Erosion
By Truthteller on September 13, 2008 at 6:38 AM in Electoral College, Florida, McCain/Palin 2008, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Ohio, Rasmussen, Sarah Palin, Washington state, general election
216 for McCain-Palin, 217 for Obama-Biden, 105 Toss Ups: Obama’s lead in the electoral college has officially eroded. Here is Survey USA’s report about the state of electoral affairs in Washington state:
Democrat Barack Obama’s once double-digit lead in Washington state is no more, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. In an election today, eight weeks till votes are counted, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago (before both candidates had named their running mates), Obama is down 2 points; McCain is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, Obama is down 6; McCain is up 6. Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today.
Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama’s once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.
The erosion of Obama’s once staggering lead is not limited to Washington state; it has also altered the landscape of Montana. I quote Rasmussen Reports:
John McCain has opened a double digit lead over Barack Obama in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Treasure State finds McCain leading by eleven, 53% to 42%.
That’s quite a change from late July when the race was a toss-up. Montana has voted for a Republican candidate in nine of the last ten presidential elections but Obama had made clear his intention to compete for the state’s three Electoral College votes. The candidate himself spent the Fourth of July in Butte, Montana and his campaign ran significant television advertising in the state. However, just before the Democratic National Convention, Obama stopped advertising in Montana and several other traditionally Republican states.
The erosion is also occuring in North Dakota. I quote Rasmussen Reports again:
Like neighboring Montana, North Dakota has become a lot friendlier to John McCain in the first polling conducted since Sarah Palin was nominated to be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters shows McCain with a 14-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 55% to 41%. In early July, the candidates were tied in the state and Obama was looking to the Dakotas and Montana as a way to expand the electoral map for Democrats. Now, the Democratic nominee appears to be more focused on traditional battleground states.
But North Carolina really bore the brunt of this displacement of geological proportions. I quote ABC 11 News in Raleigh-Durham:
In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.
In a blink of an eye, a veritable avalanche followed in the wake of Sarah Palin’s emergence. States once competitive were swept into McCain’s columns, while others, particularly those “traditional battleground states,” are quickly sliding toward the precipice. McCain is hovering above the fifty percent threshold in Missouri; he leads Obama by 1 point in Nevada; he is inching ahead of Obama in Michigan; McCain-Palin trounces the Democratic ticket in Florida by a seemingly insurmountable 8 points; the gap separating Obama and McCain in New Jersey is closing; and Ohio is teetering on the brink: unless Obama can move mountains, the prospect of a Democratic victory will be nothing more than a pebble plummeting into a Republican abyss.
No wonder why Democrats on Capitol Hill are panicking. And no wonder why Obama is resorting to some of the most deplorable tactics imaginable. But Obama is desperate, and desperate candidates will do and say anything in a vain attempt to reverse a course that can only be described as inexorable.
Missouri will be solid red before much longer. I will be running anti-barky ads in my local paper. I will do whatever it takes to keep that from ruining my country.
I’m in a battleground state and am planning a McCain event. Those are promoted on the McCain website, you may want to go that route as well.
I live in KS. Never have been able to do much here to change to map to blue, so my family and I always travel to MO a couple of times every 4 years to campaign for the Dems. NOT. THIS. YEAR. I cannot do it for. this. candidate. If I do make those trips to MO, it’ll be to knock on doors for McCain/Palin, the first time I will have EVER worked a campaign for a Repub…but then this year is the first time I’ll vote for one too. This coming from a die-hard Dem who has worked campaigns for 40 years, since I was old enough to lick stamps and from someone who marched on Washington in protest of the selection of GWBush and in the voter’s rights march a few months later. This from a now registered Independent. Thanks, but not thanks, Sen. Obama. I don’t like your brand of democrat!
So this is what Obama meant by “uniting” the country? Obama is uniting Dem and Repub voters for McCain/Palin!
Early this morning I spent some time on the Rasmussen site and checked out the “History of changes of electoral votes” from Aug 22nd to Sept 9th and came up with a trend which I commented downthread:
GOP moved up in 8 States:
State from to elect. votes
AK likely GOP safe GOP 3
ND leans GOP likely GOP 3
MT leans GOP likely GOP 3
TN likely GOP safe GOP 11
LA likely GOP safe GOP 9
SD leans GOP likely GOP 3
NC leans GOP likely GOP 15
OH toss up leans GOP 20
no declines anywhere
whereas the DEM declined in 6 States:
NM leans DEM toss up 5
ME safe DEM likely DEM 4
CT safe DEM likely DEM 7
OR likely DEM leans DEM 7
CO leans DEM toss up 9
WI likely DEM leans DEM 10
no move ups anywhere
This trend of the last 2 weeks is very telling, I think. No wonder they are worried.
WOW!! very revealing.
And that’s with Michelle’s noticeable absence alongside Obama - while John and Cindy appear together.
This warms my heart.
This is typically what you’ll see is US presidential elections. Republican voters, on the whole, tend to vote more with the “head” rather than the “heart”. As such, they tend to remain undecided until later in the process. But as election day draws near, they begin to line up behind the Republican ticket. This is why every preidential election since 1968 has seen a late movement to the GOP, with the exception of 1992 (when Ross Perot screwed up the equation) and 1996 (when Bill Clinton was a safe incumbent and the Repubs fielded a weak candidate in Bob Dole).
I think this is especially true this year since there are an awful lot of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who are disenchanted with the Bush administration. Now they’re starting to line up behind McCain.
Gov. Palin is coming to Colorado twice in September and the event had to be moved to a bigger arena because of demand…and it sold out in 8 hours. She is also coming back the 3rd time right before the 1st presidential debate for a high price luncheon. If she keeps on hanging out in this state, the toss up will definitely lean red imo.
If I were John McCain. I would send Sarah to these light blue states just to freak out BO. Send her to 4 of the battle ground states.
I predict as more states go from leaning to, to solid, in the red, he will use his resources and energy in battleground states and the light blue ones will start to seem worth additional effort. Good idea yo send Sarah to those places, I think she will help him the most in those areas.
Nobama is like the Republicans of yore. Whatever he says and thinks, the opposite is true. Remember, he thinks the more people see him the more they love him. What a fool he is. Just like Bush. Remember the talks with Rick Warren? 0bama was not only beat to a pulp by McCain, 0bama was so boring as to be unwatchable. If he starts pouring money and campaigning into the battleground states, McCain and Palin can just sit back and munch the popcorn. I am tempted to send Nobama money just to accelerate his implosion. What a twit! McCain/Plain 2008…..Hillary in 2012!
alibe4hillary — The reason Obama is losing is because of his attacks against Sarah Palin. A lot of the Dems going for McCain are Hillary gals and they are voting principles and values over issues this year. Howard Dean thought he could diss the Democratic Base and win with Repubs and Indies. He didn’t realize that the candidate he pushed into the nomination was tone deaf when it came to sensitivity. Obama will lose and he will take the Democratic ticket down with him. As a lifelong Democratic I say Goodbye and Good Riddance.
Obama is falling behind for more reasons than Palin. Yes one is that he should NEVER have attacked her. Stupid. Biden should speak out respectfully and challenge and/or debate Palin on issues only.
Bill Maher on HBO show called Palin a “stewardess” as though this is an insult. The sexism implied is doubled by his low opinion of women he feels are not elite enough or liberal enough?
Can you imagine how hard working decent women who have been [or are] stewardesses
must feel and think when this kind of drivel is spewed by a so called liberal lefty comic?
Maher’s contempt for women is overt. Even if he doesn’t share Palin’s ideas, she is a candidate and should be treated with respect. It should be possible to challenge her ideas without insulting references and blatant sexist behavior.
There is an unfortunate need to attack any woman running for office and demeaning her sexually. Hillary was accused at MSNBC as “pimping” Chelsea because she was on the campaign trail with her mom. Palin has had photoshopped bikini photos around that are denigrating lies.
Women appear very threatening to Camp Obama, and the more of this kind of dirt is slung, the more Obama will fade.
Instead of connecting viscerally with voters and explaining his positions and feeling their pain, he swipes at a female VP and uses the “Lipstick” analogy inappropriately. Even if he didn’t mean to insult Pailin it showed an ill timed use of Obama’s choice of words.
Palin isn’t his only problem.
NorrisMorris
Good insights. But of course Obama INTENDED TO INSULT PALIN IN HIS USUAL CAMOUFLAGED MISOGYNISTIC MANNER….
Did you not see him in N.C. day after his pathetic ABC debate in Pa.? He did his rapper-wannabe routine in:’
“Obama Gives Hilary the Finger”! dusting and scraping off his shoes as if (Hillary were excrement!
SHAME ON BARACk!!
Karma’s a bitch….November 5th
Make BHO spend $ and energy battling for states like OH and MI. I think that Mac and Palin campaigning together is very energetic, draws big crowds and will enrage the precious.
Since last March I have told everyone who would listen that MO won’t go for BO. I was one of the idiot Dems who voted for McCaskill because I couldn’t stand her predecessor - now I am waxing positively nostalgic about the little twit.
I am far to the left of the average voter here, but I know most have large amounts of native common sense in their genes. I could even understand (reluctantly) why they voted for Bush. What I can’t understand is how BO, hailing from an adjoining state, trashes so much of the population that resembles his own constituency!
We all know that Bill Clinton is a policy wonk, Rhodes scholar, intellectual - yet he would never marginalize and patronize vast chunks of the populace. For all his faults, he is a man of the people underneath, while Obama is, you might say, the “true fake”. He shows us nothing and I come from the Show Me state.
Dear MOMule. Good for you on your change of heart!
I cannot stand to see that McCaskill woman on the TV. She is the most horrible person. I guess she thought that she might get the VP nod from BO. She is a traitor to all woman-kind. I think it will be such poetic justice for McCain/Palin to win MO! I will be watching that state closely on election night.
For the first time, I am not sad that TX is now a Republican state. I have bemoaning that for years but now I see the Dems are totally nuts! I thought it was pretty nuts to nominate Kerry, but after what they have done to Hillary Clinton after all she has done for them, I think they are really nuts.
I hope the Clintons devote their remaining years to getting a new, viable, third party started. Meanwhile, I am hoping for McCain/Palin for 8 years and Palin/?? for 8 more.
Granny
Yes! Yes! Yea!
HILLARY CLINTON SHOULD START A THIRD PARTY. THE VOICE OF MODERATE PROGRESSIVES!!
Canada has 3 (now 4 with Green Party) major parties. If it weren’t for the Third, Canada would not have Univesal Health Care since 1965 and the major causes of bankruptcies are NOT medical bills as they’re in the States!
3rd Party is only rational solution. One that would respect Women and outlaw MISOGYNY!
All the Democrats needed to do to win was to act like Democrats.
Now all the Republicans need to do to win is not act like Republicans.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyrMS6MBuSg
LOL! Truer words were never spoken.
I am now on permanent Propaganda watch. The tables have turned.
What better serendipity than to allow the Republicans to Clean up the mess in DC by republicans. Both Parties have been corrupted by Corporate Lobby suck-up. Obama WILL NOT REFORM, but I believe McCain/Palin WILL!
The Obamacrats/DNC with Pelosi at the helm DID NOT WALK the talk.
roseeriter,
I believe this, too from the bottom of my heart. 0bama has been bought by special interests. Remember the abc producer who was arrested in Denver because he was outside the hotel photographing lobbyists and corporate donors having a special meeting?
They’re all so deep into the tank for 0bama even abc didn’t give this incident a lot of news time.
I’m not buying the Dems load of dung this time.
They’ll have to:
WIN WITHOUT ME!
The only people voting for the democrats are these angry lefties this go around. The party will be finished. I predicted it, but I didn’t think it would happen this go around.
Perry Logan — Well said. I believe the Republican Party will become more moderate as millions more Democrats join. In 1980 they won with the Reagan Democrats–this shift is far larger and can become a more permanent constituancy.
Virginia and Indiana will be red. No doubt. John McCain will keep CO and NV red. All he needs to do is pick-up either PA or OH- both would be great! Obama is toast. The DNC should have listened to Hillary, she was telling the absolute truth: “He can’t change the map. He can’t win.”
Republicans have always carried Ohio to win. Where Kerry took Pennsylvania in 2004 and maybe Biden can help with that state. I would focus on Ohio more, if I were McCain. JMO.
I live in PA. I know PA. PA will not go to Nobama
Tuppence — Democrats have been held hostage by the electoral map since Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1965. That was when the Dems lost the South and only Carter after Watergate and Clinton because of Ross Perot have won since. Dean was right that the Democrats needed to expand their electoral map in states they have lost to Republicans for the last 40 years. To do that they would have needed Hillary Clinton–but Dean and Pelosi forced Obama on the Democratic Party and now they will have the rest of their lives to reflect on how they lost an election they couldn’t lose.
Can someone explain to me why Iowa is going for Obama?
CORN. Honestly- Obama hands out big ass corn subsidies. You know our food, that’s being turning into fuel that won’t make a bit of difference to the energy crisis, while food prices go sky high and babies starve. That CORN. Oh and let’s not forget the CRAP wheat products we import from China that also kills babies and pets so our fields can be used to grow more corn.
Sen Jay Rockefeller stated two weeks ago that he thought WV was up for grabs. New survey yesterday says only about half of the state’s democrats support Obama. Don’t listen to Jay. WV stays in the GOP column.
Also. The map in this story has OH and IN grey. I don’t agree with that evaluation. IN has voter ID laws that helped keep Obama from using Gary to steal the primary and OH law enforcement is on high ACORN alert. Any swing state that is launching voter fraud initiatives is a state that Obama and his Al Capones should write off.
What is Jay Rockefeller smoking? He needs to step away from the crack pipe.
But I guess he’s doing what all the high profile Dems are doing along in the msm: brainwash the American voters.
From the beginning of this Presidential Election cycle they’ve been practising brainwashing techniques on us. They really think if they say it enough times, we’ll believe it’s true.
Sorry, some of us have minds of our own.
Obama and his goose stepping minions won’t be pulling any shady shit in Indiana. You have to show photo ID and you have to sign into a voter registration book. They match your signature to one they have on file. If it doesn’t match, your name isn’t in the book or it’s already signed, you don’t vote-period. Most of the volunteers are seniors, I trust them. I am still going to watch polling sites though to make sure in case some of Obama’s people volunteer. I’ll be getting in someone’s face if they break the rules.
Last week’s polls have McCain dropping from a double digit lead to only +5 pts. It is one of the dirtiest political systems, too, very corrupt leaders. Kennedy bought WV. It won the election for Clinton in 1992. It is also a very sexist state. While Hillary easily won the primary there, nearly 15% of the state Democrats voted for Edwards! That tells you something. WV always had a strong Democratic trend. It usually swings blue. And the Cook County system has been known to buy votes.
Do you seriously think that the inbred mountain hicks in WV are going to vote for a liberal black man for president?
If you do, please save me some of whatever you’re smoking.
Well, I told you so from Day I. We have been consistent supporters of Senator Clinton. Since Day One, when the Dems stared pushing this evil politician of hate mongering and disrepect for our country. We said no way, no how, noobama-Soetoro, Little Boots can go back to Chicago cess pool corruption, the worst in our nation and join his party buds, Levine and Rezko, hopefully in prison.
Obarky can see the handwriting on the wall why else do think he went to Bill C. for help. He even flipped his pride to do it but what’s one more flip. If Hillary has any sense she will stay away from this cancer before it infects her. With him on the ropes it is time for the Repugs to lay the wood to him, and bring in the storm troopers Rev. Wright, Father Pflager, Ayres, Rezco, Micheles whitey tape, Acorn, etc. etc.I just cannot wait.
Yes.
guido — I still hope for Obama’s sake he doesn’t do this — but yesterday Hannity said Obama is going to appear on Saturday Night Live tonight mocking Palin in a skit with actress Tina Fey. If Obama wants to turn more women against him this is the way to do it.
http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/2008/09/12/obama-lucifer-saul-alinsky-community-organizer-god-damn-america-wright-farrakhan-obama-no-christian-heads-up-from-rush-limbaugh/
The breadth of Obama’s deception is limitless.
to be fair Hillary Clinton was a student of alinsky as well. However Barack took the lucifer thing a bit too far.
Hillary discarded Alinsky teachings years and years ago. And anyone in college studying Political Science reads all kind os political ideology books. I’ve read most of them too including Malcolm X and the books about KKK, Socialism etc. Its called education which a good student wants to know and understand BOTH sides or all sides of an issue one is interested in. I’ve also ‘tested’ most religions and concluded that no organized religion was the answer.
Live and Learning critical thinking is a must for survival.
What, you are a Hillary supporter and you studied??? I thought we were all uneducated, low class, stupid white woman??? And clinging to religion as well???
shhhhhhhhhh Mirlo don’t let the cat out of the bag
LOL! A thirst for knowledge isn’t owned by colleges.
don’t forget the guns… bitter folks are like that…
Please teach me how to use a gun. I am feeling really bitter.
I think Hillary wrote about this in a Thesis and said she interviewed Alinsky twice. she said his thoughts were confusing and had no consistency. She rejected his ideas.
Hillary was like all teenagers, as a teenager. She tried on several hats at an age where I believe she was discovering who she is politically. She started as a Goldwater Girl from a strong paternal GOP influence, but she came of age in the days where MLK, JFK, and RFK were the most influential leaders of the day. Post-segregation America probably needed a Saul Alinsky to help swing the tide for a group of citizens, who, for the first time, began to have a voice in our society.
As Hillary has matured, and the pendulum has swung too far to the left perhaps, she has moved to the middle, and reflects a more tempered vision of America.
This election cycle was necessary for the Democratic party. Overconfident of a solid victory down ticket, they squandered a Majority lead achieved in 2006 in the House and the Senate and made a point of acheiving zilch. This, I believe was done intentionally, with hope that a faltering economy would reflect solely on Pres. Bush. We already were distrustful of him, and it was easy for the average American to believe that everything that goes wrong must be the fault of Leader in charge.
The GOP knows they had become the pariahs of the U.S., and they learned quickly after the 2006 elections that they needed to regain the confidence of middle Americans. this is where they differ from Democrats drastically, when the GOP loses an election cycle, they regroup and strive to become more like the “Average guy”, the Dems do the opposite, they let the single issue voters, and the most extreme faction of the party dictate the ideology that they run their next campaign upon. They move farther away from Middle Americans, embrace the east coast-west coast image of the country, and then gripe about, and try to bully the fly over moderates for not being “intelligent” enough to discard their own moral compasses and embrace their Ultra liberal agenda that will only increase their burden, and further isolate them from any hop of having a voice in the policies that matter to MOST Americans. The European model is not the American one, and I strongly suggest that we use our votes to send a message of our own to the Democratic party this November. It is time for the DNC to respond the way NBC responded last week with two of their top anchors at MSNBC, the Dems need to demote or get rid of the extremists, promote the moderates in the party to the helm and dispatch politicians and volunteers on what Bill Clinton called a “listening tour”. Don’t send them to either coastline, concentrate on the middle and heed the NONexperts on policy. When the DNC can achieve this, they will hold the key to the White House once again.
The difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Republicans want to win.
Hillary was a “Goldwater Girl” too, but that was a long time ago. When she discovered the civil rights movement and started working on behalf of it, that’s when she became the Democrat she is today.
I like it that she has been on both sides. That’s bipartisanship. She may think the Republicans have the wrong ideas, but they are not the enemies. Tell that to the Obamacrats.
And we’ll have fun, fun, fun till the voters send Obama aaaaawaaaaaaay! This election has become soooooo fun watching the new age stormtroopers get their candy asses handed to them by the Pros and good old common sense of the electorate in being able to sniff out a conman.
I’m not going to celebrate until a week before the election. If John McCain is leading he’ll win. This is the way it was for George Bush. Not to mention Obama over polls, and the undeceideds didn’t break for BO either.
And we’ll really have fun, fun, fun when Patrick Fitzgerald puts Obama aaaaawaaaaaaay!
secular — did you happen to see The McCains on The View yesterday? Barb and the bitches trashed them in every way possible. These East Coast Liberals like the women on The View love to put down middle America’s values and whenever Dems nominate a Liberal this is the reason they lose.
I predict we are going to see lots of the First Dude Todd Palin speaking directly to his fellow He-men in MI,OH, PA, and CO. And won’t that be great! A real macho guy, works with his hands all day ( but has no problems changing diapers or feeding babies) assuring fellow working class men they have nothing to fear from a strong,competent, working women. That it doesn’t diminish their masculinity to support the achievements of their wives, to respect their accomplishments, to be a real partner in the home and family life. OMG- brought to us by the Republicans! Who would’ve thunk it?
Dead on accurate. Who would have counted on the GOP to flip gender roles with a smile and with backbone? But they did. And that’s change we can really see - and support.
Sorry, BO; I guess picking Hillary was above your pay grade.
The Consequences of Rejecting Hillary
Fred Barnes
Thu Sep 11,2008
Washington (The Daily Standard) - IT’S WIDELY ACCEPTED now that Barack Obama would be better off if he’d picked Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate instead of Joe Biden. Obama had his reasons, particularly his discomfort with her as his actual vice president if he’s elected. Still, Obama sacrificed a stronger ticket by rejecting Clinton.
Absent Hillary, the contest between Obama-Biden and the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin is throwing the Democrats into disarray. The consequences of Obama’s veep decision appear mostly to favor McCain. And if Obama had picked Hillary? Here are a few of the differences.
No Palin. Okay, McCain might have picked her anyway. He was looking for a running mate who would help him shake up the campaign. And Palin has delivered spectacularly on that. But choosing her would have seemed far less of a game-changer had Obama picked Clinton. Palin would have been merely the second female running mate in 2008. And her appeal to those who had voted for Clinton in the primaries would have been reduced if not nullified altogether.
As a result, the prospects of the other potential game-changers McCain was considering–Democratic senator Joe Lieberman and pro-choice ex-Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge–would surely have risen. And while it’s unknowable whether McCain would have picked Palin if Obama had gone with Clinton, selecting Palin would have been a lot less likely.
No Biden. He’s not an albatross, but he certainly hasn’t given Obama a boost. He has brought no balance to the ticket, not in regard to class, gender, ideology, or anything except longevity in Washington. Worse, unlike Palin, he’s generated no enthusiasm or excitement. Biden has little appeal to the working class voters, especially women, who swarmed to Clinton in the primaries. He lacks the populist streak that Clinton had fashioned for herself. Biden is simply a weaker running mate.
Party unity. Democrats have come together fairly well behind the Obama-Biden ticket–but not as well as they would have if Obama had chosen Clinton. We still hear from disgruntled Hillary backers. Reporters have discovered they’re easy to find at McCain-Palin rallies. Polls can’t tell us how many will ultimately vote for McCain and Palin. But a chunk of them will–perhaps a few million–which means that Democrats aren’t as unified as they might have been.
Ohio and Pennsylvania. Republicans figured these states, notably Pennsylvania, were all but goners if Clinton won the Democratic nomination. Even as veep, she’d have had a favorable impact. When she was passed over by Obama, Republicans jumped for joy. Ohio, which a Republican presidential candidate has to win, now leans McCain. Pennsylvania, which is crucial to a Democratic candidate’s chances, has become a ripe target of opportunity for McCain.
Arkansas. As a Southern state, Arkansas is inclined to vote Republican in presidential races unless there’s a compelling reason not to. One of those reasons: a Clinton on the Democratic ticket. Without Clinton, Arkansas moves into the leaning (strongly) McCain camp.
Vice presidential debate. This is a no-brainer. Who would be the easier opponent for Palin to face in the nationally televised debate on October 2? Clinton or Biden? The tough woman or Senator Windbag? Biden will have to be on his best behavior and treat Palin gingerly. Clinton wouldn’t have had to.
Republican women. Mark Penn, chief strategist in the Clinton campaign, once insisted that 25 percent of Republican women were ready to vote for her for president. Many crossed party lines and voted for her in the primaries. Many of those women might have voted for an Obama-Clinton ticket. But how many Republican women are going to reject Palin and vote for an Obama-Biden ticket? Mighty few.
Because of all the problems associated with the Clintons–husband Bill, her relatively high unfavorability in polls, Clinton fatigue–Hillary Clinton appeared to be the wrong running mate for Obama. I thought so. I was mistaken. As Clinton won primaries in big states and developed a populist appeal to downscale white voters, her political value soared. As it turns out, Obama needed her. McCain is lucky Obama missed his chance.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
Obama didn’t pick Clinton because he didn’t want to share the limelight with her and he didn’t want President Clinton hovering in the background of his Presidency. Now he won’t have to worry about that senario after he loses and goes back to the Senate to do some work for a change. Don’t think he’s going to be too popular there however, because they will blame him if they lose congress as well.
Excellent idea.
Todd should be going directly for the men’s vote in MI and CO where he can show them he’s one of them and he understand! After all, he’s union like many in MI, he lives in the north country, understands 2nd amendment rights, drives a snowmachine and is a strong family man. Strong enough in his own right to appreciate and fully support his strong wife. He should also appeal to the Native American population with his own Eskimo heritage.
Both Todd and Sarah Palin show so many sides of their “regular people-ness” they appeal to a wide swatch of the voting population.
I think John McCain chose wisely. McCain got two for the price of one when he chose Palin. Ironically, the same could have been achieved by Obama had he chosen Hillary. Both women have husbands that “manly men” can relate to. Bill Clinton still has the highest IQ of any American President, and despite what the Obama campaign would have us believe, if Barack is elected to the WH, neither he, nor Joe Biden would take that claim to fame away from Bill. The difference is, that the average person perceives Bill to be an average guy. Bill has a gift on never talking down to his audience, he is humble and he appears to be fascinated and awed by the company he is surrounded by. That is a gift in a politician, and cannot be taught or learned, from a textbook.
Let’s hope Todd has a similar ease in his own skin while campaigning in the battleground states and can be used effectively to help seal the deal for McCain.
Yep. I think it’s why the democrats said they are going to subpoena him in the “troopergate” investigation. They are trying to intimidate Todd Palin and the entire family…in addition to bankrupting them.
Sorry, Obamabots, but that’s not change I choose to believe in or agree with.
Canadian, dude, unless you’re post is a snark you are one fucked in yer head dude/dudette.
Keep showing your true colours.
I wrote this on 9/11, after watching it all happen again…I probably should have posted it in the Thank You thread below, but it also seems appropriate here, because the Erosion this thread speaks of is thanks in large part to you all…
—–
I just watched the Towers fall again.
And the world stopped. It changed. We would never be the same.
Seven years later and here we are. We haven’t had another attack, but we’ve lost thousands of America’s finest. I will not debate the merits of the Iraq war. I believe that I, as a centrist Republican, and all you good people differ on that issue. But that does not diminish my affection for you, and I do not disparage your opinion. The world, and the issues that comprise it, is painted in shades of grey. Like the ash, like the ash that covered the World’s City.
Seven years later and here we are.
Do you know something? My heart is bursting with sorrow…and joy. I love my country. We came together on Sept. 12, after the ‘dust’ had settled, with a resolve that I contend no other nation in the modern world could muster. We were, for a very short and wonderful time, filled with righteous indignation. We were like the Spartans facing the coming hordes of Xerces. There would be retribution. We were angry, and no matter what any Eurocentric appeaser might say, we had EVERY RIGHT TO BE. But on the fringes of society, had we bothered to notice, we would have seen the crazed faces of the tormentors to come, we would have noticed that the Asylum doors somehow slipped open and the untamed frantic specters of our collective Id had coalesced into something nascent, something so horrifyingly ugly that – had we noticed – we would have crushed, swiftly.
Most of us, both parties, put our faith in a man whom I voted for. To lead, to find those responsible and to flush them out. I only wonder what might have been had President Bush had General David Petreus to lead this effort from the start. I only wonder what might have been had President Bush heeded the advice of people who questioned our ‘after-victory’ strategy, people like John McCain. Remember, almost everyone voted for this war, that’s a fact. Barack Obama did not. He did not have to. He gave a speech. What’s new.
Seven years later and here we are.
Our nation has become polarized, the fanatics have escaped the Asylum, and from out of corporate America, Hope emerged. Oh, sweet heaven above us, he could talk. He presented himself as the embodiment of the righteous answer to every wrong ever perpetrated in the history of this nation. He was Stephen King’s Walking Dude, amassing a collective of ideological stalwarts and confirming the worst fears of those of us in the middle of society, that the Asylum had been purchased, the Corporation was in control, and the collected ravings of our emotional insecurities was steamrolling his way to the White House.
In March, I began having trouble sleeping. I am not lying about this. I would toss and turn in my bed, worrying endlessly about the future for my two boys, one nine, one five. You see, I have studied history throughout my life. I thrive on it, on the science of politics and society. There is one undeniable historical fact that holds up to the tests of history, from cause and effect to policy: No nation state or Empire that has ever embraced appeasement and public self-mockery has ever – EVER – survived.
But I’m a Republican you understand. And I had no hope. In 2004, I wrote in a man I have always respected named John McCain for president (and his close friend Joe Lieberman for his running mate). It’s not that I hate or disrespect President Bush (I know, this is something we disagree on, hopefully respectfully). But I was watching what was happening in Iraq and was frustrated that too much faith had been put in men who were obviously not up to the task of winning this war. I wanted change, not in America, but in Iraq.
But I’m a Republican you understand. And there was no hope. The man I was supporting was ending his campaign, at least that’s what the media told me. He was carrying his own bags through airports and was, according to some, preparing a press conference to call it quits. It didn’t surprise me you see, my party had been taken over by the extreme Right Wing and was dying. There was no hope in the party, we were failing, even from within.
Then something began to happen. John McCain, never a man to quit in the face of adversity, kept soldiering on. He kept moving forward with a singular, positive message of hope and of the goodness of America. He never talked about appeasing the desires and perceptions of our friends in Europe (and they ARE our friends, but we need not seek their approval). He never talked disparagingly about our great nation. He spoke to what it was to be an American, what it was to fight for something you believe in and what it means, ultimately, to put your country first.
Somehow, whether it be divine providence (I don’t believe in such things as divinity and heaven, but I’m human and certainly could be wrong) or simple attrition, by March my party had chosen its candidate – and low and behold it was my hero, John McCain.
The Democrats laughed. “Lovely! Thanks for the 72-year old gift,” was the essential sentiment. But little did they know, five short months, a scorched earth policy and the most misogynistic primary campaign later, John McCain entered the convention period of this political process within 10 points of The One, The Messiah, The Id.
While my party began to coalesce around John McCain, something unseen had been born in the Democratic Party. It seems that the Id was unmasked, and that the base of the party was fractured. A hunter emerged from the pack of howling insanity, stealthy, enraged…and hungry. Hungry for a future bereft of the screaming cries of self-adulation, self-destruction and self-contempt. This proud brown hunter emerged unscathed from the fires of self-destruction, looked around in contempt at the screaming, wailing lies that propped up The One, and walked away. Proudly holding its head high, for the entire nation to see, it simply said “I am not of you. I am not of this madness. I will go from you, I will collect myself and I will return to this. I will return because I am HUNGRY. I am hungry and when the time is right…
I
WILL
FEED.
The Puma, angry, righteous and glorified, was born out of the ashes of the Democratic Party. With disdain, it flicked the ashes of its shoulders in derision and staked out its territory. It was ready to feed.
I watched in amazement as the Democratic Party split. Stunned and hopeful. “John,” I said to myself. “You have been given a sign, the cat looks West and it looks to you.”
And, ever the wise sage, ever the statesmen and patriot, he reached out his hand to the huntress, never fearful, and offered the nourishment of compromise. “I hear you,” he said. “I hear you and I understand. This is about much more than politics, this is about our nation. This is about our country and this is about ‘us.’
Not ‘me.’
Not ‘you.’
Not ‘the one.’
Us. We differ on so much but we both share the same vision and love of country. I know this. John McCain knows this. You know this. He listened, he offered compromise…
…and the Puma fed.
…and the One blinked.
Faced with the chance to heal the rift, to gather the party faithful, to pull the Ego and the Superego in and make at least an attempt to move on as a whole, the Id faltered. Always narcissistic, the Id would have none of that. You see, when you spend eternity screaming in silence against the roiling mass of nothingness that is self-love, the thought of shared thought, shared vision and shared authority is untenable.
The One chose the Nothing, the Ordinary, the Meek and Vapid. The Puma was enraged, and the hunger returned.
Flash forward, the One ascends from the heavens to the acropolis, and the world watches in awe as the most derivative, pedantic and pedestrian missive ever read to a groveling public is greeted with an orgiastic burst of adulation.
“He is risen, he is here, we are no longer sinners and racists and war fighting heathens. We are enlightened, evolved and progressive. We are the Id. We are the One. We can now like ourselves.”
The Puma was filled with the hunger of indignation. But John McCain remembered and he heard and he knew.
“America is NOT broken. We are NOT the problem.”
“Washington is broken,” he said. And he took the one great leap, the one great step, the one great move towards real hope and real change and chose Destiny.
“World, meet Destiny. Destiny, meet world.”
She was stunning, Destiny, she was nothing that the nation had ever seen. Riding out of the mountains of the last, great frontier, Destiny burst onto the national stage with the steely grace and resolve that has defined this country from its inception.
And with one speech, one simple and authentic life story, Destiny eclipsed the One and now we watch, we watch as the Id flails in insane mockery of everything America stands for. Tears of real and honest joy fell from my eyes as she spoke because she was me. She was my wife, she was my kids…she was America. She slips blithely through life, dealing with every adversity evenly, with the resolve and grace of every man, every woman and every child that ever put its nation in front of itself.
And the Id continues to scream. “Pig! Liar! Cheat! Novice! Whore!…. WOMAN!!” It screams these terms with derision, feeding the lost souls who are forever attached to it, not realizing that those with the ability to reason, those who think for themselves but are nonetheless attracted to the glossy hum of the One, are repulsed. We are all, at once point or another, all of the things he screams, and that fact does not lessen us. We are all Americans…We are all Destiny.
She is America. She is NOT perfect. She is NOT monolithic. She is NOT with you on every issue. You are NOT with her on every issue. But America she is and John McCain had the resolve, when faced with HIS first major decision, to put country first, to put country on the ticket, and to give the middle a place to call home.
“Thank you,” I say to you all. “I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating. Your anger, your hunger for something outside what you were offered did an amazing thing. It gave me my party back, and maybe, just maybe, John McCain will win this thing and help you get your party back.”
Issues count, but character counts more. Policy matters, but courage matters more. Who do you want to face the dark, wailing mass of insanity when the walls of reality start closing in? We know the answer, and America is waking up. Waking up to the Maverick, waking up to Destiny and waking up to the real hope, the real change, the real chance we have
TO
TAKE
OUR
COUNTRY
BACK.
I just watched the Towers fall again.
And I am hopeful because somehow, some way, the Hungry Cat, the War-Ravaged Maverick and Destiny’s Icy Grace have become a force, and my country may one day heal.
Take care,
Patrick
Patrick, so well said. PUMAs were called by this ticket, and McCain was willing to bet the house on history - not afraid of relying on a woman to get the job done. The One could not handle that.
Props to McCain for noticing that more than half the country is female and would like some representation….
Patrick, Patrick, Patrick
You made my heart turn over and tears gush from my eyes.
What a soul and brain you have.
What a beautiful tribute to John and Sarah. Thank “you” for sharing your thoughts with us.
If you don’t write for a living
you should
Thanks for this Patrick. The timing was perfect for me because I was thinking just this morning that if more Republicans came out and ADMITTED that BUSH was bad for America and did it on Public Forums more DEMS and Independents would vote McCain with no reservations.
I’m tired of Americans being so divided and Bush CAUSED a lot of it and OBAMA is doing much MORE of this. It has to stop!
I think McCain/Palin is a good first step.
Bush has been a lousy president for the GOP and for the nation. I voted for him in 2004 because the damn democrat party decided to jump off the “electability” cliff with John Kerry and the Iowa caucus participants. I actually think Kerry was a worse candidate for POTUS than Obama….all the ludicrous elitism with none of the charm.