The US Presidential Race in Montana
By Charles Lemos on August 4, 2008 at 11:00 PM in Barack Obama, John McCain, Montana
It’s pretty clear that this has been a bad week for Barack Obama, the question is why? I am not really sure quite why, other than the obvious in my mind, but I am the first to admit most Americans do not yet see the danger that I see in Barack Obama.
The US Presidential race this year is certainly topsy turvy with the number of battleground states higher this time around. In part that’s due to the erosion of the Republican brand. A year ago, most seasoned observers felt any Democrat would coast to the White House but that was before that any Democrat was Barack Obama. If George W. Bush destroyed the GOP, look no further than Barack Obama for the erosion in the Democratic Party’s decline.
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he has pulled even with Barack Obama. The bad news for John McCain in Montana is that he is only even with Barack Obama in a state that George W. Bush carried by 20 or more points both times.
Montana last went for a Democrat in 1992 in the three way race of that year and before that in 1964. Two years ago, Montana elected Jon Tester, a Democrat, to the US Senate and it currently has very popular Democratic Governor in Brian Schweitzer.
From Rasmussen Reports:
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he’s gained six points on Barack Obama over the past month. The bad news is that the race is essentially even in a state that George W. Bush won by 20-percentage points in 2004 and by 24 points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana’s three Electoral College votes, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot picking up 14%.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote in Montana while Obama earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s all tied up at 47%.
A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.
McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, up a point over the past month. For Obama, 53% now have a favorable view, down four points.
Those figures include 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 31% who think that highly of Obama. At the other end of the spectrum, just 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain but 29% hold such a view of Obama.
The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.
Obama is preferred by 86% of Democrats and McCain by 80% of Republicans. The two men are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. One interesting note in the data is that five percent of Republicans say they’d prefer some other candidate while only one percent of Democrats feel that way. Among unaffiliated voters, five percent prefer a third option over either McCain or Obama.
Adding to McCain’s challenge in this historically red state is the fact that Montana’s very popular Democratic Governor is cruising to victory in his re-election bid.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Montana voters say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win in November. Just nine percent think they’re trying to help McCain. These perceptions are shared by voters throughout the nation.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 64.8 % chance of winning Montana this November. At the time this poll was released, Montana is listed as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, Obama has been enjoying a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for several weeks.
I still think it is too early to focus on national polling numbers and to be frank the US presidential race is not one race but 51 separates races (actually a few more since both Nebraska and Maine elected their electors by Congressional district). In this regard, I believe it more insightful to focus on each race in each state than the overall popular vote. McCain can win the election and lose the popular vote.
From my blog, By The Fault.
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I believe Obama’s political rally on foreign soil was the beginning of the end for his “bounce”. Add to that his non-visit of the troops in germany, as well as his cavorting around the middle-east and Europe pretending to be CIC. Americans don’t like presidential candidates pandering to Europe.
Agreed. Blowing off that visit to the wounded troops was a HUGE strategic mistake.
I agree Sandy K. The big speech in Germany was the beginning of the end for Obama. Not visiting the troops was the biggest mistake.
I have spoken to many die hard Republicans and they are salivating.
His world tour may have sung well in Europe and some of the large cities in the states, however middle America does not buy it.
Every one of these Republicans smile a Chesser Cat Grin and then simply state ‘68.
Larry, count on this
the more America gets to know the Precious, the less they are going to like him
divided government in the absence of a qualified and experienced candidate is THIS democracy’s answer
P.U.M.A
Don’t forget the flip-flopping …. I mean Obama is like fish out of water….
As goes Montana?
Nothing.
I still hold my opinion that Obama will make many more mistakes because he can’t shut up.
Then there will be the debates - only three of them. Likely to be three losses for Obama.
There are new books about Obama.
He is unable to stick to a position on any policy issue.
People are getting tired of hearing him all the time on TV.
The Kool Aid is losing its flavor.
The list is very long. Time is not his friend.
The old warrior is marching along slowly but surely. He knows what Hillary knows: just don’t quit. He has excellent chances.
Can I speak Southern here for a minute? Most of us gun-totin’, bible clingin’ low-information folks just don’t care for a feller who gets too big fer his britches, even if we liked him alright to start out with. We use this expression to refer to anybody who thinks they are a lot more wonderful and important than they really are. We also tend to say that we would like to buy such a person for what they’re worth, and sell them for what they THINK they’re worth. This is not the same as “uppity”. That word is used to refer to somebody who looks down their nose at other people, and thinks they’re better than they are(or smarter, or more enlightened, etc., etc.) It doesn’t have anything to do with color. In fact, by my reckoning, about 70% of the people on dKos would qualify. And I don’t have any idea what race or gender most of them are.
Around here (WV), the saying is ‘You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken sh*t’.
God forbid we should elect someone is among the smartest and most capable among us for the highest office in the land. No, we’d definitely be better off electing Joe Sixpack from the bar down the street…he may not know jack about the issues or what to do about them, but at least he’s “one of us”.
Around here we DID vote for the smartest and most capable among us -
Hillary.
See, Mr. Too Big for His Britches was only among us two times, and decided our Joe Six Packs could smell a fraud a mile off.
I guess ultimately the majority of American voters will not be swinging as far to the left as previously thought. Most Americans are feeling comfortable with John McCain in the center. And, once prospective voters take the time to learn about Mr. Barack Obama, and all there is to dis-like about him, they’ll no doubt cast their vote with McCain as well.
The Democrats want to make sure Americans’ disgust with the current administration stays hot; that’s why they don’t want to vote on offshore drilling — it’ll kill $4.85 per gallon gas. The Dems want us to stay mad at Bush; they want us to remain angry at the high cost of gas.
Meanwhile, the Dems and the media are, from what I just heard, spending and giving their time and ink away to Obama; with absolutely no result whatsoever.
Here’s the Democrats problem. Check out who Obama really is and it’ll scare you, too. That’s why Obama’s popularity has been falling, and falling, …
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=32
SUSA has McCain+5 in FL today. This despite Obama throwing millions at the state in ads AFTER the primary.
Obama is rumored to favor Bayh as a VP pick which should give him IN.
But if McCain picks Rep. Cantor of VA for his VP, then Obama’s tiny lead in VA most probably will disappear.
According to Real Clear politics, Obama is dumping alot of money into red states that McCain still enjoys easy leads in without spending a dime.
The Obama campaign I think will go down in history as the most expensive per-vote campaign ever. Can’t imagine why his numbers seem to be going down every day…
McCain should pick Romeny, not a congressman with absolutely zero name recognition. I was born in Virginia and lived there for ovr 30 years. Trust me on this: When it gets down to nut-cuttin’ time, Virginia will not vote for an ultra-liberal black man over a bona fide war hero. Ain’t happenin’.
No, please God, not Romney. I loathe Plastic Man. I’ll have to stay home in November. Voting for McCain will be bad enough. I hope he picks a woman to ease the pain of voting republican.
I’m also a Virginia native and resident
I didn’t even know who Cantor was really until I heard him mentioned as a possible veep. Apparently, unlike Romney, Cantor is a more traditional republican which could help McCain’s appeal with his base. He has also been quite the fund raiser. He is in his late 40’s I think, has a young family, is known as being squeaky clean (something I read), and he is Jewish.
Cantor would be a VERY interesting choice and certainly add a whole new dynamic to this race.
But I agree that even without Cantor, McCain should ultimately carry VA.
I don’t know what Bayh will “buy” him. He strikes me as a bit vanilla.
Slow and steady wins the race and McCain is landing some great punches against Obama without even half trying.
Don’t forget, the Republican machine will not even start in earnest til after Labor Day — they want to make sure the SDs don’t miraculously wake up and do the smart thing at the Convention, throw Obama under the bus and nominate Hillary.
“SUSA has McCain+5 in FL today”
Maybe they’re annoyed at the hypocrtical way he’s calling for FL and MI delegates to be counted 100% now that he’s the only choice, whereas back when they still had a chance to pick Hillary he didn’t want to count them.
My 15 year old daughter came home from her swim practice the other day and said one of the kids had called somebody a “hypocritter” and she wanted to know what it meant. I had never heard of it, but assuming it is something you would call a hypocrite, I think it’s what I’ll start calling Obama. Obama the hypocritter.
This time of year Florida is a bit hard to poll because the “snow birds” are gone for the summer. They usually start returning around October. Some vote in their second state and some vote here. Most seem to vote Rep.
Real Democrats put this out:
Here’s what we’re up against. These are articles from Ohio, Michigan and Missouri.Obama is putting an unprecedented number of people on the ground—even in states in which he is at a significant statistical disadvantage. McCain is focusing almost exclusively on television ads.
“Obama’s Paid Staff Dwarfing McCain’s”
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/07/20/obamas_paid_staff_dwarfing_mccains/?page=full
“Ohio Daily Blog: More on Obama Campaign Coordination
http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/content/more-obama/odp-campaign-coordination
“Obama’s Michigan Campaign Will be 2x the Size of Kerry’s
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/obamas_michigan_campaign_will.php
“Obama Flooding Missouri with 150 Paid Staffers”
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/12859
BTW: BO made $5 million from his birthday celebration last night in Boston. $28,500 per couple. More “small donors” no doubt.
John McCain keep up the good work and keep working!
Why Obambi’s numbers are going down?
Maybe because most people don’t want a racist, anti-american, flip flopping liar as President of the USA,
Whose friends are anti american,terrorist, racist, and slimy criminals.
e.
http://www.slate.com/id/2196756/?from=rss#
This is getting way too nuts for me. By the end of this campaign every word in the English language will be deemed racist and we’ll have to speak Swahili. Maybe that’s what BHO meant when he mentioned second language.
Oh good grief. Next the word ‘hello’ will be a code word for racism. BTW is was Obama that kept referring to himself as the ’skinny black kid with the funny name’. I watched him say it more than once. Funny Slate didn’t mention that.
That’s “it was”.
Maybe we can just say he’s built like Abe Lincoln. That would sound presidential.
I recently spent over a week in Mt with family members who also happen to live and vote in Mt.
Here are a few points.
1. They are not fond of Bill (Red roots)
2. They are back lashing against all Republicans the last few years.
3. There has been an influx of California folks as residents.
4. They do not pay attention to what is really going on… they voted for Obama based on BS… and CDS…
When I told them a few of the easy reasons why I will not vote vote for Obama… (Alice Palmer, present votes, 6 times making a voting mistake… These issues are even before he was a US Senator!!)they were shocked about what I had to say.
Ugh… yes, these family members all would make Pelosi and Dean proud with their level of info… educated and wealthy and all of that… heh.
Yes, when I made GOTV phone calls to Oregon, I was surprised those who were anti-Clinton did not know that Obama had voted for the Bush/Cheney Oil Bill that would directly affect them adversely. While she voted against it.
The truth is not always important apparently. They fall under the same category as the misguided folks who voted, and kept voting for, Bush.
You see where that got us.
The GOTV calling to the red states often called for deviation from the script. Pro-Choice was often brought up as the sole issue for their decision to remain Republican. The voters knew the down side of their party better than I did, they also stuck to their guns and graphically discussed abortion and their desire to vote for a pro-life candidate.
Many of them, surprisingly, had nice things to say about Hillary though. Women often brought up her work for families and her long commitment to health and child care issues.
When they get to know ob a little bit better than what the MSM is they will flock to Mac and throw money at him to win.
Too early to tell anyway.
Ob is a roman candle, the Reps will strike the match after Denver. There will be spectacular fireworks with a prime view from those red states!
Montanans get filtered news…unless they use the internet. June 3rd we were met with the false report of Senator Clinton being out of the race, so many voters didn’t go to the polls. Now our news looks like this article from the Great Falls Tribune:
http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008808030301
There seems to be a backlashing against Democrats this year as I have received my first emails pleading for contributions for state Democratic candidates.
When I ask the Kool aid drinkers I know what they think about Bambi’s flip flops on everything from FISA to off-shore oil drilling they simply dismiss it and tell me he has to say those things.
What I am afraid of is that Barky’s monumental effort to register young and AA voters will offset those of us who won’t ever vote for him and Donkey Brazile will end up being right–that they don’t need us anymore.
I’ll never forgive the Democratic Party after what’s happened this year. And I will vote for McCain with the hope that Hillary will run and win in 2012.
This past weekend my son, a college student, had 2 other friends over that are college students.
My son, is not registered to vote yet, but will eventually,(yeah) and will vote for McCain.
His friend, didn’t say anything about who he’s voting for but listened intently when I spoke about what O is doing.
Another friend, female, hispanic, said probably O, but she needs to relearn who O is and she’s just too busy now living her life to worry about the election. She’ll get to it.
If this is a fair sample of other college students, we need to freshen their memories, closer to election time with what is going on. They are not stupid, it’s just not that important to them.
i’ll be interested to hear if he’s gonna vote his conscience; or, because you tell him to? something about purse strings seems to saturate your diatribe…
and i pray you’re NOT a teacher, “freshening” needed, or not. if you want that, i’m afraid you’re going to have clean out the stench that permeates all of america, at this very moment.
I was born and raised in Montana. I was really puzzled by the exit polls after the Montana primary that said O won by a ‘large’ margin in the “voters who earn over $75,000/year” category. Whie I was in Montana there were VERY FEW people in the state making over $75,000/year.
A “large influx of Californians” would explain both the high income bracket and the votes for O. I’d be willing to bet very few REAL native Montanans support him.
As an aside, two of my very favorite bumper stickers used to be common in Montana:
“Don’t Californicate Montana”
and
“Welcome to Montana - now get the fuck out.”
Those stats had to have been collected in the Kalispell/Whitefish area…which is Californicated Montana. Of course, that also goes for the Bozeman part of Montana. This REAL Montanan wouldn’t vote for the 0…I have standards.
I’m stuck on the $75,000/year…I’ve taught 23 years and earn ~$38,000/year…$75,000 sounds more like a Montana Republican.
Anyone feel like it’s the calm before the storm right now? As Barky’s slight lead over McCain turns into a slight trailing, the bots are eerily quiet but starting to get very very angry (see MyDD.)
Maybe it’s that long article on O either being narcissistic or having full-blown Narcissistic Personality Disorder. I cannot picture how this will all end.
Oh well, the rapper AA’s and Gaza/Hamas blogger/supporters do tend to get quiet when Barky has no chance in hell. They are such a minority that even stealing the GE with made up registrations won’t help. Donkey Bratzille’s crooked startegy is failing. Her candidate is about as popular with American voters as her rat’s nest wig is. Get off the stage Bratzille. You are a loser. You lost the election for Gore and Frauduhbama is next.
WE DO NOT WANT A FRAUD FOR A PRESIDENT. nobama! ever!
In those moments of greatest disgust and depression, I see no good outcome this year for anyone. If Obama loses by a wide margin, there will be temper tantrums followed by a withdrawal of his supporters. If he loses by a small margin, 2004 will be seen as a picnic in the park. Every vote will be challenged, voters harrassed and threatened. I don’t think the Court will involve themselves a second time so it will be up to the campaigns and parties to resolve. When I am really feeling negative, I foresee the National Guard being called out to suppress riots. Makes me just want to sit down and have a good cry once in a while.
The “influx of Califorians into Oregon” Explains the vote here. Long time Oregonians and natives did not vote for Obama.
Don’t Californicate Oregon.
Thanks for visiting, now go back home. (the sign used to read the the border)
When is the news going to report the truth?
The percentage of Democrats who’d prefer some other candidate is approx 75%. Come on.
Breaking News momentarily at http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/
All that is left to do is buy some popcorn and watch Obama implode.
Undeniable evidence. This firecracker is about to get lit!!!
“I still think it is too early to focus on national polling numbers and to be frank the US presidential race is not one race but 51 separates races (actually a few more since both Nebraska and Maine elected their electors by Congressional district).”
Well, given the fact that neither Nebraska nor Maine have EVER split their electoral votes since they opted for this system (something which only happened within the last 50 years, IMS), and both states have so few electoral votes, there’s not really much to worry about.
The way that the Congressional District apportionment system works is that the winner of each separate district receives one electoral vote for the district. Whoever receives the largest number of votes STATEWIDE receives the two Electoral Votes provided from the Senate representation. Let me use Nebraska as the example (it has 5 EVs–3 from its Congressional Districts and 2 from its Senate Representation). We’ll say, for the sake of simplicity, that Nebraska will have 800,000 voters (in 2004, final result showed more than 778,000 people voted). While Congressional Districts are supposed to be equal in size, reality tends to prevent an absolutely equal number for each district. For this example, CD-1 will have 275,000 voters, CD-2 will have 265,000 and CD-3 will have 260,000. In CD-1, Candidate A gets 195,000 votes, Candidate B gets 78,000 (the remaining 2000 are split among other parties). In CD-2, Candidate A gets 78,000 and Candidate B gets 185,000 (the remaining 2000 are again split). In CD-3, Candidate A gets 127,000 and Candidate B gets 130,000 (the remaining 3,000 are split). Now, the Statewide total results show that Candidate A has 400,000 votes and Candidate B has 393,000 (with 7000 votes for 3rd parties). Under the state’s electoral division plan, Candidate A gets 1 EV from his CD win and 2 EVs from his statewide win, and Candidate B gets 2 EVs from his CD wins but since he didn’t win the state, he gets no EVs from there. Candidate A thereby puts Nebraska in his party’s column with 3 EVs, even though he lost 2/3 of the state.
Using the same base figures, let’s alter some of the results (but I’ll leave the 3rd party votes at the same levels i all 3 districts). All three districts have proverbial blowouts. In, CD-1, Candidate A gets 240,000 votes, and Candidate B only gets 33,000. In CD-2, Candidate A only gets 33,000 votes and Candidate B gets 240,000. In CD-3, Candidate A gets 200,000 votes and Candidate B gets 57,000. The final results show Candidate A has 473,000 votes and Candidate B has 330,000 votes. The EV split: 4 to Candidate A (2 districts plus the Statewide) and 1 to Candidate B (for his 1 district win).
Historically, however, this has never happened in Nebraska or Maine (Maine’s even more intriguing since it is entirely possible for its 4 EVs to be split evenly–it would likely involve some heavy voting for 3rd parties in one of the districts), and while I’m not sure how Nebraska’s congressional district lines are drawn, I doubt that either state’s EVs are going to be split this year either.
see, more anti-Clinton bias. read how the article credits Ross Perot for Clinton winning Montana, even tho exit polls showed the anti-NAFTA candidate taking equally. The Perot-myth, which has been perpetuated by the media is in part why Obama won: he and has trash denied Hillary’s electability by falsely citing Perot as why Bill won. This needs to stop already. There is no data which backs up that ridiculous assertion
Oh, dear. I’m off topic and I haven’t even read your above posts, but i have to post anyway. Please, forgive me.
But I’ve been listening to an “oldies” radio station, sigh (can that really be my music?). Anyway, McCain is running the funniest ad to the song: “Charlie (was it Brown?). The song starts out with the usual, you remember, at least some of you do, about smelling smoke in the auditorium.
It’s about the media’s obsession with Obama and McCain’s attempt to get some media attention for himself. Well, it’s a hoot!
Hang in there, PUMAs. Between us, and McCain’s sense of humor, we may prevail yet.
Go Pumas.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/image/68a585d3752ead2439_n71kmvn2k.jpg/@mx_150@my_150
I have to wonder , is it incest if one has sexual intercourse with ones 1/2 sister?
I also have to wonder, was Obambi’s 1/2 sister given anything in return for lending Obambi her certificate of live birth, so FAKES could be made and given to KOS and put on Obambi’s smear web page as Obambi’s own FAKE certificate of live birth?
I think I need to puke!
PS. I heard many years back Obambi and his 1/2 sister were, lets say, very very very touchy feely kissy, while at a blues concert, I have to wonder if anybody has pics of that concert, it might be cool to find Waldo + 1/2Jane in that crowd all over each other.
I say let’s not go there with no proof. It’s enough to use technical expertise to debunk the birth certificate. Specious arguments such as this makes any non-Obama supporter look petty and foolish at least.
There’s no need to defame Obama’s sister to make this point.
Trust me, an Obama supporter will pick up a comment such as this and cry racism and misogyny. Without proof, they’d be right.
Actually Dave, in ancient societies (Egypt, Sumer, Babylon, etc.) it was mandatory for the king to wed his half sister in order to continue the royal lineage. In that case, it was same father, different mothers, though.
Off the topic, TexasDarlin has a new post where Techdude reveals the name on the original COLB that the Messiah’s forgers used as a basis to create his own fake COLB.
David Axelgrease and Oblama are questioning your intelligence. If you are an Independent please don’t respond. I only want to hear from Democrats.
CharlesLemos:
Thank you for the informative post on Montana.
There has been a buzz for a while about polls and people being “afraid” (?) to tell a live pollster that they will not vote Obama ( wonder why? well… afraid of being labeled racist might have to do with it ).
This was to explain some of the differences between polls and actual vote furing the primaries.
Anyway, I’m starting to think this might be true ( and NOT b/c people are racist but b/c Obama has successfully managed to label his non-followers as such). There was an interesting article yesterday from Juan Williams on this and race in general:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121781107977608809.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
I have been just returned home after driving through the Western Montana, and I can say I have not seen a single ‘0′ sign. There are large sparkly Ron Paul signs, smaller McCain signs, and many Hillary signs (most in windows belonging to my relatives). There are a few delusional people who like the attention given to them by the selected. McCain is improving in the polls without coming to the state…just think what would happen if he did come to Montana!
I personally think that regular people just need to know it’s OK to be against O. That doesn’t make one racist.
Montanta will go red.
ummm…are you all so frightened your cash cow doesn’t come in 1st this year? ya just gotta go to flamin’ on the competition with such poorly thought out, and just-plain mean (and wrong) tactics, in (hope) you retain the standard of living (theft) you have become accustomed to; just because of the dumb luck of the last few years? i love mankind; yet, this onerous and morally bankrupt policy of you all; is gonna stick montana back under the soul (sic) of your bubble-gummed Gucci loafers / Crocs shoes, and the state’s place in line. “times, they are a changin’”
i’ll lay 2 to 1 blue squeaks out a win.
i was too nice, above; the kind of *cough* “thinking” on this site, deserves only dog s**t being stuck to the souls (sic) of their pseudo-cowboy/cahboy feet; not just chewing gum.
montana could be a great state…just NOT with the grabbers and “gimmee-gimmeess”.
we’re problably the only state run by republocrats.
i, myself, intend to see the egregrious “legislation” and/or *gag* “law” of the past 20 yrs. makes it out of this state, and to a Supreme Court of real jurisprudience.
apologies for such harsh comments. if you are a real montanan, you’ll understand my sentiments regarding the overtaking of our lovely state by outsiders, with only their interests in mind. our legislature is a joke.