Where’s The Magic Bump In Polls Obama?
By NancyA on August 7, 2008 at 5:59 PM in Barack Obama, Current Affairs, John McCain, Obama
Obama stalls in public polling and ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer asked this question, “If everything is so good for Barack Obama, why isn’t everything so good for Barack Obama?”
In a year when Bush’s approval rating is very low, the Democratic challenger, Barack Obama, can’t break the 50% mark in polls. He never received the “big bounce” post Hillary Clinton’s campaign suspension. More on that:
That gap between expectations and reality comes as Democrats enjoy the most favorable political winds since at least 1976. At least eight in ten Americans believe the nation is on the wrong track. The Republican president is historically unpopular. From stunning Democratic gains in party registration to the high levels of economic anxiety, Obama should have a healthy lead by almost every measure. Yet, in poll after poll, Obama conspicuously fails to cross the 50 percent threshold.
One of the things not mentioned is that Congress’ approval rating has gone down the toilet under the leadership of Pelosi and Reid. The Democratic-led Congress is a disappointment to the American people. Their rating has fallen below Bush’s approval rating, a dismal 14%.This is how Democrats and Republicans feel about Congress:
The most recent decline comes almost exclusively from Democrats, whose approval of Congress fell from 23% in June to 11% in July, while independents’ and Republicans’ views of Congress did not change much. As a result, Republicans are now slightly more likely than Democrats to approve of the job the Democratic-controlled Congress is doing (19% vs. 11%).
(And Congress is still laughable!)
Gallup’s director Frank Newport said this,
“What’s remarkable this summer is the stability of this race,”
“In a broad sense, it is similar to previous elections.”
(I am glad something is stable, Obama seems to flip flop everyday….)
When the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections are compared the following comparisons are drawn.
In Gallup’s last national poll prior to the 2004 party conventions, for example, John F. Kerry led President Bush 47 percent to 43 percent. In 2000, also in Gallup’s last national poll prior to the party conventions, Bush led former Vice President Al Gore 46 percent to 41 percent.
And Gallup has this to say about demographics in the race.
Three demographic groups have generally kept Obama ahead in the past two months: African-Americans, youth and Hispanics. But a lead based on those groups is a tenuous one. The youth vote, notorious for not meeting expectations, must turn out in significantly higher numbers than in past elections. Obama must continue to win the black vote nearly unanimously and still turn out new African-American voters. McCain must continue to underperform with Hispanics by about 10 percentage points compared to Bush in the summer of 2004.
(What’s the matter Obama can’t count on those college kids? And remember your best friend Donna Brazille told the true Democratic base to stay home!)
The real reason Obama has failed to get above the 50% mark is his inability to increase his support in key demographic groups. The Gallup report has something to say about it:
If there is a primary explanation as to why the race has remained close this summer, it is that Obama has failed to make gains overall with white voters, who still cast about three in four ballots on Election Day. (Are you starting to be sorry you called people in Pennsylvania bitter yet?)
As Gore did in 2000, Obama nearly splits white women and loses white men by a large margin, according to an aggregate of polling in June and July 2008 and polling in 2000 by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.
Depending upon the week in June or July, by Gallup’s measure, Obama has roughly fluctuated between splitting or, at worst, trailing by about 5 percentage points with white women. In that same period, Obama has won only between 34 percent and 37 percent of white men.
In general — and with men in particular — Pew’s data shows that Obama’s gains with young whites compared to Gore in 2000 are offset by a weakness with older whites.
Obama also seems to have hit a ceiling with Hispanics. Latino support fluctuates between 57 percent, by the latest weekly measure, to 68 percent the week before — roughly the margin of Hispanic support that has marked the entire summer, by Gallup’s measure.
(Is your head hurting yet, Obama?)
What all this suggests is a general election that is much tighter than many analysts predicted and defined by far more stubborn levels of support.
As it stands, on Aug. 3 the RealClearPolitics average of national polling had 46.6 percent of the public supporting Obama, putting him narrowly ahead of McCain. Exactly two months earlier, on June 3, that same average had Obama at the exact same level of support — 46.6 percent.
So sorry Obama. There will be no”bounce” this year in the polls. The Democratic-led Congress isn’t getting it either.
The poll numbers will only go down after the convention. Can’t wait until the real attack ads begin.
Obama will never get the “big bounce” he’s been waiting for just like he was never able to seal the deal without the help of the DNC disenfranchising voters and stealing delegates.
you got that right
True, the poll numbers will tank for Obama because most of the polling companies are in the tank for him now - that is, until the Dem. convention, when Clinton will buried for good, Wall Street hopes.
Obama’s massive support from Republicans in the primaries vanishes in the November election, another plain fact the Dem. Party is ignoring. If only the superdelegates and delegates would face reality and the melting ice caps, then relaize that Clinton is the only thing separating us now from total calamity. For more on the real Obama and his backers:
http://www.thecityedition.com/Pages/Archive/Summer08/BushThirdTerm.html
They have created their own Reality Distortion Field where they are in complete denial of the fact that their candidate is seriously flawed and will be ripped to shreds by the GOP attack machine once the Messiah is officially crowned by idiots running the Democratic Party.
I think the part that should scare you all the most, is that I had understood that DNC leaders *don’t care* if obama wins or loses, they assumed he would be the one to bring in more seats in Congress, and insure their current positions…not Hillary.
They’re crooks, plain and simple.
PUMA!
I heard that too. They don’t count on that the old, bitter, etc. women do vote down ballot - as they see fit.
The convention will give Obama a very nice bounce, especially with BOTH Bill and Hillary Clinton speaking in support of him.
Just as long as they don’t wear the sheets uh Deb? Try to keep the racism in check Bill. I know they wont but it would be awesome if both Clintons walk out and start telling people to f-off.
Debbie — you mean that speech in front of 76,000 at the football stadium? Hopey Changey speaks in front of a large crowd–will he be giving those in attendance sausages and Beer as he did in Berlin — or just pay for a Rock Concert to load of the stadium — so it looks like all those people came just to see him. Everything about him is manufactured.
you keep thinking that. i note you give the clintons credit for obama’s so called bounce. as the one he should already have this in the bag. i don’t see that.
Oh, Debbie. Bobo’s missing bounce has a name: PUMA. But go ahead, fantasize all you want, this is one bounce that doesn’t come back.
Oh Debbie - I see you agree that it will take CLINTONS to give him the bounce that Obama has been totally unable to garner for himself in well over 2 months…even with his Obamaia World Tour. So, in the end, if it’s going to take a Clinton to get the job done, why don’t we just ELECT a CLINTON TO GET THE JOB DONE!!!!
and cut out the little man… yeah yeah, that’s the ticket
yes they couldn’t beat her they had to rob her and hijack the party.
http://londonamerican01.blogspot.com/2008/08/ouch.html
republicans rub their hands with glee after the damage has been done. help donna keep her word. and just say no to anything less than an open convention.
Donna Brazile on ABC News tonight - ugh!
Assures the public ALL Dems will unite at the convention - but as of today - still no specific plan to “recognize” Hillary’s 18,000,000 supporters.
Oh wait - the primary was only historic for a Black man.
And that is why they will lose by a landslide in November. I just don’t understand why they don’t get it. I guess they think if they hide their heads in the sand the problem will go away.
Hillary was the First Woman with the most votes, and they still don’t understand why we won’t vote for Obama.
I guess that is why I am really starting to like McCain, he wants our votes and is willing to work for them.
Based on WHAT Mamma Donna? She’s such a piece of work. Keep believing in your fantasy unity Donna. I can’t wait to see you lose ANOTHER election.
Donna Brazile on ABC News tonight - ugh!
Assures the public ALL Dems will unite at the convention - but as of today - still no specific plan to “recognize” Hillary’s 18,000,000 supporters.
Oh wait - the primary was only considered historic for a Black man.
I’m a DNC pledged delegate for Obama. Your recent PUMA PAC musings piqued my interest, if only because I do sort of have a metric on how big the PUMA people are as a movement. About a month ago I woke up and took a look at my e-mail and instead of seeing few new e-mails in the morning I saw more than three hundred.
PUMA released the e-mail addresses of the delegates to their supporters and asked them to e-mail us with a form letter. I’m sure you’ve seen the letter (if not, it’s pasted in below), but since I set up a filter to direct every e-mail with “PUMA” in it to a folder on my Outlook, I can tell you that about a month after their letter-writing campaign began (I don’t get many more these days), I received a total of 404 messages.
Given that their entire raison d’etre is getting delegates to vote otherwise, this makes me think the PUMA movement is actually quite small, even if it is quite good at getting press. PUMA will surely stage something at the convention, but if they can only get 404 people to send e-mails, I’m not sure how many they can get to fly to Denver and make an impressive scene.
Anecdotally, I would add that my interactions with the many Clinton delegates over Facebook and in person has been uniformly positive.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/how_big_is_puma_now.php
Hmmmm. Then why are you sweating it and commenting here????
commented to woman today about her hillary sticker on car…we got into a conversation and shes been a dem for 40 yrs (me 35) never voted repub!she will NEVER vote for obama.. she had never heard of puma but had been doing EVERYTHING puma has been doing…i told her you are one of the millions of invisible pumas and you dont even know it…obama is not going to be crammed down our throats…no deal jo jo
Actually, I think he was being gently dismissive. Not really sweating anything.
I just read, “Actually, blah blah blah,” because I don’t care whether he’s getting laid or not. I am going to vote for McCain in the fall, feel fairly confident the majority of Americans will, as well, since I’ve never been wrong about an election before. And I love this site, because I don’t have to suffer the usual crap being foisted off on the public about how Obama is anything but a crooked, sexist neophyte with bad friends and worse ideas.
…a crooked, sexist neophyte with bad friends and worse ideas.
You’ve hit the proverbial nail on the head.
aww Aravosis says ‘gently dismissive’, awww pat the little heads of ‘those people’, as Obummer refers to us, yes
those people, 18 million of the CORE DEMS who BOTHER to vote in the primaries, WE are the STRONGEST most STAUNCH party faithful the primary voters.
that seems to have escaped all your calculations Obummer talking heads….
WE, THE PEOPLE
you know, the voters, the actual DEMS, not imaginary crossover GOP that crossed over for a day to stop HRC..
Ahh it will be so sweet to watch your big plans crash and burn baby
BOOYAH!!!
It doesn’t matter how many we are. Think about a snowball rolling downhill and prepare yourself. This former dem of 32 years can’t wait until November.
PUMA
EXACTLY! What you lack in numbers you more than make up for in…
…well…
…er…
Hmmm. I’m gonna have to get back to you on that one.
How do you know there is a lack in numbers? The number of e-mails is not an indication of the numbers of members and supporters there are. If these people aren’t significant at all, then why are you here?
Did you ever see Monty Python and the Holy Grail? Think of the French guys at the castle and then you’ll know why folks who don’t agree with you like to post here sometimes.
debbie — so you’re saying your a silly idiot? Ok
You have to be pretty frightened, you nervous little sockpuppet, you.
Otherwise you wouldn’t be here, eagerly, desperately, and frantically posting what you think are clever, snarky retorts, vainly trying to depress those numbers you claim aren’t there.
Why are you HERE?
Why aren’t you dancing in the streets? Celebrating your “certain” victory?
What you are doing is ILLOGICAL, if Your Messiah is really on a roll, cruising to a win.
You should be getting carpal tunnel opening all that celebratory champagne, you know, for your “sure” victory….ya pudpulling troll!
Instead, you are HERE. Trolling and insulting.
Seems like an odd way to celebrate a sure “unity” win to me.
But it does seem logical if cognitive dissonance is scratching at your brain, and anger is rearing its ugly head.
If only those pesky PUMAs weren’t there, why, the Messiah would truly be The One!
Thus, your fear causes you to lash out at us–because Your Messiah isn’t bringing it.
Ya gotta blame someone. And since your Borg has decided that The Messiah is Perfection, why, you aren’t ALLOWED to blame or criticize him….even in the face of FISA flipflops, offshore drilling flipflops, Surge flipflops, Iraq War timeline flipflops, lobbying flipflops, public finance flipflops, anytime/anywhere debate flipflops…why, he’s got more flipflops than Payless Shoes in July!
Do you kick your dog when you have a bad day at school, or do you just beat up your little sister, steal her piggy bank, and use her savings to buy pot to kill that horrible, unremitting pain that will not abate, no matter how often you strike out at people telling you the uncomfortable truth?
Hmmmm?
You’d be laughable, only you’re…pathetic.
I do not understand anyone who has half of a brain voting for Obush. I mean he is an idiot. He wants to kiss women for their votes if he would even try to kiss me I would have to have rabie shots. Pledged delegate I bet you that they can’t read.
Delegates determine the nominee. They do not control the will of the voters.
These votes in November will be private. No caucuses here. No stealing of voter registration forms. No out of town lawyers showing up at polling places (unless that’s Obama’s plan). If that should happen I don’t think the voters want a 2008 version of 2000.
You might want to remember that.
Amen Candy
Obots can think whatever they desire to think. Obots don’t need PUMAs to tell them Obama’s poll numbers suck. And it will only get worse once the Republicans start piling on.
Not sure what you mean by “his poll numbers suck.” You guys have been claiming that he’s sinking for weeks, yet in every reputable electoral map calculator I can find, he is beating McCain handily, and this week he has pulled back into a lead in national head-to-heads as well.
I mean, I realize that being a PUMA does mean living inside a bubble of perpetual delusion about, oh, so many things: your own impact; McCain’s political abilities; Obama’s evilness; etc etc. But I would think you guys could at least look at basic poll numbers and see that Obama is winning. That’s not to say that he definitely will win in November, but objectively speaking, he is winning today. And all the demographic modeling indicates that he has many structural advantages heading into the fall. So when you talk about the huge landslide that is coming … where’s that coming from? Based on what? Your fantasies about the millions of Hillary voters that you like to think are deranged Obama-hating PUMAs? News flash: the vast majority of those 18 million are Democrats who voted for a great Democratic candidate (HRC) in the primary and will now vote for another great Democratic candidate — Barack Obama — in November.
sfH,
Though it is the case that he is still doing well on the electoral map, his numbers are declining in important demographics, which is a cause for concern for any Obama supporter.
As we both know: it is why you are a regular contributor here. You recognize what PUMA can mean for the election, which, as you’ve stated a number of times, you hope to counter by providing an alternate perspective to lurkers.
SM
In what demographic is Obama declining? Which ones? In what polls?
See Zogby’s poll released this week for details. You can find it by using that little box with the big ‘G’ next to it at the top of your computer screen, sweetie.
I don’t think there is any demographic right now in which he isn’t declining rapidly. It’s fun to watch.
In other words, you don’t have any specific evidence to offer because…well, there isn’t any.
debbie — Obama is declining in 9 out 14 trust issues. The flip flopper is flopping.
Um, yeah, I too would like to know in which demographic he’s declining. He declined across the board for a couple weeks in late July, no doubt, but he’s already headed back up.
But no, I do not think PUMA is relevant, and I’m under no illusions about changing the minds of the regular posters here; they are all McCain voters. Yes, I hope to provide a countervailing voice for lurkers here, but the lurkers aren’t PUMAs.
Just one story, picked at random:
A recent ABC News/Washington Post survey reveals the first nugget of alarming news for Team Obama. As Obamania reached its frenzied pinnacle in March, fully 66 percent of voters 18-29 told pollsters they were “certain” to cast ballots in November. By late July, that figure dropped by a whopping 20 percentage points, with less than half of the youth vote still vowing to go to the polls this fall.
A freshly minted Zogby poll that grabbed headlines by highlighting a dramatic McCain comeback in the overall data also features a fascinating youth vote tidbit: “McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.”
http://media.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NDk5Y2QxMmI4NmNiYmI0MjkxZjY2YTQ3N2MzYWQ4NmU=
dum dum dum dum DUM
bom bom bom bom
attack of the zombie Obots
attack of the zombie Trollbots…
Hey Gina
What are you, one of THOSE PEOPLE?
COUNTRY BEFORE PARTY ALWAYS
PUMAS,BUBBAS, AND THOSE PEOPLE RULE
Well, that’s all lies….but let’s pretend, to make you feel important and special, that it’s true.
The question that immediately comes to mind is this–WHY ARE YOU HERE, if your hero is winning handily?
Doesn’t make sense.
You should be celebrating, not acting like a needy, desperate, frightened and immature little dick who beats up people who are ‘losers’–that isn’t very “Unity-Hope-Change-Believe”-ish.
What, are all Obama supporters fucking morons who run around the internet crapping on what they claim are “fringe” groups?
That’s not change we can believe in…that’s being a childish asshole!
Naaah, that’s not it. There is a valid reason why you are here.
You are here, because you are AFRAID.
Gut-twisting, scrotum-shrivelling, cold sweat, shit-it’s’-all-going-to-hell-and-tanking, FRIGHTENED out of your one-track, KoolAid-addled mind.
And you should be.
The Ancient Mariner is going to rule the land for four years, and it’s your Messiah’s fucking fault. Own that, take the blame, and be afraid.
Your Messiah cheated his way to the nomination, he thought he could persuade the Democratic Party to suck it up and go along, he even tried to call them names (racist) like you’re doing right now, and half of them engaged their brains and said “Fuck NO. You did NOT earn it, Smiley Bullshitter! You’re a corporate crook with no meaningful experience and an inability to speak without a teleprompter. Just like the last asshole. We’ve already had eight years of an addictive personality egomaniac with self-esteem and “daddy” issues, and that was quite enough. Thanks anyway.”
So be VERY AFRAID, little pudpuller. Be very, very AFRAID.
Clinton Fan, I like your vim and vigor in regard to the BO fan you are lecturing. But, I must tell you, BO did not have to convince the Dem Party of anything.
With the successful arm twisting of SC Rep. Clyburn to change the SC primary to give AA’s an early voice in choosing the eventual nominee, the DNC it seems took BO under their wing from the beginning thinking he was their ticket to victory.
They tailor-made the primary schedule for O, frontloading the primary contests with not only SC but all the other states with high AA registrations as well. In addition to these sure victories, the grand scheme included focusing on winning the caucus states (mostly repub) and let Move-On.Org organize them ON-Line in addition to the millions of $ they would raise for him as they had done for Dean in 2004.
The 50-State strategy in its embryonic state was Howard Dean’s 2004 strategy that he didn’t get to use after his gleeful fit he staged following losing the very first contest, that I think he hoped would confuse people into thinking he actually won.
Later Dean would lobby hard for Chair of the DNC, convinced his strategy of winning all the caucuses to run the delegate count up was a winner and he would call it the “50-State Strategy”. He just needed a pliable candidate. Obviously that wasn’t Hillary who was running her own campaign.
While O is definitely an ego-maniac, he was and is clueless about how he has gotten to this point. It has been laid out for him. These were NOT his ideas. He didn’t have any serious opposition in any of the other campaigns in which he participated - how could he just innately know this stuff regardless of Harvard? He is way in over his head, and I think he is realizing that.
It is bound to be humiliating to go from last week being able to act like he was already the president to this week being knocked around like a yo yo.
If you are a public official then you know as much as anyone, that not everyone is active. I wonder how many (such as myslef), didn’t send you an email. How many people voted in your district? 404 people in your district sent you an email and you discount it as not being enough? The 404 was a representation not a total count–you should know this.
It is not so much how big PUMA is but how loud. These are Democrats you should not have to sweat over — these are party loyalists, volunteers who need not be pushed all the way to the polls to vote for the Democrat but they are doing this and that is what should alarm you. The middle America is already writing off Obama — they don’t even get defensive like the PUMAs and have no reservation voting for the repubs; they just say in few words they don’t trust your guy. PUMAs are the voice warning you guys about those guys.
Obama minions like you crack me up. Let me see you come back with some numbers on Nov. 5.
I’m not a PUMA, but I am a former Hillary supporter who will not vote for Obama. I haven’t emailed any SDs, because frankly, I don’t think it will do much good. IMO, the SDs have dug themselves into a hole (grave) they can’t get out of even if they wanted to.
intersting though that if there are only 404 PUMAs that over 200 of them have created anti-obama websites and blogs …
hmmm - count me 405!
That’s a lovely story, Joe Joe, but it doesn’t change the fact that Obama is a lousy candidate and he would be a disaster as a president. I’m not voting for him on that alone. The Clinton drama is just a sad spectacle for everyone involved.
I didn’t e-mail you,because I know you cannot communicate with cultmembers because of the brainwashing that has taken place. But just wait until November. All you dumbots will need to go to detox, because the Kool-aid fix is going to dry right up and you all with be having the obama DTs.
McCain 08!
Hillary 2012!
Are you a Surperdelegate?
MMMMMMMMMMMMMMM didn’t think so.
PUMA
Nobody I know is voting for Obama. So using your logic, No one is voting for Obama. Since you know if you don’t see it, it must not exist. What has the election process come to, you would think a delegate would need at least an inkling of intelligence. WOW
Well, I can tell you Joe, Joe, Joey that Tuesday, Puma sent 40,000 letters then repeated the effort Wednesday with another 40,000. Today’s mark was 50,000. And those are the true activists vs like-minded members who are joined at the hip and heart in their Obama opposition.
So, please. Continue to discount us. We’ll see you and all other Obama supporters in November, when the only number that really matters, counts.
You’re right in that November is the only number that ultimately counts. But you are wrong in that there are other numbers that count now in determining what the numbers will be. Go look up the number of field offices and volunteers that Obama has up and running in swing states and compare that to the number of field offices and volunteers that McCain has. The disparity is enormous and historic. You guys really do not understand what wins elections, which is why you will be so shocked in November, when we Democrats crush your asshole Republican scumbag like a freaking bug on the pavement. But that’s okay — you will still reap the benefits of a progressive Obama presidency like a national health care plan, withdrawal from Iraq, investment in alternative energy, etc, instead of suffering from insane McCain/GOP priorities like tax cuts for rich people and oil companies, pro-life Supreme Court Justices, endless occupation of Iraq, etc.
You PUMAs just have your fun and start your little Obama-hatred blogs and blast out your emails. We true Democrats will still save the world, with you in it.
sfH,
Is the “progressive Obama presidency” you speak of the one that Obama is rejecting, given the increasing number of Democratic progressives who are publicly pleading with him to pull them out from under his bus?
“We true Democrats will still save the world, with you in it?” Are you writing his speeches?
Please e-mail me, if your holiday is done.
SM
Oh, please, Steven. Obama is triangulating toward the middle, just like every successful presidential candidate has more or less done since the invention of the 24 hour news cycle. The sainted Bill Clinton was the absolute master of this, which is why progressives never liked him much, either.
Yeah, I’m back, I’ll be in touch.
BWAAAAHAAAAA
bom bom bom
attack of the zombie trollbots……
sfh — its called flip flopping.
Do you still get headaches since you had your lobotomy?
COUNTRY BEFORE PARTY ALWAYS
PUMAS,BUBBAS, AND THOSE PEOPLE RULE
All that proves is that Obama is spending money like a drunken sailor and not getting any results for it. McCain has gotten mucho mileage out of a few rinky-dink ads. Hmm, now who do I want to be in charge of our economy?
More proof you don’t understand elections. Increasing turnout with GOTV doesn’t show up in pre-election polls.
Correct. In 2004 the GOTV winner was Rove’s operation with evangelicals, which probably accounts for the bulk of why Kerry led Bush by several points right up until Election Day and then lost the popular vote. This year’s Obama GOTV operation absolutely dwarfs even Rove’s ‘04 project — and McCain has pretty much nothing. This accounts for the startingly negative advertising that began as soon as Steve Schmidt (a Rove protege and veteran of past Bush campaigns) took over the McCain campaign. Schmidt’s a bright guy and understands that McCain has no real chance of winning this election on his own merits or from GOP ground efforts; their only chance is the utter destruction of Obama as an acceptable candidate. So you PUMAs, of course, will love their campaign more and more as time goes on: they will be relentlessly negative from now until November.
Hola Gato!
arent the zombie trollz kewt tonite!
:0>
Hill a ree
Hill a ree
Hill a ree
WooT!!
So why all the ansgt if we’re no threat, if you have the election sewn up? The lady doth protest too much!
And “Democrats will save the world?”
You’ve been reading too many super-hero comics. BTW, I have always voted with the Dems and come from a long line of hardworking Democratic loyalists.
But not this year. Not with this candidate.
But as you said, we’re not important anyway. So, it seems silly to waste so much spleen on the “insignificant, irrelevant” opposition vote.
Did you catch the flip in the Catholic vote? Thought that was interesting. But hell, Catholics represent a mere 65 million votes [who strangely have traditionally voted Democratic]. Wonder why the shift? So ungrateful, particualrly when you and your Annoited One are going to save the world.
God works in mysterious ways!
I did not catch the flip in the Catholic vote; please link me if you can. What I do know is that, however you slice and dice it, Obama is still winning enough states to beat McCain — and by a lot, not a little — in the electoral college. And that’s before he really introduces himself to the American public at his convention — which is of course tailor-made for that patented Obama stagecraft — and goes toe to toe with McCain in the debates, where I really do not think McCain will shine, given his general inability to go more than a day or two without making at least one major gaffe about subjects that are supposed to be his expertise.
If you come from a long line of Democrats then in this hour of great global peril, when the entire world is looking to America to offer responsible leadership in the Middle East, on global warming, on repairing the economy, you should be ashamed of yourself for voting for a hack Republican who is standing there promising to do the wrong, stupid thing on all these issues. If you call yourself a Democrat but are willing to let the next two Supreme Court justices be chosen by John McCain, again — you should truly be ashamed.
There’s this thing called Google…type the words Zogby poll into the little box at the top of your computer screen and it will lead you to the information. Jeebus, you Obamabots are a lazy bunch…gimme, gimme, gimme - I can’t do it for myself.
Zogby?
Ha! Man, nobody thinks their polls are worth anything.
true democrats my ass. Guess your also another inexperienced boob. Kerry was up this time by 30 points but the Republican released their ads against Kerry and he is gone. Well the little twit has now lost his 9 point lead. Take a look at the strawpoll on AOL that is what his map is going to look like. He is not going to win. He pissed to many people off. I am looking forward to a very bright red map this year if Oblowme is the nominiee.
JJJ,
Like many people on many sides of the issue, you seem to be confused by the difference between being a self-identified PUMA and someone who shares the PUMA ethos. When PUMAs say they represent approximately 3 million voters, they are pointing to the 20% of Hillary Democrats who say they are not voting for Obama, i.e. 3 million/18 million. These people share the PUMA ethos.
PUMA membership is small, but it is only the tip of a large iceberg of disaffected Democrats.
Further, and as noted by others here, if PUMA was no threat, you would not be here because you would be working elsewhere to fight the elements that are lending to Obama’s weak showing in the polls. In other words, Obama needs his supporters to be working hard to stop his well-documented slippage in the polls. You are here because you perceive us to be one of the forces that is undermining Obama’s chances for success.
Logically speaking, your presence here is proof that your assertion that PUMA is no threat is FALSE. You are committing a performative contradiction. What you are doing and saying is no different than if you were to write the comment, “I will never write a comment on No Quarter.”
Please ask your campaign to send Obama’s best and brightest because what you’ve sent so far represents little challenge to us benchwarmers.
SM
I’m insufficiently versed in philosophical jargon to know whether this qualifies as a performative contradiction, Steven, but you commit a fairly element error of your own in assuming that NQ constitutes the primary place where we few Obama supporters expend our energies. I’m not (primarily) here in order to win Obama votes. I’m here (primarily) because I enjoy this community’s passion and have fun arguing with them.
Argue? All you do is tell us how great Obama is doing great and offer up jejune psychoanalyses of our character defects. You obviously think you’re brilliant.
PL
I love the term ” jejune.” Thank you for doing so where you did.
SM
sfH,
I did not say NQ was a primary place. I said:
“if PUMA was no threat, you would not be here because you would be working elsewhere to fight the elements that are lending to Obama’s weak showing in the polls.”
and
“You are here because you perceive us to be one of the forces that is undermining Obama’s chances for success.”
The extent of my claim is that JJJ’s attendance indicates that of all the places where an Obama supporter might expend energy to defend Obama, this is a place that JJJ thought it was worthwhile to expend energy. No more. No less.
I am glad you are back because, apart from se, Francis, and Ray, the pro-Obama commentary has suffered while you have been gone.
SM
PS Please check out that Zogby poll. It shows where Obama is sliding in the demographics, though it does confirm your electoral college commentary (likelihood of Obama win 58%). This said, the slippage is significant, regardless of who one supports. Obviously, I am pleased with his slippage.
Joe Joe Joey—
I gave up emailing people because I realized most don’t care, apparently, as none has ever answered except with an insult. That doesn’t mean I’m not here…
I am one of those who DIDN’T send you an email! Get ready for a November surprise!
LOL. I keep trying to explain to you folks that the November Surprise is going to be Obama’s GOTV operation. Young people — the huge under-25 generation, way bigger than the baby boom — that is just now making its presence felt in national culture and politics, is going to vote in record numbers and sweep Obama to victory. The entire world is going to rejoice at the end of the Republicans’ insane governance and this great turning of the page on the part of American voters. This victory will be seen as the next great evolution of American politics, after FDR in 32 (conservative to liberal) and Reagan in 80 (liberal to conservative). The new progressive era has already begun — see the Democratic blowout in 2006. This November will codify it. You guys just don’t see it coming because you understand neither culture nor media nor politics nor polling demographics. Oh well. You’ll see.
GOTV, hmmmm, what was that idiom? You can lead a horse to water…{finish it for me}
I hate to tell you but he is losing them now he is no longer the new toy lol. I happen to work with young people both whites and blacks are turning away from him. The only thing your going to see is the biggest loss in History and not only the White House but also the House and Senate. Botox Pelisoi is going to be out on her ass and so is John Kerry. I am counting the days down until Obama is back in Il being homeless because that whitey tape is played Michelle’ partnership would be gone. Comeon who is going to want her representing them when they know how she really feels about them. He may lose even the African Americans. He doesn’t seem able to even get Hillary’s African American voters.