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Obama Forgets the Forgotten Middle Class

During the opening night of the Olympics, John McCain broadcast the following ad, titled “Painful”:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWXqpHEsrxc[/youtube]

I was struck by the high quality of the ad. It tweaks Obama’s celebrity status, and then unleashes a full-throttle class attack on Obama. “Life in the spotlight must be grand,” intones a woman’s voice, dropping her voice off for emphasis, “but for the rest of us times are tough. Obama voted to raise taxes on people making just $42,000.”

Contrast this ad with the lingering image of Obama in Europe, a trip which I think cost him dearly. Obama is trying to stretch his image into that of a statesman; he tried to fill the shoes of real presidents by going on the Euro-Disney tour of historic moments of American presidential history. But these staged events actually make Obama seem smaller, like the scared guy hiding behind a faux presidential seal:

seal

I’ve been thinking about Obama’s missteps since he “secured” the nomination. I think Obama would have been wise to go somewhere he lost big, like West Virginia, leaving behind his entourage and asking working people about their concerns in the streets and cafes of small town America. Instead of puffing himself up to look presidential, Obama should bring himself to the door steps of poor whites in Appalachia, Latinos in Texas, the elderly in Florida. Bill Clinton published a book during the 1992 campaign called “Putting People First,” and his economic message struck a chord. Obama has promised Hope, but he has failed to articulate a compelling economic message. But I suspect that he and his advisers are already intoxicated on their perceived greatness.

ppf

Obama’s message is a post-modern, self-referential echo of how great Obama is, because Obama brings you hope and that’s what you’ve been waiting for, in addition to yourself (who you didn’t know you were waiting for). He won’t let you be complacent and he will remind you that you and he are merging into “The Ones we’ve all been waiting for”. And then a light will shine. Our tires will spontaneously inflate. And the earth will begin to heal.

Putting sarcasm aside, take a look at a Bill Clinton ad from 1992. People often complain that politics is all image and no substance. But here we have a candidate who is nearly all substance. He is working at his desk while the names of economists supporting his economic plan scroll across the screen. Obama fills the screen with himself and his adoring crowds, Bill Clinton (like Hillary Clinton) outlined solutions. Working Americans, I suggest, can see the difference.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gny-7ZBsJ9w[/youtube]

My neighbor told me today that he’s voting for McCain. The only other time he’s voted Republican was for Nixon in 1972, an ominous warning for Democrats.

If Obama is losing Democrats like my neighbor — white ethnic, life-long Democrat, over 65 years old — he is in deep trouble. Back in April, Anglachel wrote that Obama’s inability to speak the language of the working class would cost the Democrats the election:

Should Obama be the nominee, he can kiss the general election goodbye … the Democratic Party leadership itself is going to be paying for its whole-hearted embrace of reductionist class politics. Some voters will defect to the Republicans, though I think that is going to be limited … I think you see a significant section of the working class simply turn away from participation, depressing turn out and costing the party electoral success. They will stay away until the party offers them candidates who talk to their material interests instead of to the leadership’s fantasy of being modern day Solons.

Obama’s inability to speak to the “forgotten middle class,” as Bill Clinton famously called them, is a primary source of his troubles. His campaign is still running to win the votes of college towns, but now great swaths of working America are starting to pay attention and the candidate speaking to the concerns of the working class, ironically enough, is the Republican nominee.

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Comment by Amabo Kcarab | 2008-08-11 09:05:56

I just shake my head when I see that faux Presidential seal.

 

Comment by wodiej | 2008-08-11 09:11:46

No offense, but most college students do not have the maturity to have the remotest clue what is going on in America, how it works, who works for it and who really gives a shit. While they are embraced in their “hope and change” and hip coolness, there are millions of people working to secure democracy of all places, the Democratic Convention. Obama supporters are lost in their euphoria and totally oblivious as to what it’s all about. But come November, their going to find out.

Comment by moi61537 | 2008-08-11 10:16:52

Do you think the hordes of affluent voters and college age voters will be sufficient to outweigh the loss of the Clintonites and/or the more conservative democrats?

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 10:26:56

No. The college kids will get bored and more and more people who voted for him in the primary are opening their eyes. His first Hopey dopey speech was probably his best, the rest of his hopey dopey speeches are boring and he has such little substance and too many flip flops on issues and policies that he’ll lose by a landslide. That’s my opinion.

Comment by Dawnelle Leona del Puma | 2008-08-11 11:05:55

So in other words

We are being forced (or I feel we are) to give this election to the REPUBLICAN Hillary/Clinton hate machine

INSTEAD of

the DEMOCRATIC Hillary/Clinton hate machine

NONE OF THIS MAKES A DAMNS WORTH OF DIFFERENCE IN THE END THEN DOES IT?

(PARDON ME WHILE I CUSS)

BOMOGDAMRATFUCKINGPOSLIARSBLTTHIEVESMURDERERSHATERSFRAUDSPIGSAHHHHHHHHHHHH!

breathing

ok I feel a bit better ;-)

Comment by gmanedit | 2008-08-11 12:06:08

Yes. We are free to vote for either of our masters’ candidates.

Comment by Dawnelle Leona del Puma | 2008-08-11 14:09:17

doesn’t that just

SUCK!!!

arghhhhhhhhhhhh!

 
 
 
 

Comment by Joseyj | 2008-08-11 10:27:07

Maybe. The Repubs don’t seem to be pushing voter registration.

Comment by cleffnote | 2008-08-11 10:34:11

The Republicans have always said the viewer voters, the better their chance of winning.

Comment by standard | 2008-08-11 11:11:26

I was real happy when an AA co-worker said she was for Clinton. It really would bother me to think that everyone is voting race.

 
 
 

Comment by timepassages | 2008-08-11 11:24:40

I have to say I like this ad. It is much better than the others. I sure hope that the colleage age do not out weigh the other voters..

http://nativeamericansagainstobama.wordpress.com/

 
 
 

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-08-11 09:14:13

It seems to me that the ideal Presidential campaign would be based along the lines of “I care about the American people. Here is what I will do to help them live a better life.” Obama’s campaign has a message in it. The message seems to be: “Do I really have to be doing this? I’m going to win anyway, so why don’t you just go ahead and have the coronation?”

 

Comment by LookingForwardTo2012 | 2008-08-11 09:14:16

Great writing. You contrasted the difference by comparing the fluff and the substance, side by side.
Oh, how I miss the Clintons.

 

Comment by pm317 | 2008-08-11 09:16:05

I have noticed the Obama cannot communicate with the working class Americans and the military. I think it is his inherent disdain for both groups for their perceived lack of “intellectualism” (which of course is what ails the liberal intellectuals anyway). But I am not even sure that Obama is one of them but he started to pretend he was one of them — that is how he built his varsity coalition and now he does not know how he can change his tune.

Comment by pm317 | 2008-08-11 09:17:56

BTW, Bud thanks for the 1992 video — did you all know that Bush’s people modeled their campaigns even 2004, after Clinton’s?

Comment by Bud White | 2008-08-11 09:20:33

Interesting. I didn’t know that.

 
 

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 10:45:38

I think Obama is genuinely “secular progressive” (Bill O’Reilly’s term) and it is ONLY the fact that he happens to be half African that has allowed him to gain almost all of the African American vote, despite the fact that culturally most AAs are not “SP”.

This is the “new coalition” Donna Brazile speaks of. Secular progressives (of which I used to count myself one, but I’m beginning to wonder). Unfortunately it’s more like Frankenstein’s monster, though, two very different things grafted together in an inartful way. If Obama should make it to the White House (heaven forfend), I believe that coalition will dissolve overnight.

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 10:49:04

Oops, editing error. Should read:
‘This is the “new coalition” Donna Brazile speaks of. Secular progressives (of which I used to count myself one, but I’m beginning to wonder) and African-Americans.’

 

Comment by pm317 | 2008-08-11 10:59:32

I think secular progressive is just a new term for the old liberal intellectual. I still think he is a pretender with no core beliefs — there is ample evidence of lack of courage and conviction — a Noam Chomsky wannabe but afraid to stand by that because of these ignorant clingy people who will not give you their vote and yet, don’t know how to transform yourself to speak to those same people — so what you get is a confused muddle which is what he is right now. Look at Hillary on the other hand; how transformed she became after SC, and started talking about the invisible people — she of course had all the policies in place before that which made it easier to talk to those same people with conviction.

 
 
 

Comment by bayareavoter | 2008-08-11 09:17:00

That seal is like something straight out of SNL.

Obama has never cared about anyone but himself and his image. I just can’t believe how many people my age (over 50) fell for it. That was the most obvious difference with Hillary—she really cared about the people and the country. He doesn’t relate to the middle class or working class. He’s so Bush-like. We’re in an age of American Idol, I guess.

I’m still worried that their drive to register students and felons will pay off after watching how they gamed the caucuses and small red states.

My teenage daughter was very excited the other day: we saw a McCain bumper sticker next to someone’s Hillary sticker.

Comment by Darryl | 2008-08-11 09:33:10

Not according to Obama fans. They act like Bush Republicans to me (sorry if your on here and you like Bush). They Clinton Bash all the time. Just ask one of them what they think about Clinton, and you swear you are talking to a backwoods southern Lawyer. It wouldn’t be so bad, but they tell complete mistruths about them, and they don’t even know they are doing it. I just don’t understand how any democrat can say one friggin bad thing about the Clintons and still can themselves democrats.

Comment by Morgan | 2008-08-11 09:44:04

No offense taken, I like Bush for the most part and I see your point. I think this is one of those few times both sides might be able to vote for the same guy to avoid Obama. Then 2012 we can return to our roles as mortal enemies :) Kidding, I think there are probably quite a few things that a smart candidate could get everyone on board for, I know even though I’m not amongst the main group of this site there are subjects we agree on.

Right now the main subject we agree on is Obama– that’s a negatory.

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-08-11 09:53:26

It may be that Democrats and Republicans (excluding Obamacrats and Neo-cons) both want what is best for the country. They just disagree on the means to that end. Usually. Now is different. The biggest, most immediate threat to the country is Barack Obama. There is general agreement on that. So we work together to counter that threat.

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 10:58:48

I tell you, Bill O’Reilly’s book “Culture Warriors” was truly prescient about all this. Written in 2006, it’s about the schism between secular progressives and traditionalists. He makes the point in the book that this is NOT the same as liberal-conservative, so some liberals are actually ‘traditional’ and women, in particular, are likely to fall into that category.

Traditionalists can be liberal economically and pro-environment, but still believe in living a life devoted to principles and to service (just like Hillary!) rather than self gratification.

I think O’Reilly may have, TWO YEARS AGO, put his finger on why so many Hillary supporters loathe Obama.

Comment by Karma | 2008-08-11 11:11:39

Hmmm…I have to say O’Reilly kinda bugged me with that book and his going on and on about it.

Have to admit, I couldn’t really make it through his show then. But he would interupt people to make those points kinda messing with the flow of the interviews.

All that said….he may be right.

Comment by Karma | 2008-08-11 11:13:07

oops…interrupt

 
 
 
 

Comment by jadwiga | 2008-08-11 10:24:13

I keep dreaming about a McCain-Clinton ticket. I know, there is no chance because of party politics. But it would be nice. Two good politicians on the middle of the road, bringing the country together. Unity on grand scale.

It would be nice to have a third party made up by moderate dems and repubs. The fringes would lose their influence to a certain extent.

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 11:03:54

Me too. It would be an unbeatable combination. Not just electorally but also in governing the country. It HAS been considered, as Kerry considered asking McCain to be VP. And maybe it’s been done (I forget my U.S. history).

 

Comment by timepassages | 2008-08-11 11:26:19

 
 

Comment by no waffles aka drkate | 2008-08-11 10:42:24

very funny, Morgan. I look forward to that day of spirited debate, and am gladd we can agree now on the danger Obama represents to America.

 
 
 
 

Comment by valsthewoman | 2008-08-11 09:17:08

I WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN OBAMA IS A FRAUD I WANT MORE 411 ON HIS FAKE BIRT CERTIFICATE AND HIS 1981 TRIP TO PAKISTAIN!

Comment by Dan | 2008-08-11 09:48:31

Val,

You will find the CAPS LOCK KEY is on the left side of your keyboard, about halfway up. Hit it to stop shouting.

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-08-11 09:55:26

Typing in ALL CAPS tends to get your message disregarded.

Comment by jadwiga | 2008-08-11 10:25:17

If it is more than one line, it is harder to read it too.

 
 
 
 

Comment by katmandu | 2008-08-11 09:17:41

Peter Brown, who runs Quinnipiac:

“Every poll shows that people want a Democratic president, the problem is they’re not sure they want Barack Obama.”

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12433.html

One of Brown’s observations:

“Watch Michigan — the Democrats think they’ve got it but they don’t,” says Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown, a longtime Michigan observer. “Obama should be killing [McCain] there, but there’s a lot more racial tension in Michigan than in other states.”

Obama also hasn’t pulled away in other Democrat-friendly neighboring states, watching leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota erode over the last month.

Comment by Darryl | 2008-08-11 09:47:00

If there is “racial tension” in Michigan, my god we are in deep shit.

 

Comment by Annie Oakley | 2008-08-11 10:04:26

“racial tension” ? Did he ask people this or assume it? Here’s a thought: If you set aside the racial identity of these tense people in Michigan, you might find they have issues over the primary process, labor, gender, etc.. Maybe their issue is that they want a Democrat for president, but they aren’t sure Obama is one.

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 11:06:54

That’s a code language for “anyone who doesn’t support Obama is a racist.” Michigan voters care a lot about the economy, it’s true every election, since they depend so much on the car industry (which is tanking right now BTW). Obama offers them nothing, especially since his cover was blown on NAFTA.

Comment by Tim | 2008-08-11 11:44:53

Heather said:
“That’s a code language for ‘anyone who doesn’t support Obama is a racist.’ ”

Bingo.

There’s another big backlash building against Obama because of how readily he cries “Racism” through his proxies at any and all substantive criticism. Someone criticizes his tax plan, and within minutes Moveon.org and DailyKos are writing press releases about how the criticism is racist.

My first post here, and I freely confess I’m a Republican. I gotta give Bill Clinton, credit, though; he was actually a pretty decent president. Even though I voted for W twice, I dare say I liked WJC better. Had he not diddled around with Monica, he would never have been impeached, and Gore would have handily won the 2000 election.

 

Comment by nobamaever09 | 2008-08-13 11:18:43

NAFTA, so why Unions are still suporting Obama. He will turn His bac on the!!!. He hates Middle Class,white working woman, and hard working man!!!

 
 
 

Comment by Karma | 2008-08-11 10:41:17

Racial tension…huh?

Like when Obama threw those two Muslim women under the bus?

The thing that kills me is the journalists who are continuing the racist theme for Obama. What true racist would vote for him in the first place? None.

So, clearly the point of bringing it up repeatedly is only exploitative of those who are on the sidelines. Call them racist and then they’ll jump to prove otherwise.

Hopefully, people get resentful of the psychological assault on their character and decency and wake up.

Comment by Katmoon | 2008-08-11 11:08:02

Agree Karma. Exploitive is right on the mark. It is the last thing this country and our people need is to be used further by anyone. Many feel “dirty” at this point in time for not having spoken out earlier against the war, many feel guilty about not speaking out sooner on civil rights. We don’t need an election run on whatever guilt is being fed. The mentality that it should be bought into is even more disturbing. No excuses for any act of whatever type of violence has taken place in our history, the key is not to repeat it. Which means you don’t get to use it as some sort of counter attack on people, who had nothing to do with any of it. The belief in the assumption of something owed due to past racism/harm is psychologically violent and destructive.

Comment by Karma | 2008-08-11 12:06:26

Excellent points.

 
 
 
 

Comment by SJ | 2008-08-11 09:18:56

Great ad, the Obama’s are so caught up in the fact that he is the first black man to ever get this far that they have lost all sight of what is really good for this country.

Obama will always be written in the history books, that is such a feeling it would surly make anyone ego rise. Imagine white people lining up to see Obama, to touch him, worship him, this black man from now where now having all this control and power, Obama’s ears are ready to pop off with all this adulation from the masses.

This poor man who was brought up on food stamps, in poverty is almost POTUS, and some of you still want him to think about the people or the country oh please not now Obama is still to high on his magnificence and the possibility of what could be.

 

Comment by bert | 2008-08-11 09:21:56

Bud, you are absolutely right. And chosing West Virginia as your example of what Obama should have one and should do really struck a chord with me. I worked on JFKs campaign for President. And he did visit West Virginia. And by all accounts the poverty he saw and the resilence of its citizens changed this man of privilege forever. He never forgot West Virginia and helped them economocally, and by extension, all Americans during his all too brief Presidency.

Obama tries to pretend he is the new JFK. But he is a fraud. Soon after he was elected to the U.S. Senate there was a picture of Obama on the newswires in swimming trunks emerging from the ocean. There is a picture of JFK doing the exact same thing in Hyannis Port. I knew then when I saw that picture that Obama was a fake and a poser.

NObama

Comment by Bud White | 2008-08-11 11:34:33

Nice story. JFK is many of our personal hero, and it did take him rubbing shoulders with the common folks for him to gain a real empathy to their problems. thanks for the comment.

Comment by athy | 2008-08-11 11:44:43

Sen Obama ‘worked’ in the slums of Chicago for a couple of years.

His mom was basically a single mom.

He tells us how his family struggled.

He reminds us how his dad was a goat herder.

He has visited his paternal side of his family in Africa

He has made it a point of telling people how he understands what it meabns to be poor.

JFK grew up in wealth from the get go so he had to rub shoulders with the plebians and the poor to fully understand their pains and needs for their families.

Sen Obama…who supposidly understands what it means to be poor-screwed over the poor and middle class as soon as he had political clout to do so…
What is his excuse???

http://www.beyondchron.org/articles/The_Obama_Craze_Count_Me_Out_5413.html

http://amok.asianweek.com/2008/02/28/obamas-campaign-finance-chair-has-links-to-subprime-debacle/

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C05E4D71E3CF934A3575BC0A9679C8B63

Now…all his votes in Congress on subprime mortgage issue are beginning to make more sense…

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080211/fraser

The Nation, “Subprime Obama” by Max Fraser 1/24/08 Post 2/11/08 issue
“Obama’s disappointing foreclosure plan stems …

 
 

Comment by Tim | 2008-08-11 11:49:15

“there was a picture of Obama on the newswires in swimming trunks emerging from the ocean.”

Shhhh…keep yer voice down! :) Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun-Times “reporter” and founder of “Blowjobs for Obama” might hear you! After this picture was posted this “journalist” openly fantasized in one of her columns about following him into the locker room.

 
 

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 09:23:22

Edwards is a quitter, a panderer, a liar and cheater. Obama is a talker with no substance and seems to have gotten a push up the ladder of life by his backers, relatives and puppet masters. And both Clintons are continually working for Americans and the people’s issues. Clintons make slackers look really really bad. Enough said.

Comment by LookingForwardTo2012 | 2008-08-11 09:28:21

 

Comment by WasLNbutNoBamaBotsKeepStealingMyName | 2008-08-11 10:56:30

Not to mention an adulterer (edwards)

 

Comment by athy | 2008-08-11 11:50:30

Read about Sen Obama’s missing/lost years-and-what kind of ‘pushes’ he may have gotten during his early years…especially during college & law school…

http://www.deepjournal.com/p/7/a/en/1497.html

http://forums.gunboards.com/showpost.php?p=396421&postcount=1

These articles are well-documented-

 
 

Comment by Perry Logan | 2008-08-11 09:24:07

The man is not a Democrat.

Comment by Darryl | 2008-08-11 09:35:51

I believe so too. I think he is the real manchurian Candidate. He is making us look like fools.

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 09:37:24

I heard a caller into Cspan this morning refer to Obama as an Internationalist. I’ve never heard of that in politics. Anyone know what it is?

Comment by HARP | 2008-08-11 09:43:36

Someone who puts the International community ahead of America.

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 09:48:14

Well the guy that called in said he was an Obama supporter and when he called O that it gave me great pause.

I believe Moveon represents groups from all over the world who are oppressed but are really anarchists. I mostly recall hearing complaints at the governments particularly the American Government and very little compassion about the actual oppressed people. Not sure what an Internationalist’s real concerns would be.

 

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-08-11 10:00:45

The POTUS must remember that the welfare of the U.S. depends somewhat on the welfare of the International community. But the welfare of the U.S. must always come first.

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 10:29:01

I agree with that.

 
 
 
 
 
 

Comment by Peggy Sue | 2008-08-11 09:27:17

Another excellent essay. And I’m so glad you ran that ad, Bill Clinton’s economic program, which wasn’t simply rhetoric but a detailed direction that did, in fact, put the country on sound economic footings. Remember Hillary’s comments: What didn’t you like about the Clinton years: The peace or prosperity?

Also these lines struck me:

“I think Obama would have been wise to go somewhere he lost big, like West Virginia, leaving behind his entourage and asking working people about their concerns in the streets and cafes of small town America. Instead of puffing himself up to look presidential, . . .”

Absolutely! When he took such a shellacking in W.Va, then that region should have been the first place to go back and talk with the folks. Instead, he pulls a panzer move: try to roll right over people with this “I am the One” nonsense and the European razzle-dazzle. The whole movement has been empty and hollow and dangerous.

I’m with your neighbor. I’ve been a loyal Dem all my life. I believe in the Democratic notion of inclusion and offering a hand to pull people up to expanded opportunity.

But I cannot go for this. And that makes me sad, but also determined.

Thank you another fine piece!

Comment by Joseyj | 2008-08-11 10:31:03

We don’t hear much about the millions of Americans without access to health care anymore.
But we hear lots about Obama’s celebrity status.
Obama must be relieved to skirt the issues and specifics.

 
 

Comment by HARP | 2008-08-11 09:28:53

Obama has only ONE policy, and that is to get to the White House. Once defeated, I`m sure he will self destruct.

 

Comment by Disgusted | 2008-08-11 09:30:43

Sorry for pasting such a large article here, but I could not post the link. For some reason NQ does not allow me to post news from Yahoo. I thought it was a good read. It is 7 WORRISOME SIGNS EMERGE FOR OBAMA AHEAD OF DNC.

Glenn Thrush
Mon Aug 11, 5:29 AM ET

A few weeks back, Time magazine was musing that John McCain was in danger of sliding from “a long shot” to a “no-shot.” Around the same time, a hard-nosed former Hillary Clinton insider declared the race “effectively over” thanks to the McCain campaign’s ineptitude, the tanking U.S. economy and Obama’s advantages in cash, charisma and hope. And Obama, up by three to six points nationally, was about to leverage a much-anticipated trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and Europe into a pre-convention poll surge.

Instead, his supporters are now suffering a pre-Denver panic attack, watching as John McCain draws incrementally closer in state and national polls – with Rasmussen’s most recent daily national tracker showing a statistical dead heat.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has been privately enumerating her doubts about Obama to supporters, according to people who have spoken with her. Clinton’s pollster Mark Penn recently unveiled a PowerPoint presentation red-flagging Obama’s lukewarm leads among white female voters and Hispanics – while predicting a five-point swing could turn a presumed Obama win into a McCain landslide.

“It’s not that people think McCain will win – it’s that they are realizing that McCain could win,” says Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown, whose surveys show tight races in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. “This election is about Barack Obama — not John McCain — it’s about whether Barack Obama passes muster. Every poll shows that people want a Democratic president, the problem is they’re not sure they want Barack Obama.”

Obama’s aides point to the stability of his small national lead, say they aren’t worried about his summer stall and think his numbers will improve when voters begin tuning in to the conventions.

“This is a country that is looking for a fundamentally different direction and John McCain offers nothing but the status quo,” said spokesman Bill Burton, adding that he wasn’t “losing any sleep” over his boss’s rough patch.

The campaign’s confidence may turn out to be justified but two weeks prior to the national convention there are more than a few worrisome signs for Obama. Here are seven:

1. Race. “The idea that Obama was going to win in a blowout was always preposterous,” says former Nebraska senator and onetime presidential hopeful Bob Kerrey, an Obama backer. “A big piece of this, of course, is whether white people are going to support a black guy… If [Obama] is a tall, skinny white guy named Paul Jones it’s a different story.”

Obama is running nearly neck-and-neck with McCain among white voters in most polls, a major cause for optimism considering that John Kerry and Al Gore lost the white vote by 17 and 12 points respectively. Among whites, he does well with women, the affluent and college grads but fares poorly among low-income earners and Catholics – key swing groups that handed Hillary Clinton stunning blowouts in West Virginia and Kentucky.

How much does his race factor into tightening contests in Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota and Ohio? Nobody knows – and that’s the problem.

A huge challenge for Obama, insiders say, is simply determining how much skin color will matter in November. Race is nearly impossible to poll – no one ever says “I’m a racist” – and no campaign wants it revealed they are even asking questions on the issue.

“It’s the uncertainty that kills me – we know it’s going to be factor, but how big a factor?” asks a Democratic operative with ties to the Obama camp. “How do you even measure such a thing?

Adding to the jitters: GOP surrogates like New York Rep. Pete King have vowed to make Obama’s relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright a centerpiece during the homestretch.

2. Obama’s strength in Virginia may be overhyped. His chances of ending the Democrats 44-year losing streak in the commonwealth are pretty good – thanks to the explosive growth of the liberal D.C. suburbs, and a 147,000 spike in voter registration sure to benefit Democrats. But Obama’s aides privately concede his odds in Virginia are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses Ohio and Florida.

3. Michigan’s in play for McCain. In the year of the downturn, the hard-hit upper Midwest should be prime Obama country. Instead it’s a potential minefield. Obama is still ahead by two to five points here – similar to margins of victory enjoyed by Gore and Kerry in the last two presidential contests– but McCain has quietly crept up over the past month and could vault ahead if he anoints ex-Gov. Mitt Romney. Simmering tensions between predominantly-black Detroit and its white suburbs could hurt Obama. And McCain’s surrogates were handed a gift in the jailing of Obama supporter Kwame Kilpatrick, Detroit’s mayor.

“Watch Michigan — the Democrats think they’ve got it but they don’t,” says Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown, a longtime Michigan observer. “Obama should be killing [McCain] there, but there’s a lot more racial tension in Michigan than in other states.”

Obama also hasn’t pulled away in other Democrat-friendly neighboring states, watching leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota erode over the last month.

4. Bad times could be good for McCain. If anger helps Democrats, fear advantages Republicans. A growing number of Democratic strategists worry that some swing state voters may opt for McCain if the economy veers from merely awful to downright terrifying. The typical political calculus – that bad economic times will deliver the White House to Democrats – may not hold if people start viewing the downturn as, essentially, a national security crisis that can’t be entrusted to a novice. And that was McCain’s underlying message in his Paris Hilton ad: Bank failures, soaring gas prices and plummeting house values are forms of economic terrorism and he’s an all-purpose anti-terror warrior.

“John McCain is a known quantity,” says Bob Kerrey, who thinks Obama will ultimately prevail. “You don’t look at John and say, ‘Who the heck is he?’ he’s a veteran, he’s a guy who got pretty banged up in Vietnam. He can deal with crisis. There’s some uncertainty about Senator Obama.”

The good news for Obama, of course, is that McCain – who infamously admitted he “never understood” economics – is loathed by unions, was somnambulant at the dawn of the housing meltdown and still gropes for a coherent economic policy that doesn’t include the words “offshore drilling.” But he doesn’t have to win the argument, just reinforce doubts about Obama with wavering swing state voters. The Illinois senator still enjoys a major edge on the economic issues, but his 20-point June lead on the who-can-best-fix-the-economy question slipped to a 17-point edge in July, according to the Pew Research Center.

“Obama wins on the economy,” said Guy Cecil, Hillary Clinton’s field director during the primaries. “But it will be interesting to see if McCain’s able to close the economic gap.”

5. Where have you gone, Ross Perot? Bill Clinton, the lone two-term Democratic president since FDR, wouldn’t have been elected if independent Ross Perot hadn’t siphoned 19 percent of the vote in 1992. Former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, staging an indie bid from McCain’s right, has little cash and doesn’t seem to be a factor in competitive states.

6. The Legacy of LBJ, Jimmy and Bubba. Barack Obama would have been a trailblazer no matter what – but the Democrats’ trail to the White House has been remarkably narrow since 1960, accommodating only southern whites with border-state strength: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. (Add Al Gore if you’re counting the popular vote.)

7. Americans may want divided government. Some Democratic operatives think a possible landslide for their party in congressional races could backfire on Obama.

“Fairly or not, folks think he’s pretty liberal and nobody wants a pair of Pelosi’s running things,” says a New York-based Democratic consultant.

Adds Bob Kerrey: “The country’s still pretty divided… people may want a divided government. They want change but I’m not sure that the Democratic agenda has the support of a majority of Americans.”

Comment by jwrjr | 2008-08-11 10:04:48

Kerrey misses a fairly significant point. It is not the white folk in America that are making an issue of race. It is Obama who is doing that.

Comment by beebop | 2008-08-11 12:54:04

But I have news for Kerrey. Without his race, 0bama wouldn’t have finished as well as Edwards. No resume, nothing “new” about him? He’d have gotten the 0’s 0bama deserves.

 
 

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 11:21:46

How disingenuous is this:

“A big piece of this, of course, is whether white people are going to support a black guy… If [Obama] is a tall, skinny white guy named Paul Jones it’s a different story.”

– If Obama were a tall skinny white guy, with his record of accomplishments, he would be a nobody. It is precisely his race, parlayed into a symbol of ‘hope and ‘change’, that has made him viable at all.

– What kind of sickness is upon this country, that so many supposedly intelligent (educated) people cannot just see this as the obvious fact it is? Maybe they do and they’re just totally confident that his symbolhood is sufficient reason to vote for an empty suit.

 
 

Comment by missE | 2008-08-11 09:32:23

Ha, Bud I forgot how big that seal was. I can’t believe no one in the campaign could see how ridiculous that looked.

This clip is from the Chris Matthews show. They are talking about the opinions of fellow Senators from both sides of the aisle. Bottom line, Obama did nothing to reach out to Republicans (Hillary has) and Obama is arrogant and inexperienced. But we already knew that.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/5zaz4f

 

Comment by JULIE | 2008-08-11 09:32:41

It is so difficult to comprehend just how this fraud got this far. The man is a nightmare.

 

Comment by Laura | 2008-08-11 09:33:27

My husband voted republican once in 1980 for Reagan. I’ve never voted for a republican president but this time I will. Two educated over 50 long time dems. I wouldn’t be so sure of myself if I was Obama.The french relay team got egg on their faces last night due to that kind of arrogance. Lesson here?

Comment by Heather | 2008-08-11 11:42:37

Not only that, I think the Olympics are going to hurt Obama.

Obama wants to sell the idea that America is a crappy country where everyone feels hopeless and ethnic minorities are treated badly. Otherwise, why should we need him to ‘heal’ us?

Yet look at the images coming out of the Olympics!! NO other country on the face of this earth has the ethnic diversity that we have. It is beautiful to see, and brings a tear to the eye, making us all so proud to be Americans. Exactly NOT what the Obama campaign wants us to be feeling.

 
 

Comment by chris | 2008-08-11 09:33:50

Finally I think that the American public is beginning to get it in spite of the media cover-ups. The signs are unmistakeable. Coupled with his inability to communicate without a script and the coming explosions about his eligibility and background, he is going down. I want this to happen before Denver, but really, as long as it happens before Nov. I will be happy. When challenged to step up, Americans can get it done. Look at our men’s relay team last night at the Olympics. The French trash talked them and said they would smash the Americans, because that was what they came to the Olympics for. Well guess what, the great American heart and will got the job done. What great young people we have and what a great spirit and what a great Country!!! See ya France.

On another note, Fox did a segment on JEdwards having cost HRC the nomination. JMO but I think that OB’s gang of evil had the set-up planned all along. They kept Edwards in to pull from Hillary’s votes. The threat of exposure was there all along. Why else would Elizabeth Edwards go along with letting J run even though she knew it was under false pretenses? What else did they threaten them with I wonder? Why else would JE endorse OB? He now was of no use anymore so they let the dogs out. Under the bus Edwards family. No excuses for JE infidelity, but methinks there is a lot more here than meets the eye.

Comment by Joseyj | 2008-08-11 10:52:06

Exactly!! - more here than meets the eye.
I’m still wondering if Edwards really told Elizabeth in 2006….
or maybe I just don’t want to believe Elizabeth was willing to go along with the ruse.

 
 

Comment by HARP | 2008-08-11 09:37:19

The party has been taken over by “limousine liberals” and “Saab socialists”. Not a winning combination for the White House.

Comment by Smells like McGovern | 2008-08-11 11:08:13

add BLT proponents to your list of hijackers.

Leah Daugherty post

 
 

Comment by AJSHOPE | 2008-08-11 09:37:37

Ah, it’ll be nice to see Obama crash and burn. The wheels are falling off of the bus and it’s about to drive off a cliff. Come November, it’ll smash to the ground and explode. I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama has a mental breakdown on national television after the results are reported.

Comment by Fandango13 | 2008-08-11 10:25:39

breakdown, yes, speech no.

Nobama.

PUMA lives.

 
 

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 09:39:18

Political is reporting tha Obama has another book coming out in the next week or so.

I wonder who wrote it? Seriously when would he have had a time?

As a published author of 7 books it takes months of grinding away to complete a book.

Comment by cleffnote | 2008-08-11 10:43:54

Oh, a book, well that explains why he hasn’t had time to come up with any real solutions. Ohhhh, now why didn’t I think of that before.

 
 

Comment by Darryl | 2008-08-11 09:41:59

I noticed the sentence, “thanks to the explosive growth of the liberal D.C. suburbs, and a 147,000 spike in voter registration sure to benefit Democrats.” Now I wonder how much the Republican spike was, or if it dropped by the same amount. This is what gets me, that is propaganda right there, they give you a piece of information but don’t analyze it, then come to some proposterous conclusion that it will benefit the democrats? How do they know that? Do they compare it to anything? No. Its complete bullshit scientifically. Bullshit to sway the mindless.

 

Comment by obamaphobe | 2008-08-11 09:43:34

Obama has to be reminded over and over. He is not the President, he just plays one on TV.

Comment by roseeriter | 2008-08-11 10:31:04

Sometimes these celebs take their role too seriously..LOL!

 
 

Comment by Lorey | 2008-08-11 09:49:25

I think this man has a serious psychological problem. Edwards narcissistic and egocentric problems seem like peanuts compared to Obama that believes he is the Messiah. Presumptuous, arrogant, liars that underestimate our intelligence this describes Obama and Michelle is a nutshell.