Barack Obama has a coal problem. Responding to yesterday’s revelation that Barack Obama intends to bankrupt all plants that operate on energy generated from coal, Chris Hamilton, the Senior Vice President of the West Virginia Coal Association, called Obama’s comments in San Francisco “unbelievable.” I quote the West Virginia Record:

The senior vice president of the West Virginia Coal Association called Obama’s comments “unbelievable.”

“His comments are unfortunate,” Chris Hamilton said Sunday, “and really reflect a very uninformed voice and perspective to coal specifically and energy generally.”

Hamilton noted other times Obama and vice presidential candidate Joe Biden have made seemingly anti-coal statements.

“In Ohio recently, when Joe Biden said ‘not here’ about building coal-fired power plants — this is exactly what will happen,” Hamilton said. “Financing won’t be directed here. It will all go aboard for plants elsewhere in the world. The United Sates is importing more coal today from Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia than we ever have.

“If we’re going to create a situation where coal-fired power plants are at that much of a disadvantage, there will be new ones built. But as Biden said, just not here.”

In other words, the workers of West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana and all the other states in which coal is mined, processed and converted to electricity should be prepared to have their jobs outsourced under an Obama Presidency. That is not the change the economically battered Ohio River Valley needs. It is also not the change those of us who consume electricity need. Just imagine the cost of our energy bills if coal plants, which generates 49% of our electricity, are bankrupted and eliminated.

American Girl in Italy asks No Quarter readers to disseminate the following recording of Barack Obama’s statement on bankrupting coal plants far and wide.

And I offer more information on who will be affected by Obama’s reckless energy policy in an essay I published yesterday.

Clearly Obama’s statements will have electoral effects in West Virginia, where he has already garnered opposition from leaders of the industry that is that state’s main economic engine. But we must ensure voters in Colorado, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania are armed with these facts before they cast votes tomorrow.

Sarah Palin is doing everything within her power to ensure voters in the Ohio River Valley understand the implications and ramifications of Obama’s desire to bankrupt plants relying on energy produced from coal. I quote CBS News:

(MARIETTA, OHIO) - Seizing on a newly released audio tape picked up by the Drudge Report, Sarah Palin took the opportunity here in coal country to accuse Barack Obama of “talking about bankrupting the coal industry.”

“He said that, sure, if the industry wants to build coal-fired power plants, then they can go ahead and try, he says, but they can do it only in a way that will bankrupt the coal industry, and he’s comfortable letting that happen,” Palin said. “And you got to listen to the tape.”

The audiotape Palin was referring to was recorded by the San Francisco Chronicle in a Jan. 17 interview.

“Why is the audiotape just now surfacing?” Palin asked, leading someone in the crowd to shout, “Liberal media!”

“This interview was given to San Francisco folks many, many months ago,” Palin said. “You should have known about this, so that you would have better decision-making information as you go into the voting booth.”

Marietta, Ohio, is located on the Ohio River on the border between Ohio and West Virginia. This is the perfect place to discuss Obama’s desire to bankrupt the coal industry, for many of the workers in that city and its environs earn their wages in mines and in factories reliant on coal.

And Sarah and the audience in Marietta, Ohio, are correct: we only learned about this now as a result of the venal and obsequious media’s suppression of any and all information that is unfavorable to Barack Obama. Just witness CNN’s attempt to minimize the importance of this story:

Contrary to her attempts to portray a media cover-up, audio and video recordings of Obama’s January 17 sit-down with the Chronicle editorial board have been freely available online for more than nine months.

In the interview, Obama said that his “aggressive” cap-and-trade plan would charge polluters for every unit of carbon or greenhouse gas they emit, a plan that would render polluting coal plants financially unviable.

“So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can,” he said. “It’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.”

In the interview, Obama also made the case for alternative energy sources, adding that he does not believe coal production will be eliminated, and that he supports carbon capture and sequestration technologies.

John McCain also supports a market-based cap-and-trade proposal to reduce carbon emissions.

Regardless, Palin sought to use Obama’s words against him in a part of the country where coal has long been king.

“He said that, sure, if the industry wants to build coal-fired power plants, then they can go ahead and try, he says, but they can do it only in a way that will bankrupt the coal industry, and he’s comfortable letting that happen.”

The media, it seems, will not inform working class voters of Obama’s attempts to eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs and raise our electricity bills. But Sarah Palin and those who care about the economy of West Virginia and other states in the Ohio River Valley will. And so will we, for we understand that the elimination of jobs in a region of a country Obama already insulted with his comments in San Francisco about those bitter small town voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio who cling to guns and religion will not solve America’s economic woes. Indeed, it will only exacerbate the current recession.

Let us stand with West Virginia and the Ohio River Valley and defend those who rely on coal for their economic livelihood. This is certainly what Hillary would do. I quote the Sun-Times article I cite above:

After the quotes [about "bitter clingers"] surfaced on a political blog Friday, Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and GOP hopeful John McCain immediately decried them as evidence that Obama is “elitist” or “out of touch.”

“My opponent said that the people of Pennsylvania who faced hard times are bitter. Well, that’s not my experience,” Clinton told a crowd in Philadelphia. “As I travel around Pennsylvania, I meet people who are resilient, who are optimistic, who are positive, who are rolling up their sleeves … Pennsylvanians don’t need a president who looks down on them, they need a president who stands up for them.”

And yes, Barack Obama is an elitist politician who “looks down on” voters in the Ohio River Valley and in other areas of the country that rely on coal. Hillary Clinton does not, and neither does John McCain. Here is John McCain yesterday campaigning in Pennsylvania:

SCRANTON, Pa. — Campaigning in coal-rich Pennsylvania, GOP presidential nominee John McCain pledged this afternoon that if elected president, he would ensure that the U.S. exports coal overseas — something that U.S. policy already permits.

At the same time, the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee reportedly launched robocalls in Ohio, Pennsylvania and other coal states attacking Sen. Barack Obama’s position on coal.

Mocking Obama for a comment he made in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle in January — “The only thing I’ve said with respect to coal, I haven’t been some coal booster,” Obama had said — McCain promised the audience at the University of Scranton that he’s been a proud coal cheerleader in the past, and plans to be one in the future.

“My friends, you know what Senator Obama said about a year ago, he said he had not been a, quote, coal booster,” he said, as the crowd booed. “My friends, I’ve been a coal booster and it’s going to create jobs, and we’re going to export coal to other countries and we are going to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. That’s going to help restore the economy of the great state of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”

The robocalls have been placed, but we must ensure the voters understand that Obama desires to bankrupt the coal industry and increase the prices of our energy bills. We have one day, and this must be done. Circulate the video I cite above.

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[UPDATE]: Ohio Coal Association issues a scathing statement on Barack Obama’s statement. I quote:

COLUMBUS, Ohio, Nov 03, 2008 /PRNewswire–USNewswire via COMTEX/ — Mike Carey, president of the Ohio Coal Association (OCA), today issued the following statement in response to just-released remarks from Senator Barack Obama about the nation’s coal industry.

“Regardless of the timing or method of the release of these remarks, the message from the Democratic candidate for President could not be clearer: the Obama-Biden ticket spells disaster for America’s coal industry and the tens of thousands of Americans who work in it.

“These undisputed, audio-taped remarks, which include comments from Senator Obama like ‘I haven’t been some coal booster’ and ‘if they want to build [coal plants], they can, but it will bankrupt them’ are extraordinarily misguided.
“It’s evident that this campaign has been pandering in states like Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania to attempt to generate votes from coal supporters, while keeping his true agenda hidden from the state’s voters.

“Senator Obama has revealed himself to be nothing more than a short- sighted, inexperienced politician willing to say anything to get a vote. But today, the nation’s coal industry and those who support it have a better understanding of his true mission, to ‘bankrupt’ our industry, put tens of thousands out of work and cause unprecedented increases in electricity prices.

“In addition to providing an affordable, reliable source of low-cost electricity, domestic coal holds the key to our nation’s long-term energy security - a goal that cannot be overlooked during this time of international instability and economic uncertainty.

“Few policy areas are more important to our economic future than energy issues. As voters head to the polls tomorrow, it is essential they remember that access to reliable, affordable, domestic energy supplies is essential to economic growth and stability.”

The Ohio Coal Association (OCA) is a non-profit trade association representing the interests of Ohio’s underground and surface coal mining producers. The OCA represents nearly 40 coal producing companies and more than 50 Associate Members, which include suppliers and consultants to the mining industry, coal sales agents and brokers and allied industries. The Ohio Coal Association is committed to advancing the development and utilization of Ohio coal as an abundant, economic and environmentally sound energy source.

Representing 40 coal producing companies and more than 50 associate members in related industries, the OCA will deliver many Ohio votes to John McCain.

Words do matter, I guess.

As you probably also know, Mr. Fund has written a book, “Stealing Elections, Revised and Updated: How Voter Fraud Threatens Our Democracy.”

In 20 minutes following publication of this story — at 3:00 a.m. ET (Monday, Nov. 3, 2008) — BookTV.org (C-Span2) is airing a one-hour speech and Q&A with John Fund.

You may also watch the video at any time here at BookTV.org.

What else is going on so early in the morning? Have you caught the latest on the breaking news about Obama’s intentions to bankrupt coal-reliant businesses and industries? NOTE the states listed above in the categories; workers and businesses in all of those states, and more, could be devastated by Obama’s schemes.

Here’s what we know so far:

Among the LATEST NEWS: Sarah Palin is speaking out about Barack Obama and coal, according to Memeorandum.com.

If you missed our reporting on this breaking story, please check out:

• Truthteller’s Sunday afternoon story, “MEMO to Voters in States Producing and Relying On Coal: Obama Intends to Bankrupt Your Businesses and Your Industries,” and
• American Girl in Italy’s call to action, “ACTION ALERT - Obama has promised to bankrupt coal plants.”

We hope to publish more on this “hot” story later today.

Wyoming, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Texas, Montana, Illinois, Virginia, North Dakota, Colorado, Indiana, New Mexico, Utah, Ohio, Alabama and Arizona: these coal producing states will be adversely affected by Barack Obama’s energy policy.

Imagine mines closing, factories closing, jobs lost, towns abandoned, small businesses failing, pensions lost, wages dropping and widespread economic depression in states that rely on coal mining and processing. This is what Obama’s cap and trade system will engender in states such as WV, PA, MT, VA, ND, CO, IN, NM, OH and AZ. Just listen to this audio of Obama discussing how he will bankrupt factories and businesses that rely on power generated from coal when he was interviewed by the San Francisco Chronicle in January 2008:

[[[TAKE ACTION!! RIGHT NOW!
Start posting this video on sites in the coal based states: Virginia, Montana, Illinois, Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, New Mexico, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado.]]]

Here is the transcript:

Let me sort of describe my overall policy.

What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else’s out there.

I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.

That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches.

The only thing I’ve said with respect to coal, I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.

So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can.

It’s just that it will bankrupt them.“

Does Obama realize the number of jobs lost when he arrogantly states that plants will be bankrupted under his energy policy? Does he not understand the number of lives affected?

The Ohio River Basin is one area of the country that will be decimated as a result of Obama’s desire to bankrupt plants relying on coal.

And while the economy of the Ohio River Valley is decimated, the following regions of the country will witness no job growth, as the following proposed plants will never be built:

Permits for these proposed plants have already been cancelled:

The West will also be adversely affected by Obama’s reckless energy policy:

Bankrupting an entire industry will destroy the lives of Americans across the country. Both coal produces and consumers will have to fire employees, and this will create widespread job loss and increased economic recession.

More discussion on Obama’s desire to bankrupt coal producers and consumers is available at Memeorandum.

GREEN BAY, Wis. — Hoping to shore up support in his suddenly undependable backyard, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama flew here Monday to talk about how he’d handle economic crises as president.

Recent polls have shown that Wisconsin — once pretty solidly in Obama’s column — is now a statistical dead heat between Obama and Republican John McCain.

“You all know that you hold this election in your hands,” Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat who said he worked on ethics legislation with Obama, told a crowd of about 6,000 cheering Obama fans in the arena next to Lambeau Field. “We just barely won this state for Al Gore in 2000 and we just barely won this state for John Kerry in 2004.”

While it’s true that Obama has had an uptick in national polls over the last week, he is also on the defensive in more blue states. John McCain is locking down states like Ohio and Florida, and is now expanding the map into Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Obama, it appears, has a small advantage in New Mexico and Colorado.

National Public Radio reports that the battleground states are becoming fewer:

The number of battleground states has shrunk — from 19 to 14 — as Alaska, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana returned to their Republican roots.

In August, Obama led in the 14 states by 3 points. Now McCain leads in those states by 2, and the underlying political landscape has shifted a bit as well.

If national polls swing back to McCain, and there’s no reason to think they won’t, then we should expect McCain to take a small lead in Minnesota, Wisconsin and, perhaps, Pennsylvania.

Kerry beat Bush in Wisconsin by a razor-thin .38% or 11,384 votes of nearly 3 million cast, while Ralph Nader received just over 16,000 votes. The Nader campaign recently announced that Nader will be on the ballot in Wisconsin this year, having collected 3,500 signatures.

Although not as close as Wisconsin, two other swing states are worth watching. In 2004, Kerry beat Bush by 98,319 votes in Minnesota of almost 3 million cast, and in Pennsylvania by 144,248 votes out of 6 million cast, a 2.5% margin.

What is causing Obama such problems in swing states? NPR says it’s The Clinton Factor:

something else is holding Obama back: He still hasn’t won over enough of Hillary Clinton’s voters.

“One thing that Obama tried to do in his convention was unite the Democratic vote behind him, and it still hasn’t completely happened,” Bolger said. “Our survey found that of the voters who said they voted for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, 20 percent of them are still voting for John McCain.”

One Clinton voter is Louis Brandenburg, a heavy-equipment operator from Avella, Pa. He said he has made up his mind for November.

“Yeah, I guess so: Mr. Obama, I guess. I have no choice,” he said.

Even with little enthusiasm, Brandenburg — a Democrat — is sticking with his party. But plenty of his friends in southwestern Pennsylvania are very enthusiastic about Sarah Palin.

“There’s a lot of them who are going to vote for her and McCain because of the hunting issue,” he said. “I can’t understand what happened to our party; it just seems like the Republican Party is always the ones who back hunters and sportsmen, and all we get from the other one is flack about hunting and guns.”

————————————————————
Photographs of empty seats at the Obama rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin:

According to Jake Tapper of ABC News, “Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin packed the house last week in Green Bay, Wis., at the Resch Center.”

Is Axelrod right? Could it be McCain has energized his base but that Obama remains ahead?

Using Electoral-Vote.com’s numbers, I created a list of red states and compared Obama’s numbers to Kerry’s percentages in 2004. All but three of the state polls are post-Palin.

This is not a comprehensive list of all red states. However, I believe it’s a fair representation of reliable Republican states. Our purpose is to see if there’s been an uptick for McCain over Obama relative to the previous presidential election.

All battleground states are out, regardless of who won in 2004. Additionally, I did not include red states which Obama is now actively fighting for, like Virginia, or historically red states like New Hampshire, which Kerry won. In most states, there’s no difference in the relative position between Kerry’s final result and Obama’s current standing; in other states Obama is actually doing better than Kerry.

Let’s take a look at Axelrod’s assertion that red states are becoming redder:

As you can see, Obama is faring no worse than John Kerry did. In fact, the current state of the race is remarkably similar to the final results in 2004. It follows, then, that state polls reflect similar numbers as 2004. Obama’s weak numbers, as I believe Axelrod is implying, are not coming from intolerant red state voters. According to Rasmussen, McCain is leading Obama by approximately 2%, and in 2004 Bush beat Kerry by 2.4%. Obama is performing in Republican states about as well as any Democrat could be expected.

Contrary to Axelrod’s statement, Obama’s decline in national polling is not due to inordinately low numbers in deep-red states. Indeed, the opposite is true: Obama is under-performing in reliably Democratic states. As Truthteller demonstrates with the spreadsheet below, Obama is under-performing in blue states such as New York (population 20 million) and New Jersey (population 9 million). These high population Democratic states will skew national numbers far more than low population red states like North Dakota (population 640,000), while Republican Texas (population 24 million), where Obama is in nearly the same spot as Kerry, is easily offset by the densely populated California and Illinois, both states where Obama is doing very well. Additionally, Obama is trending down in the swing state of Ohio:

	New York	New Jersey	Minnesota	Pennsylvania	Ohio
McCain-Palin	41	45	45	47	48
Obama-Biden	46	48	45	47	45

Because of these weak blue- and swing-state numbers, Obama now has to defend more real estate than McCain. Truthteller writes:

So now Obama must invest precious and finite resources in states such as New Jersey and New York. And instead of campaigning in Arkansas, Nevada, Florida or Louisiana, he will hold events in Minnesota, a state that should be solidly Democratic in the current political climate. He may even have to campaign in New York now that McCain is within five points of the underperforming Obama.

And Hill Buzz sees a potential map-changer in McCain:

If McCain was only leading in Utah by 5 points, we’d say this election was over, and that McCain would lose GOP strongholds.

Instead, the opposite seems to be true. SoetorObama leads in NY by only 5 points, in NJ by 3 points, and in MI and PA by just 2 points.

To us, it looks like McCain could be the one changing the electoral map this year, with traditionally blue states having a better chance of turning red instead of the other way around.

Shortly after Obama’s grandiose trip to Europe, I wrote: “I think Obama would have been wise to go somewhere he lost big, like West Virginia, leaving behind his entourage and asking working people about their concerns in the streets and cafes of small town America.” There’s nothing earth-shattering in my suggestion, but I think that’s exactly what’s so troubling about the Obama campaign. It’s not the economy, it’s the arrogance. I think Obama’s odd trip to Europe — and the arrogance of selecting Biden over Hillary — is at the heart of many of Obama’s troubles today. The American people will vote for Ivy League candidates, but only those who come to their towns to listen and not to lecture.

Obama’s arrogance is now becoming a matter of concern for Democratic strategists. The statement below by an unnamed source in the British newspaper The Sunday Telegraph should send fear into the hearts of Obama’s supporters:

A senior Democratic strategist, who has played a prominent role in two presidential campaigns, told The Sunday Telegraph: “These guys are on the verge of blowing the greatest gimme in the history of American politics. They’re the most arrogant bunch Ive ever seen. They won’t accept that they are losing and they won’t listen.”

With this mentality, it’s no wonder Axelrod is blaming Obama’s woes on red states. Ani writes:

Of course there is a bunker mentality. Obama’s campaign manager, David Axelrod, must protect his carefully sculpted media creation at all costs. Their whole strategy has been to overwhelm their way into the presidency with huge rallies and concerts, presidential emblems, soaring rhetoric and platitudes.

216 for McCain-Palin, 217 for Obama-Biden, 105 Toss Ups: Obama’s lead in the electoral college has officially eroded. Here is Survey USA’s report about the state of electoral affairs in Washington state:

Democrat Barack Obama’s once double-digit lead in Washington state is no more, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle and KATU-TV Portland Oregon. In an election today, eight weeks till votes are counted, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 45%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago (before both candidates had named their running mates), Obama is down 2 points; McCain is up 1. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 8 weeks ago, Obama is down 6; McCain is up 6. Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today.

Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama’s once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.

The erosion of Obama’s once staggering lead is not limited to Washington state; it has also altered the landscape of Montana. I quote Rasmussen Reports:

John McCain has opened a double digit lead over Barack Obama in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Treasure State finds McCain leading by eleven, 53% to 42%.

That’s quite a change from late July when the race was a toss-up. Montana has voted for a Republican candidate in nine of the last ten presidential elections but Obama had made clear his intention to compete for the state’s three Electoral College votes. The candidate himself spent the Fourth of July in Butte, Montana and his campaign ran significant television advertising in the state. However, just before the Democratic National Convention, Obama stopped advertising in Montana and several other traditionally Republican states.

The erosion is also occuring in North Dakota. I quote Rasmussen Reports again:

Like neighboring Montana, North Dakota has become a lot friendlier to John McCain in the first polling conducted since Sarah Palin was nominated to be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters shows McCain with a 14-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 55% to 41%. In early July, the candidates were tied in the state and Obama was looking to the Dakotas and Montana as a way to expand the electoral map for Democrats. Now, the Democratic nominee appears to be more focused on traditional battleground states.

But North Carolina really bore the brunt of this displacement of geological proportions. I quote ABC 11 News in Raleigh-Durham:

In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.

In a blink of an eye, a veritable avalanche followed in the wake of Sarah Palin’s emergence. States once competitive were swept into McCain’s columns, while others, particularly those “traditional battleground states,” are quickly sliding toward the precipice. McCain is hovering above the fifty percent threshold in Missouri; he leads Obama by 1 point in Nevada; he is inching ahead of Obama in Michigan; McCain-Palin trounces the Democratic ticket in Florida by a seemingly insurmountable 8 points; the gap separating Obama and McCain in New Jersey is closing; and Ohio is teetering on the brink: unless Obama can move mountains, the prospect of a Democratic victory will be nothing more than a pebble plummeting into a Republican abyss.

No wonder why Democrats on Capitol Hill are panicking. And no wonder why Obama is resorting to some of the most deplorable tactics imaginable. But Obama is desperate, and desperate candidates will do and say anything in a vain attempt to reverse a course that can only be described as inexorable.

He’s been called “the Faulkner of crime fiction.” James Lee Burke’s novels are more than just brilliantly-plotted thrillers; they’re lyrical explorations of the American soul. He’s won the Edgar Award twice, been nominated for a Pulitzer, and seen three of his books made into films (the latest, In The Electric Mist With Confederate Dead, is due out this year and stars Tommy Lee Jones as Cajun detective Dave Robicheaux.) Now he’s back on the bestseller list with Swan Peak, the 17th book in the Robicheaux series.

Listen to the livestream broadcast tonight from 9pm to 10pm ET on NoQuarter Radio. The call-in number for questions is (347) 677-0792.

An audio archive of the program will be available on NQR immediately following the broadcast.

The US Presidential race this year is certainly topsy turvy with the number of battleground states higher this time around. In part that’s due to the erosion of the Republican brand. A year ago, most seasoned observers felt any Democrat would coast to the White House but that was before that any Democrat was Barack Obama. If George W. Bush destroyed the GOP, look no further than Barack Obama for the erosion in the Democratic Party’s decline.

The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he has pulled even with Barack Obama. The bad news for John McCain in Montana is that he is only even with Barack Obama in a state that George W. Bush carried by 20 or more points both times.

Montana last went for a Democrat in 1992 in the three way race of that year and before that in 1964. Two years ago, Montana elected Jon Tester, a Democrat, to the US Senate and it currently has very popular Democratic Governor in Brian Schweitzer.

From Rasmussen Reports:

The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he’s gained six points on Barack Obama over the past month. The bad news is that the race is essentially even in a state that George W. Bush won by 20-percentage points in 2004 and by 24 points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana’s three Electoral College votes, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot picking up 14%.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote in Montana while Obama earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s all tied up at 47%.

A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, up a point over the past month. For Obama, 53% now have a favorable view, down four points.

Those figures include 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 31% who think that highly of Obama. At the other end of the spectrum, just 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain but 29% hold such a view of Obama.

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

Obama is preferred by 86% of Democrats and McCain by 80% of Republicans. The two men are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. One interesting note in the data is that five percent of Republicans say they’d prefer some other candidate while only one percent of Democrats feel that way. Among unaffiliated voters, five percent prefer a third option over either McCain or Obama.

Adding to McCain’s challenge in this historically red state is the fact that Montana’s very popular Democratic Governor is cruising to victory in his re-election bid.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Montana voters say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win in November. Just nine percent think they’re trying to help McCain. These perceptions are shared by voters throughout the nation.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 64.8 % chance of winning Montana this November. At the time this poll was released, Montana is listed as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, Obama has been enjoying a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for several weeks.

I still think it is too early to focus on national polling numbers and to be frank the US presidential race is not one race but 51 separates races (actually a few more since both Nebraska and Maine elected their electors by Congressional district). In this regard, I believe it more insightful to focus on each race in each state than the overall popular vote. McCain can win the election and lose the popular vote.

From my blog, By The Fault.

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ORIGINAL POST:

The Obama campaign is telling reporters from major news organizations that the videotape of Michelle Obama railing against “whitey” at a panel alongside Nation of Islam maximum leader Louis Farrakhan is nothing but a “scurrilous lie,” according to one of those reporters who called for an answer.

But at the same time the Obama campaign has disseminated either a doctored or concocted transcript of the supposedly nonexistent videotape. Major Obama donors went to the campaign demanding explanations after the posting of my story on No Quarter about the contents of the videotape confirmed to me by several reliable sources, all Republicans with access to knowledge but who do not know each other.

So the campaign created a would-be transcript of the video it says doesn’t exist. In the Obama campaign produced transcript Michelle says “why’d he” instead of “whitey.” Very clever. Then the campaign sent this transcript to key Obamaton bloggers to circulate. And the campaign sent it to the donors to prevent them from having a nervous breakdown.

In other words, the Obama campaign is a two-faced operation, telling the national press one thing and using eager little bloggers as propaganda stooges. But now they’ve been caught in obvious dirty trickery. Will the press play along? The Obamaton bloggers who happily allowed themselves to be exploited have exposed themselves as just junior media whores.

Meanwhile, Obama’s political collapse is accelerating. Two new polls in the final primaries conducted by American Research Group show Obama’s fortunes in rapid decline. He was supposed to easily clean up in South Dakota and Montana, where he was ahead of Hillary, just a short time ago. he was supposed to run across the finish line with two clean wins and the crowd cheering. Now, he’s behind in South Dakota by a whopping 60 to 34, and barely holding on in Montana, just slightly ahead 44 to 40. What happened, Barack?

Looking at those terrible poll numbers we’re not surprised that Obama quit his church over the weekend. The Father Michael Pfleger anti-Hillary sermon at Obama’s church must not be going down too well.

And now we’re beginning to understand why Obama engaged in his thuggery at the Rules and Bylaws Committee, stealing delegates in Michigan that rightfully belonged to Hillary according to votes actually cast. Yup, looking at his bad poll numbers and rising unfavorabilities, Obama needs every delegate he can steal.

Then, out of further desperation, Obama spread a false story that Hillary was dropping out. He’s doing everything he can before the vote in South Dakota and Montana to try to depress Hillary’s turnout. Obama’s Big Lie has worked before. To listen to Obama, Hillary has been dropping out since the beginning of the campaign.

And behind all this is Obama’s fear of the Michelle “whitey” video about which he’s spreading two different stories–one to the mainstream press and another to his blogger-stooges. Lies, lies and more lies.

ORIGINAL POST:

The Obama campaign is telling reporters from major news organizations that the videotape of Michelle Obama railing against “whitey” at a panel alongside Nation of Islam maximum leader Louis Farrakhan is nothing but a “scurrilous lie,” according to one of those reporters who called for an answer.

But at the same time the Obama campaign has disseminated either a doctored or concocted transcript of the supposedly nonexistent videotape. Major Obama donors went to the campaign demanding explanations after the posting of my story on No Quarter about the contents of the videotape confirmed to me by several reliable sources, all Republicans with access to knowledge but who do not know each other.

So the campaign created a would-be transcript of the video it says doesn’t exist. In the Obama campaign produced transcript Michelle says “why’d he” instead of “whitey.” Very clever. Then the campaign sent this transcript to key Obamaton bloggers to circulate. And the campaign sent it to the donors to prevent them from having a nervous breakdown.

In other words, the Obama campaign is a two-faced operation, telling the national press one thing and using eager little bloggers as propaganda stooges. But now they’ve been caught in obvious dirty trickery. Will the press play along? The Obamaton bloggers who happily allowed themselves to be exploited have exposed themselves as just junior media whores.

Meanwhile, Obama’s political collapse is accelerating. Two new polls in the final primaries conducted by American Research Group show Obama’s fortunes in rapid decline. He was supposed to easily clean up in South Dakota and Montana, where he was ahead of Hillary, just a short time ago. he was supposed to run across the finish line with two clean wins and the crowd cheering. Now, he’s behind in South Dakota by a whopping 60 to 34, and barely holding on in Montana, just slightly ahead 44 to 40. What happened, Barack?

Looking at those terrible poll numbers we’re not surprised that Obama quit his church over the weekend. The Father Michael Pfleger anti-Hillary sermon at Obama’s church must not be going down too well.

And now we’re beginning to understand why Obama engaged in his thuggery at the Rules and Bylaws Committee, stealing delegates in Michigan that rightfully belonged to Hillary according to votes actually cast. Yup, looking at his bad poll numbers and rising unfavorabilities, Obama needs every delegate he can steal.

Then, out of further desperation, Obama spread a false story that Hillary was dropping out. He’s doing everything he can before the vote in South Dakota and Montana to try to depress Hillary’s turnout. Obama’s Big Lie has worked before. To listen to Obama Hillary has been dropping out since the beginning of the campaign.

And behind all this is Obama’s fear of the Michelle “whitey” video about which he’s spreading two different stories–one to the mainstream press and another to his blogger-stooges. Lies, lies and more lies.