring minds want to know.
And what was McCain’s position?
That doesn’t matter. Stop trying to bring up issues.
What, Teddy and non-faux-believe, does McCain have to do with Obama’s granny? Please, stay on point.
Follow the comment thread indicator and you will see these comments are in response to a FISA comment. Hope that helps.
McCain’s mother is a riot, though. She was in France and tried renting a car. They told her she was too old, so she bought a car instead. They’re obviously very close, and McCain is very sweet to her. He enjoys her feisty kidding.
Shows me that the McCain’s have good genes.
I think she is 95 or something
Makes McCain look like a kid
McCain’s mother is in her 90’s and she is so proud of her son that she did a commercial for him for Mother’s day.
But no Obother Grandmum. Does he really have a white Grandmother??? Maybe he was adopted or stolen at birth!
And Dukakis wasn’t the immoral,Anti American, back-tracking crook we know Obama is. How much did your messiah spend so far in a year a Republican couldn’t possibly win to have less of a lead than nearly every other Dem at this point?
Have you noticed he’s already spending tons on airtime to promote accomplishments he never made like, wlefare reform, and helping veterans.
He’s a liar, and you are a fool.
Fundraising is bad too. The Repubs have twice as much money. The DNC is spending money like water. $3 mil for the move to the oversized stadium.
Actually McCain ran more ads in June that Obama. You really need to get off NQ sometime and read some real news.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/mccain_adviser_were_outspendin.php
If I remember correctly, there were places where Hillary Clinton was outspent 4 to 1, even 5 to one, and she still won. So much about money.
Duh
I heard Backtrack Odumbo ended in the red this month. So much for his fundraising prowess. bwahaahahahahah. I guess those paid bloggers will be getting their pink slips as the Obama camp “right-sizes”
All the bundlers are maxed out. There are only 300 million people in the USA. Looks like everybody is maxed out.
So BHO BHO will just have to get his bucks again from out of the country.
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.martial-arts/msg/7e603b4929b2d98c
“OBAMA’S TROUBLING INTERNET FUND RAISING”
“Then, about two months into the campaign the daily contribution intake
multiplied. Where was it coming from? One of the web site security
monitors began to notice the bulk of the contributions were clearly coming
in from overseas internet service providers and at the rate and frequency of
transmission it was clear these donations were “programmed” by a very
sophisticated user.”
Is this like LJ “hearing” about a tape?
I hope not. I would miss “Believe”.
I’m willing to suffer without her.
Read the article….I compared today to 2004.
The republicans have 95 million to spend. Duh duh duh Dean and duh duh duh Donna have what? 3 million on hand? Waffles spends much more money than he takes in and loses anyway.
He’s going to have to hire some big name talent to fill that stadium. (I don’t think the Decembrists are planning any more
free concertspolitical rallies.)O’Bambi is starting to look desperate. He even
pimped outallowed his daughters to be interviewed this week on a cheesy tabloid show. (Offended? I thought it was no big deal to use that term. Hey, I’m just hip like you!)The bloggers are seeing the light and the MSM will follow like the lemmings that they are. (Olberboyy might hold on. It would be too big a blow to his monumrntal ego to admit that he was used, played, bamboozled and hoodwinked by the MESSIAH.(Care to make a special comment on FISA votes and political expediancy, Keith?)
Waffles owns nothing but his pathetic resume and a big piece of property financed by a criminal. He owns no principles, no standards, no ethics, no character. He certainly doesn’t own John Mc Cain. And he ain’t ever gonna own my vote.
Thas ‘Chicken and Waffles’ Sir.
Olberboy is banging a vaporheaded ex-blonde from California who could be his granddaughter in earlier societies. THAT’s why he’s so rabid about the Obama thing–he needs to appear “cool” so he can keep getting some without having to leave cash on the dresser.
Don’t his “hip for and old guy glasses” do the trick anymore? No wonder his major sponsor is Viva Viagra.
As opposed to McCain…
Who’s McCain banging?
good one.
I think the issue of his daughters was deliberately staged, hyped, and inflated to hide, as best he could, his capitulation on FISA.
obama is a better candidate? ROFLMAO!!!! Wow losing the popular vote and if the he and the DNC wouldn’t have disenfranchised MI & FL and stole the election he would have lost the delegate lead. For the pundits and party bosses pick he was getting his ass kicked since February, you know when the media tappered down there gushing over him.
Thanks for this great piece, Bud. Obama is going to be finished after the Repubs run the ads of Obama swiftboating himself. Those battleground states he thinks he can win - NOT! He is easily recognizable as un-American. and Michelle, she’s a raving lunatic. Should be easy as pie.
And where are the DSs right now? Should they not be taking historical hints? Should they not be unbiased? History repeats itself. Have they never heard this before?
Oops I forgot, the SDs were threatened with castration. Nuts!
Jesse the Mohel Jackson for President.
It’s time for the Super Delegates to show me why I should stay a democrat.
Make my day!
You backed the wrong horse and have revealed to all your cowardly ways
Nominate Hillary or lose me forever!!!
There should be a list circulating, of all the Super-Duper delegates representing states won by Hillary.
Well Lois Capps won’t switch. She lives with her daughter who is married to one of bo’s advisors and her daughter works for Axelrod.
I apologize. Capps used to be normal.
yep; i live in SD (which went for hillary by 10+ points) but almost all our superdelegates are voting for obama. i’ll be sure to vote against the elected ones when i’m voting against obama.
If the Democrats nominate Obama then I will vote straight Republican. I won’t tolerate this type of disgrace.
I agree with this strategy. What have Democrats done for us lately? Nothing. I would only vote for down ticket dems who supported Hillary, but I’m in Mass. so I have lots of down ticket dems to vote AGAINST.
This is the only strategy that will work. The Democratic Party needs to be brought to its knees (and I don’t mean while servicing Obama). You don’t have to vote Republican - vote for your preferred candidates on Liberal or any other applicable party lines.
“Have you noticed he’s already spending tons on airtime”
McCain is outspending Obama 3-1 on TV and he STILL can’t get a lead. Not even in super red North Dakota.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/mccain_adviser_were_outspendin.php
BTW, why aren’t there any pro McCain posts on this site? Don’t you want to know who you’re voting for? He can tell us more about how the economy is great, we’re all just crazy for not seeing it.
Lrts see what Backtrack thought in April 2004 shall we:
APRIL 5 2004
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kFrFIFizkU&eurl=http://obamawtf.blogspot.com/2008/07/obama-war-position-3-troops-out-is.html
FISA + Obama = umm’s spying paradise
Read this and you’ll get it.
http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Summer08/BushThirdTerm.html
Obama should be ahead by 20 points
Why isn’t ahead by more in this change year.
We all know why!
Obama is a coward!
What are you going to do now that the Iraq war has been won.
McCain is the hero that saved America from retreat and defeat.
Obama,
You might as well sit on your hands.
it’s only going to get worse for you from here.
If you look at the polls you can see that Obama is staying at the same level and McCain is starting to gain ground against Obama. This will not happen fast. The intention of any campaign is to take over the lead slowly so that the opponent can’t react in time. When the Obama team realizes that they are loosing by large margins it will be to late. I won’t be surprised if Obama will loose NJ and NY.
Exactly. By my estimates it only takes 2-3 weeks to turn public opinion around before it hits the saturation point. If the GOP/McCain plays it on simmer until the convention and then unleash the crap cannon in early October.
Attack, attack, attack, make Obama play the defensive, and all that media oxygen gets sucked up answering the “flip flop” charges instead of taking control of the agenda.
Patience, all my little grasshoppers…
I agree. If McCain attacks now, he loses his ammunition. He’s saving it all for the final round. It’ll be breathtaking.
I wish someone would post the video of the state of the union address where bush talks about the success of the surge.
Hillary got up and clapped our troops and America’s victories.
Obama sat there with Kennedy wishing for defeat and retreat.
That moment said it all for me.
Polls are meaningless now anyway. The general public pays scant attention to political news in the middle of summer. The big guns would be wasted if used at this time.
The Repubs are used to winning. They have much more experience at it.
Funny, I guess experience matters!
You do not mean “loose.”
And how about some actual evidence based on poll averages, you know, the way real political analysts do it?
You are pathetic with these polls
Start absorbing more than what daily tracking polls give you.
It’s not healthy to live by polls alone.
A great political scientist would look outside the box at voter trends and listen to what people are saying.
You’re not a good listener and I’m sure you have been told that often.
What I see from you believe is an attempt to hide behind the polls which at this moment should show obama up 20 points.
He’s not!!
So maybe you should figure out why.
McCain is creeping up, for sure, in NJ, MO, FL.
Interesting.
Anna, you’ve an uncanny gift for reading polls. Of everyone who comments on this site, I tend to pay attention when you talk polls.
i guarantee you the alleged “tie” in ND right now is a load of crap. i live in SD, which yes, is redder than ND, but there is no way in heck Obama is going to win ND. anybody who believes these polls is a fool.
The McCaininsts are the silent majority.
They just come out on 11/4th and vote-no speeches, no Access Hollywood, no big stadium stagings need apply.
The real deal gets elected-Period.
doing everything I can to see that nobama does not take Missouri. Bad enough that mccaskill sold out Hillary for $4200 from barky. She went on my crap list the day she endorsed him.
Wrote a column in the local paper pointing out all barky’s lies. Intend to write more if editor will let me.
Intend to run ads against barky, in other papers, after the convention if I need to.
barky will not get Missouri if there is anything I can do to stop him.
I see McCaskill voted the same as Obama on the FISA Bill too, they sure had lots of DEMS selling out on that vote
Awesome!!! BOOYAH!!!
No MO for BHO-
DEEEEnied!!!!
Missouri should demand that Obama show them that he has the qualifications/accomplishments before voting for him.
“Frothy eloquence neither satisfies nor convinces me, I’m from Missouri you’ve got to show me.”
I guess you couldn’t stop him from winning the Missouri primary.
yeah, it was an open primary, so who knows who was voting in it, and how many of them will actually vote vote for the dem in november. clinton was the *democratic* choice.
Just donated $50.00 to Hillary . I know Obama will take the credit for it. Hillary is by far the best person for the job.
I just donated, too! $50. And I had wanted the signature brown t-shirt with her name in aqua, so I ordered that, too. Can’t afford any of this, but Hillary’s my girl and I will not have her beholden to some a##hole - we have all been there, no way I will let that happen to her, or us.
Everyone, donate to pay down Hillary’s debt! Even just $5 would help. This will help strengthen her ability to be on the ballot in Denver!
Me too! What’s another $50 at this point.